After the wild ride that was UFC 205, MMA fans won’t get much of a break with two cards this Saturday as UFC Fight Night 99 and UFC Fight Night 100 are set to take place. That means that there are a ton of fights to sift through to find betting value.
Let’s start with the two main events.
At UFN 99, Gegard Mousasi will look to exact revenge against Uriah Hall for knocking him out in the second round of their 2015 fight. Aside from that loss, Mousasi had been on a roll and has looked excellent since with victories over Thales Leites, Thiago Santos and a one-sided decimation of Vitor Belfort. Hall hasn’t looked all that great since he left The Ultimate Fighter with a ton of potential that he seemingly hasn’t lived up to. Since knocking out Mousasi, Hall has lost two straight against Robert Whitaker and Derek Brunson, with the later knocking him out in the first round.
With Mousasi as high as a -600 in the UFC Odds, it’s nearly impossible to justify any reason to put money down on him. You could take a flier on Hall at +445, but he simply hasn’t been impressive in his past few fights. Could he duplicate the success he had in their first meeting? Sure. But we’ve been waiting for things to click for Hall for several years and it just hasn’t panned out. This is more about clearing a path for Mousasi to challenge for the middleweight title than anything else.
The UFN 100 main event finds Ryan Bader and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira going at it again six years later. Aside from a shellacking from Anthony Johnson, Bader has been very impressive. Since losing to Glover Teixiera in 2013, Bader has gone 6-1 with victories over Rashad Evans, Phil Davis and Ovince Saint Preux. He’s been patiently waiting to get his name called for a light heavyweight title shot and could get closer than he’s ever been with a victory over Lil Nog. Nogueira hasn’t been quite as successful. He’s gone 1-2 in his last three fights and hasn’t looked remotely close to the guy who had an excellent run in Pride FC. With Bader as a -350 favorite, there’s not enough value in going for the money line. However, with the line as high as +170 for the fight to go over 1 ½ round, that’s something you could definitely put some money on.
Bader may have knocked out Ilir Latifi in his last fight, but he hasn’t scored a finish in three years prior to that. He’s always relied heavily on his wrestling to get him through fights and considering that these two have dueled to a decision before, it’s very possible that it will happen again.
Elsewhere, you’ll find a few fights with value but there are a couple at UFN 99 that catched my eye.
Thomas Almeida vs. Albert Morales under 1 ½ rounds at +100.
Almeida is a knockout artist and will be looking to make a statement after being starched by Cody Garbrandt in his last fight. Before losing to Garbrandt, Almeida had finished his last three opponents in less than two rounds. His knockout rate is ridiculously high (16 in 21 wins) and although Morales is unbeaten, he hasn’t faced anybody with that kind of power. I don’t expect him to waste much time getting rid of Morales at
There’s also an interesting fight between McGregor protégé Artem Lobov and Teruto Ishihara that could find one of them staring at the lights by the end of the night. Lobov isn’t necessarily a knockout artist, but he loves to try and finish fights with his right hand while eight of nine of Ishihara’s victories have come inside the distance. The under on this fight going a round and a half is currently at +140 and is worth taking a shot at.