Jimmie Johnson completed a rare season-sweep at Daytona last Saturday night with a victory in the Coke Zero 400. Tony Stewart raced his was to a second-place finish and Kevin Harvick finished third. Our top value pick to win this race at +2000 was Greg Biffle but he was nowhere to be seen when the checkered flag waved with a 17th-place finish after starting 10th.
There are a pair of co-favorites to win this race at +500. The first name on this list is well on his way to claiming his sixth career Sprint Cup title. Jimmie Johnson has done just about everything right in building a 49-point lead in the Sprint Cup standings through the first half of the season with a total of 658 points. The No. 48 car has already made four trips to victory lane in point races and five if you count its win in this year’s All-Star Race. Johnson begins the second half of his quest to regain the title at a track where he has an average finishing position of 9.5. He last won here in 2010 and he finished second in his last race here in 2012.
The other betting odds favorite to win on Sunday at +500 is Denny Hamlin. It has been a rough ride for the No.11 car this season especially when it comes to wrecks. He already missed four races earlier this season due to injuries and has been taken out of the last two races as result of a wreck. The main reason for such favorable odds for this race is Hamlin’s recent performance at New Hampshire. He finished second in this race last season and then went on to win the second race at this track later in the year. His average finishing position here is 7.9.
One of two third-favorites to win this race at +800 is veteran Sprint Cup driver Jeff Gordon. The No. 24 car is still looking for its first victory of the season and is currently on the outside looking in as far as making the Chase, but it does have four top-five finishes on the year. Gordon is another driver whose odds to win have been heavily influenced by his past effort at New Hampshire. He has not won here since way back in 1998, but he has not finished worse than sixth in six of his last eight Sprint Cup races at this track.
Clint Bowyer has been under the radar all season long and has yet to make a trip to victory lane, but when you look at the current standings, he has been able to race his No. 15 car all the way to second-place with a total of 609 points. He has come close to claiming a checkered flag a number of times this year with seven top-five finishes. Bowyer holds the best sports betting value based on his current form, but he did finish third in this race last season and fourth in the second race here in 2012.
Top Value Pick
Any time you can get longer odds on a driver that has already won four Sprint Cup point races this season it is worth a small play. That is why at +1500 Matt Kenseth is this week’s top value pick to win. The No. 20 car is currently sitting in sixth-place in the standings with 540 points after adding another five top-10 finishes to his four wins. The reason for the longer odds is a less than stellar record at this track. Kenseth has never won here before and has an average finishing position of 14.0, but his current form alone makes him worth the risk.