NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series returns to Pocono Raceway in NE Pennsylvania for the running of this year’s Overton’s 400. The 21st points-race event of the season is set to get underway Sunday at 3 p.m. (ET) and will be broadcast on NBC Sports Network.
Last Sunday’s Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis turned out to be a very good day for Kasey Kahne with his first Cup victory in the past two seasons. Brad Keselowski finished second and Ryan Newman almost paid off as my +10000 long shot with a third-place run.
The following is a look at my top valued favorite, contender and long shot to win this Sunday afternoon’s Overton's 400 at Pocono based on betting odds provided by 5Dimes.
Top Valued Favorite
Some of the younger NASCAR Cup series drivers have routinely replaced Kevin Harvick as one of the top-three favorites on 5Dimes’ futures list to win each week, but with another trip to Pocono in the works he comes in as a +750 third-favorite to win this race. The No. 4 Ford has only made one trip to the Winner’s Circle this season, at Sonoma in a road race, but this team is still holding down the third spot in the current standings with 683 total points. Current form is solid with a sixth-place finish last week followed by a fifth-place run at New Hampshire. However, the biggest value in Harvick’s odds this week is a second-place finish the first race at Pocono this year.
Top Valued Contender
Jimmie Johnson has been one of the more streaky Cup series drivers this season with three victories in a span of seven races followed by just two runs in the top 10 in his last seven events. This might explain his +1100 betting odds to win this week, but given his ability to quickly turn things around on a dime I really like the value in those odds. The No. 48 Chevrolet is currently in 10th place in the standings with 564 total points. It has been awhile since Johnson has won at Pocono with his last victory coming in 2013, but I still like his chances to make a strong run at a fourth checkered flag this year come Sunday.
Top Valued Long Shot
The pressure is starting to mount for those drivers on the fringe of earning one of the 16 spots in the 2017 Cup series playoff. One driver in the spotlight this week is Clint Bowyer after Kahne’s victory last week put him in almost a must-win situation to keep his playoff hopes alive. Bowyer’s odds to win this week are long at +4400, but I do like the value in that number. The veteran driver of the No. 14 Ford is in 11th place in the standings with 533 total points, but when you factor in previous wins he is now on the outside looking in. This team has posted four runs inside the top five this season, and it could be primed to finally get that win it so desperately needs.
Odds For Other Notable Drivers
The top favorite to win this week’s race is Kyle Busch at +350 betting odds despite the fact that he has yet to win a Cup series point race this season. Martin Truex Jr. has three victories on this year’s resume, and his odds to add another one this week are the second-best on the board at +450. Following Harvick (+750) is Kyle Larson at +850, and joining Johnson at +1150 are Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott. Both Matt Kenseth and Keselowski are listed at +1350 odds to win this week.Talk NASCAR Betting In Our Racing Forum