MMA Betting: UFC 199 Weidman vs Rockhold Early Odds Preview

Jason Lake

Monday, May 16, 2016 6:00 PM UTC

Monday, May. 16, 2016 6:00 PM UTC

The early MMA odds are up for next month's intriguing UFC 199 card at the Forum in Inglewood. Can Chris Weidman take his Middleweight title back from Luke Rockhold?

I love it when a plan comes together. All four of our MMA picks for Saturday's big UFC 198 card in Brazil cashed in, bookended by underdog victories from Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+205 on the closing line) and new Heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic (+145). We even made enough money to throw a superkick party here at the ranch. SUPERKICK~!

Now we pivot to the next pay-per-view, UFC 199 on Saturday, June 4 at the formerly-fabulous Forum in Inglewood, California. What, no Staples Center? Hmmm. Too bad, because we've got two title fights coming up: Chris Weidman gets his rematch against Luke Rockhold for the Middleweight strap, and Dominick Cruz will defend his Bantamweight belt against the California Kid, Urijah Faber. Also appearing: B.J. Penn, Dan Henderson, and many other familiar names. So is there any early value on our UFC odds board?


It's Not Easy Being Green
Perhaps. As we go to press, only three of the fights have odds available: the two title fights, and the Lightweight bout between Dustin Poirier and Bobby Green. That one has Poirier (19-4 lifetime, 11-3 UFC) favored at -200 over Green (23-6 lifetime, 4-1 UFC), another California native who fights out of nearby Fontana.

Poirier has won three fights since returning to the Lightweight division following his loss to Conor McGregor (-300 at the close) two years ago. Green is coming off a loss to Esdon Barboza (–160), also in 2014. He had to pull out of his last two scheduled fights because of injuries, including a badly torn quad. We're leaning toward Poirier in this matchup. He's on a new contract with the UFC, and the odds have moved slowly in his direction since the open.


California, Rest in Peace
The two title bouts are very interesting, for different reasons. Way back in 2007, Faber (33-8 lifetime, 9-4 UFC) choked out a fresh-faced Cruz (21-1 lifetime, 4-0 UFC) to defend his WEC Featherweight championship. However, Faber has lost all three of his title matches in the Octagon – one of those was against Cruz (–210) five years ago at UFC 132. There's a lot of chalk on Cruz at –600 for the rubber match. He'll probably beat Faber, but we might be inclined to bet the Over on the round total once the full set of odds is released.

That leaves the main event. Rockhold (15-2 lifetime, 5-1 UFC) was a +125 underdog when he beat Weidman (13-1 lifetime, 9-1 UFC) by TKO for the Middleweight strap at UFC 194. Now Rockhold is priced at –200 for the rematch. That seems a little expensive, especially after he opened at –175. Their first fight was pretty even until halfway through, when Weidman whiffed on a wheel kick and Rockhold started smothering him. Again, we'll hold off until the full slate of odds is available, but with the lines steaming in Rockhold's direction, waiting for a better price seems to be the best option regardless.

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Free UFC Pick:  Rockhold -205
Best Line Offered: at YouWager
Record: 5-0 ML, 1-1 Totals (+6.50 units)

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