NASCAR All-Star Race Prop Picks: Matchups and Top 3s

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the annual All-Star Race on Sunday. Let’s dive in with our NASCAR All-Star Race prop picks.

We’re now one-third of the way through the NASCAR Cup Series season, and that means it’s time for the All-Star Race. Texas Motor Speedway, a 1.5-mile oval, will host the event for the second consecutive season.

Kyle Larson won last year’s All-Star Race and the Fall Texas race later in 2021. The reigning champion of the Cup Series now has two All-Star Race wins to his name, one at Texas and the other at the similarly designed Charlotte Motor Speedway. But we’re not targeting him this year — we’re targeting Toyotas. 

Here are my top prop picks for NASCAR’s All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, Texas (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

NASCAR All-Star Race Prop Picks

Denny Hamlin (-110) vs. Tyler ReddickChristopher Bell (-115) vs. Joey LoganoTop 3: Kyle Larson (+150)

SEE ALSO: NASCAR All-Star Race Picks and Preview

NASCAR All-Star Race Prop Predictions

Hamlin (-110) vs. Reddick

First, we’ll target Hamlin against a Ford. The Toyotas have looked fantastic at the 1.5-mile intermediate tracks this season. Last weekend at Kansas, every Toyota recorded a top 10 finish. Four recorded top 5 results. Hamlin finished fourth himself, too. 

Toyota didn’t dominate at Las Vegas earlier this season, but they have caught up as the season has progressed. Chevrolet owned the day in Nevada on Mar. 6, but not Reddick — he didn’t lead a lap and finished behind a Toyota and a Ford. Reddick then finished 30th at Kansas after blowing a tire.

There's also another reason to target this prop. Tyler Reddick hasn’t even qualified for the All-Star Race yet! He’ll need to run well in the All-Star Open to earn a spot in Sunday’s event. Although I expect Reddick to qualify, he’ll have some extra wear on his tires. That could be a problem since he is yet to finish better than seventh at a 1.5-mile track this year.

Hamlin is correctly favored in this market, but I’m surprised that he isn’t favored by a bigger margin. Let’s ride the hot hand and back him to do well in his No. 11 Toyota.

Bell (-115) vs. Logano

Second, we’ll target Bell against a Ford. While Toyota's have looked slightly better than Chevrolets, they’ve looked dominant compared to Ford's. No Ford car finished inside the top 10 at Kansas, and only one did so at Las Vegas. Logano finished 17th and 14th, respectively.

Bell edged Logano in both events. He finished 10th in Las Vegas and fifth in Kansas. He even led a solid chunk of laps — 37 of them — in Kansas. Logano led in neither race, and Ford has led a total of 18 laps between Kansas and Las Vegas combined.

Bell has even been better than Logano here lately. In the last three points-paying races at Texas, Bell has an average finish of 9.0 with two top 5s. In contrast, Logano has an average finish of 14.3 with one top 5.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Top 3: Larson (+150)

This is a misprice for the ages.

Larson has finished no worse than first at Texas Motorsports since he joined Hendrick Motorsports. And while it’s true that the Toyotas have more momentum than the Chevrolets heading into the All-Star race, Larson did just finish second at Kansas. So even if the bowties are at a slight disadvantage, Larson has the talent to outperform his equipment.

He is a +600 favorite to win this race at DraftKings, but BetMGM has him as a +500 favorite. Further, BetMGM has Larson at -110 for a top 3 finish! That means we’re getting a near-even prop well into the plus money at DraftKings.

Larson has also been great at Texas and Charlotte Motor Speedways, both of which are 1.5-mile quad-oval tracks. Larson has four wins at the two tracks in six starts dating back to 2019.

He may not win Sunday’s event, but he has a better chance of recording a top 3 result than the books would have you think.

Where to Bet on NASCAR All-Star Race Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

NASCAR All-Star Race picks made on 5/19/2022 at 7:01 p.m. ET.