Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes have proven to us why they are six time world champions as they cruised to their 3rd race win of the season after four rounds. Will Red Bull and Max Verstappen put the pressure on in Monaco or will Mercedes claim the top spot for the fifth time in seven races?
Formula 1 Monaco GP
Sunday, May 23rd, 2021 – 9:00 AM EST at Circuit De Monaco
Lewis Hamilton was good for us again last time for our racing picks, as he cashed our race winner bet +110 and race winner to qualify on pole position at -130. We pointed out last time that the Mercedes race strategist was better than the Red Bull race strategist and it proved so to be again in Catalunya.
As Catalunya is a difficult track to beat, there weren’t many overtaking opportunities and as a result, most drivers finished in and around their qualifying positions. In one of the day’s tests, Finnish veteran Kimi Raikkonen parked his car in 12th place after starting 17th on the grid, which was the most positions won during the race. The greatest number of lost positions is for Spaniard Fernando Alonso, who started tenth and finished 17th.
There are now 14 points separating championship leader Hamilton and 2nd place Verstappen. This could be the Dutch rider’s chance to capitalize as Hamilton doesn’t have the best record in Monaco, he only won 3 times in 13 races, which may sound pretty good, but by Hamilton’s standards, it’s an average in the best of cases.
Circuit Info and Characteristics
The Monaco GP, one of the most iconic races in Formula 1. It is one of only three “triple crown” races in the world of motorsports. The triple crown, for those of you who don’t know, is awarded to the driver who wins the Monaco GP, Le Mans 24 hours and Indianapolis 500. The only driver in history to win the triple crown was Britain’s Graham Hill. The current F1 driver Fernando Alonso has completed 2 of the 3, the Indianapolis 500 has been elusive for the Spaniard and, although he has tried to win it three times, he has not yet finished within the top 20.
The Monaco GP has been raced 77 times, with one side of the current circuit covering 2,074 miles. Sunday’s race will be 78 laps. Legendary F1 driver Ayrton Senna has won the most Monaco GP with a total of 6 victories to his name.
The track shows no mercy as there are no runoff areas or gravel pits: if you crash, you’re out. There has been an average of 3.2 DNF (dit not finish) in the previous five races here, but the last two races produced 1 DNF, which is very rare, and we should expect to see a lot more than that in this Sunday race.
Previous Monaco Race Winners
- 2019-Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
- 2018-Daniel Riccardo (Red Bull)
- 2017-Sebasitan Vettel (Ferrari)
- 2016-Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
- 2015-Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
Favorite Prop Pick
Monaco is a merciless track and a mistake means that you are most likely watching the race from your garage or taking an early shower. With only two DNF’s in the previous two races at Monaco, we can’t help but feel like it’s way below average and we should get back to average this Sunday. In fact, this season as a whole has been well below average in terms of DNF’s with only a total of six this season as a whole.
Monaco could finally be the place to catch a lot of these inexperienced drivers, for us the odds are too great in this case at +250 for 15 OR 16 drivers to qualify as the end of the race. That means we need 4 or 5 drivers to not finish to cash our ticket. This seems like a good value, especially on a track like Monaco.
Free Formula1 Prop Pick: Between 15 and 16 Drivers To Be Classified +250 with the best online sportsbooks.
Official Best Bet
If you looked at the best bet before reading this, you’d think I’m crazy, but listen to me, excluding the two races that Vettel didn’t finish in Monaco, he’s finished within the top 10 the other nine times, and when we dig a little deeper we see that finished on the podium in another seven of those nine.
However, he clearly has peace here and he seems to enjoy this track a lot, you don’t go up those kinds of numbers unless you are fast on that track. His Aston Martin is a bit of a concern this time around, especially considering the fact that he still hasn’t finished in the top ten this season, but hopefully, he could end up scoring some points.
You may also think I’m crazy, but I have the strange feeling that Vettel will finish in the top ten or not finish at all, His best price for not finishing the race is +250 for those who want a small bet on the touch. It even creates a coverage opportunity if he goes 2U in the top 10 and 1U in the DNF.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.