Mystics vs. Storm WNBA Playoffs Game 1 Picks: Who Will Jump Out to Early Series Lead?
Over 80% of the handle wagered on the spread likes the Seattle Storm to cover as short home favorites in Thursday’s series opener against the Washington Mystics. Here are our Mystics-Storm picks.
The opening round of the 2022 WNBA playoffs continues on Thursday night with another doubleheader. The nightcap features a Game 1 matchup between the Mystics and Storm.
Just three seasons removed from winning the first championship in franchise history, the Mystics (21-15 against the spread, 13-23 Over/Under) enter this year’s playoffs as the No. 5 seed. Washington closed out the regular season with consecutive wins over Indiana. The Mystics will aim to carry that momentum into Thursday night’s series opener out west.
Meanwhile, the Storm (18-18 ATS, 21-15 O/U) will undoubtedly be happy to return home to Climate Pledge Arena after finishing out the regular season with three straight road games. Seattle did manage to win the first two of those contests to hold off Washington and earn the four-seed. Being able to host Games 1 and 2 of this first-round series could prove to be massive.
Here are my WNBA picks and predictions for Thursday night’s playoff game between the Mystics and Storm (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Mystics vs. Storm Game Info
Date: Thursday, Aug. 18, 10 p.m. ET
Coverage: ESPN2
Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
Mystics vs. Storm Odds Analysis
Though many of the other series-opening games have experienced significant line movement, that's not the case for this contest. The point spread in favor of Seattle, and the Storm continue to sit as the consensus 4-point home favorites.
The total has experienced a very slight adjustment from the opening line of 159. However, the half-point move down to the current consensus of 158.5 is hardly significant in nature.
At DraftKings, the Storm have attracted an overwhelming 88% of all money wagered on the point spread.
Mystics vs. Storm Picks
Mystics vs. Storm ATS Pick
Storm -4 (-110)
The Storm won two of three regular-season meetings between these teams outright, and also covered the spread in all three contests. It’s worth noting that the Storm actually closed as underdogs for each of the two games played in Washington. Despite losing the third and final head-to-head matchup, Seattle still managed to stay with the 3.5-point spread.
Considering that two of the three meetings this season were decided by five points or less, the Game 1 line of Storm -4 has to be considered quite accurate. That said, it does seem a bit unlikely that Seattle would win Thursday’s contest by anything less than four points.
The Storm will be playing at home in front of one of the best fanbases in the WNBA. They have the league’s leading scorer, Breanna Stewart, on their side. Seattle also has plenty of motivation to win and avoid having to travel all the way to the east coast for a winner-take-all Game 3.
In terms of championship pedigree and playoff experience, the edge clearly belongs to the Storm. While the Mystics do have former league MVP, Elena Delle Donne, in the mix this is hardly the same cast of characters that surrounded her during the 2019 title run.
Will the moment prove to be too big for young players like center Shakira Austin? While Washington has to consider this as a possibility, the Storm’s veteran core has been here plenty of times before.
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Mystics vs. Storm O/U Pick
Under 158.5 (-110)
The current total of 158.5 is extremely low compared to what is typical for games around the league. Considering the style that both of these teams tend to play, it makes perfect sense.
On the season, 23 of the Mystics’ 36 games stayed Under the betting total. Washington’s greatest strength is its team defense. The Mystics led the league in both overall defensive rating and scoring defense in the regular season. The 75.9 points they allowed on a per-game basis were two fewer than the next-best average.
Not to be outdone, the Storm ranked both third in defensive rating and scoring defense during the WNBA regular season. Seattle’s defense ceded 78.4 points per game on the year. This average checks in three full points ahead of the fourth-best defense in terms of points allowed. Case in point, the Mystics, and Storm (along with Connecticut) were easily the top three defensive teams in the league.
Something else to consider is the average pace of the two teams, especially for the Mystics. Washington ranked as the slowest team in the league, averaging only 78.38 possessions per 40 minutes.
Given that the Storm have generally played at a tempo that matches the preference of their opponents, there is a great chance that this game will turn into a slow-paced defensive rock fight.
Mystics vs. Storm Prop Bet
Storm -6 (+110)
This prop generally follows the same handicapping ideas as our prediction for Seattle to cover the 4-point spread. The Storm posted a 13-5 straight-up record at Climate Pledge Arena during the regular season. The 13 victories included a 14-point romp over the Mystics back in late June.
In reality, that double-digit win was largely the norm for Seattle when playing at home. Of the Storm’s 13 home wins this season, all but two came by a final margin of eight points or more. The team outscored opponents by nearly 13 points per game in home wins for the year.
Considering all of this, so long as the Storm win Game 1 of this series outright, a plus-money wager on the final margin to be six points or more should have a great chance at cashing.
Where to Bet on Mystics vs. Storm
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Mystics-Storm picks made 8/18/2022 at 3:32 p.m. ET
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