Monster Win Could be Busch's in Sunday's Race at Dover

dover

David Schwab

Wednesday, May 2, 2018 6:19 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 2, 2018 6:19 PM UTC

Sunday marks the first race this season at the Monster Mile as NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series rolls into Dover International Speedway for the AAA 400 Drive for Autism.

NASCAR: AAA 400 Drive for Autism Preview & Picks

Joey Logano posted his first Cup Series victory of the season last Sunday at Talladega as one of the top three favorites on the board. Kurt Busch (not Kyle) finished second and Chase Elliott made his way into the money for the second straight race by taking third.

Using the betting odds at 5Dimes to win the Cup Series race at Dover this Sunday (2 p.m. ET; FOX Sports 1), the following three drivers offer the best value on the board in my book.

Top-Valued Favorite: Kyle Busch +350

I backed off Busch’s longer odds to win last week’s race at Talladega after cashing three straight winning tickets during his recent three-race winning streak. He finished 13th last Sunday after starting from the 19th position. I am getting right back on that wagon this week given how dominant the No. 18 Toyota has been this season with its driver at top form. Through the first 10 Cup Series events, this team has seven top-five finishes.

Another big reason I think Busch can get back to his winning ways is his recent performance at Dover. Over his last five trips around the Monster Mile, he has placed second twice to go along with a victory in the second race at this track last season.

Top-Valued Contender: Chase Elliott +850

I went with Elliott quite a few times last season as one of my top contenders based on the value in his odds. While he failed to pay off with a victory, he remained competitive the entire year with 12 runs inside the top five. This was also on his way to a fifth-place finish in the final Cup Series point standings in just his second full-time season racing at NASCAR’s highest level. I have fallen back to a wait-and- see position when it comes to betting on the No. 9 Chevrolet through the first 10 events, but with last Sunday’s third-place run at Talladega on the heels of a second-place run at Richmond the week before, now is the time to pull the trigger on this value play.

Elliott has four career runs at Dover in a Cup Series event and he has been able to work his way inside the top five in all four races. His best finish was second in the second race here last season.

Top-Valued Longshot: Ryan Blaney +2250

Picking a longshot to win at Dover is tough to do given how this track has been dominated by the favorites over the past several years. Blaney has been on my radar screen at longer odds this season with three previous runs inside the top five. This includes a third-place finish at Martinsville and a fifth-place finish at Fort Worth to give the No. 12 Ford some better consistency in its overall results. This is another one of NASCAR’s other young guns running in his third full Cup Series season. He broke through last year with a victory at Pocono to earn a spot in the 2017 playoff.

Blaney’s limited track record at Dover includes three runs outside the top 20 with one finish inside the top 10, but that is why they call these valued longshot picks.

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