Australian Open Final: Rafael Nadal vs. Daniil Medvedev Picks

Aiming for a record 21st Grand Slam title, Rafael Nadal will strut into the Australian Open final brimming with confidence after coming through some wars with very tricky opponents. Meeting him there will be Daniil Medvedev, who will look for his second career Grand Slam. We tee it up with our Nadal-Medvedev Australian Open final picks.

It seems like yesterday that Nadal had heat stroke and lost nine pounds in a five-set win over Denis Shapovalov. That’s because the Spaniard looked like a spring chicken running all over the court and celebrating with flair at the end of a four-set beatdown in his next match against Matteo Berrettini. There aren’t many things that can slow Nadal at this point with the fitness concerns behind him.

Medvedev has also had a tumultuous road here. He had to dig for a four-set win over Nick Kyrgios in the second round, then he had to fight off the tough Botic van de Zandschulp and perhaps a bit of a back injury against Maxime Cressy in what was a tight four-set affair. After all that, he fell behind two sets to love to Felix Auger-Aliassime and looked for the world to be out of the tournament.

Both men have fought back from the brink of elimination to set up an impossible final, and it should deliver.

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Here are my picks and predictions for Sunday’s Australian Open final between Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Match Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 30, 3:30 a.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: Melbourne, Australia

Nadal vs. Medvedev Odds Analysis

The lines on this match are different everywhere you go, but Medvedev opened at -190 pretty much across the board with Nadal +165 on the other side. The line has fluctuated with the Russian initially taking money and getting out to around -205 before the Nadal money pushed this line a bit closer, to Medvedev -190.

Nadal vs. Medvedev Picks

Medvedev -2.5 games (-135) ?????Under 40.5 games (-120) ????

Nadal vs. Medvedev Predictions

Medvedev -2.5 (-135)

This matchup isn’t a good one for Nadal. Sure, he’s 3-1 lifetime against Medvedev, but a lot has changed since he first defeated him back in early 2019. The Russian has become more calculated and an even-better defender, and on top of that has grown in confidence.

After a dusting at the Rogers Cup, Medvedev gave Nadal a real fight at the US Open, nearly erasing a double break in the fifth set. His inexperience clearly got the best of him, and that was also the case at the 2019 ATP Finals where he led 5-1 and failed to serve out the match twice, while overcome with negative emotion. He won their most recent meeting in 2020 and he should win again here pretty handily.

Medvedev plays a lot like Novak Djokovic, who has owned Nadal historically. While the Spaniard is 28-30 against Djokovic, 10 of his wins were on clay. If you take away that surface he’s 10-22, and at the Australian Open it’s even more grim.

He does not do well against a backboard like this who can out-defend him. His incredible digs won’t have the same effect when his opponent can read him and get into position to get it back into play. On top of that, the Nadal serve shouldn’t be as effective as it has been all week given Medvedev’s returning.

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Under 40.5 (-120)

I think Medvedev will win in three or four sets which makes this total just a bit too high for my liking. The history between these two will surely play a part in the total being what it is, but to me this head-to-head is trending in the wrong direction for the Spaniard.

Nadal's looping forehand should sit up to be crushed by Medvedev, who is also a bit fresher than we’d think due to the fact that he has barely had to work on his service games. Nadal’s backhand has also misfired a good bit during this run at the Aussie Open and any hint of trouble is going to be an issue against someone who makes you play as many balls as Medvedev.

I also think the fatigue could creep in just a little bit here for an aging Nadal. I’ll take the younger player with the otherworldly game and the matchup advantage.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Nadal-Medvedev picks made on 1/29/2022 at 11:42 a.m. ET.