MMA Betting Preview: Tate vs. Nunez Props At UFC 200

Jason Lake

Thursday, July 7, 2016 12:43 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 7, 2016 12:43 PM UTC

Miesha Tate holds the Women's Bantamweight title, and the UFC odds say she'll keep it after facing Amanda Nunes this Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

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Is it really UFC 200 already? It feels like yesterday I was dipping into my student loans to buy the first Ultimate Fighting Championship pay-per-view. And didn't Brock Lesnar just beat Frank Mir at UFC 100? My sources tell me that was seven years ago. That's what too much Sailor Jerry will do to you.

Our colleague Swinging Johnson has you covered with Lesnar's return to the Octagon, as well as the main event of the evening between Daniel Cormier and Jon Jones. But the card at UFC 200 is stacked with must-see fights, including the Women's Bantamweight title bout between champion Miesha Tate and challenger Amanda Nunes. At press time, Tate is a –250 favorite on the UFC odds board; however, let's take a look at some of the available props to see if we can snag a bargain or two.


25 Minutes or Less
Right off the bat, if you're willing to risk –250 on Tate (18-5 lifetime, 5-2 UFC), you might as well take the extra step to –278 and pick this fight not to go to a decision. Tate is one of the best in her division, but she needed some good fortune to slip over Holly Holm and win the title this past March, applying a rear-naked choke in the dying minutes to pay out at +215.

Nunes (12-4 lifetime, 5-1 UFC) is certainly worth a look as the underdog. But Nunes tends to run out of gas pretty quickly – if she doesn't put you away in the first round, which she did in four of her five UFC victories. Yes, her last fight went the distance, a unanimous decision over Valentina Shevchenko (–130) in March. That was three rounds; Saturday's fight is five rounds. Someone is very likely to lose before those 25 minutes are up.


Hurry Up and Win
In theory, betting the UNDER on the total number of rounds would be worth a look, but the total for Saturday's bout has been set at 1.5, with the UNDER priced at +200. That's a pretty small window to fit through. Every one of Tate's seven fights in the Octagon went it into the third round – including her loss to Ronda Rousey in 2013, and Rousey made her name putting away opponents in Round 1.

That +200 price is pretty tempting, mind you. But we're taking the safer route with our UFC picks. The women's divisions are still in their relative infancy, and it's difficult to gauge just how well Tate and Nunes stack up against each other. We could see the challenger score a flash knockout; if she doesn't, Tate should be able to put a fading Nunes on her back and get the victory. It just might take a couple of rounds, that's all.

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Free UFC Pick: Fight doesn't go to decision (–278)
Best Line Offered: at William Hill
Record: 7-0 ML, 1-1 Totals, 1-0 Props (+9.50 units)

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