MLS Week 6 Rundown: Grab Your Most Value Soccer Picks & Prop Bets

Kevin Stott

Thursday, April 7, 2016 8:06 PM GMT

There will be six games on Week 6 of the 2016 MLS season on Saturday and three more on Sunday. Here is our weekly MLS picks Rundown with thumbnail sketches of the the slate.

Friday, April 8, 2016

Philadelphia Union vs. Orlando SC
3-Way Odds: Philadelphia +125, Orlando SC +229, Draw +229 (BetVictor)
Total: 2½ Over -111, Under -117 (William Hill)

These two teams have played just twice with OCSC just expanding into Major League Soccer last season and there has only been 1 goal scored—0 from Open Play—in the two meetings (PHI 1-0 ORL, ORL 0-0 PHI), coming from the Union’s Sébastien Le Toux on a PK at PPL Park as GK Andre Blake registered a Clean Sheet in the last game of the Regular Season in which OCSC—who were riding a 5-game Win Streak heading in—needed a Win to make the MLS Playoffs. Of note, it has been a colder Spring so far in the Mideast and Northeast of the US and the Weather Forecast for Friday in Chester (suburban Philadelphia) calls for just a High of 53° and Cloudy conditions with fairly high Winds (10-20 mph) with Temperatures dipping all the way down to a Low of 33° at night (7 p.m. local start).

So, the handicap here says it’s way too Cold for Soccer and that with 0 goals from Open Play in 2 meetings, backing the Under (2½ -105, Coral) is the most logical look. On Tuesday, the Orlando Sentinel reported that MLS Rookie of the Year Cyle Larin (Hamstring) missed Training on Tuesday and that his availability for this game was uncertain. “We’re not sure about Friday,” OCSC Head Coach Adrian Heath said, adding that Larin was “Feeling a lot better” and that the Injury was “probably not as bad as first feared.

We’re not sure about Friday but we’re pretty confident about the game after.” So Kaká is back but Larin will be out and this looks like a tentative game played in frigid conditions where the Home site may provide that slightest of edges as it did last year in that last game of the year (Oct. 25)—the only other time these two clubs have met before in the Philadelphia metropolitan area.
Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia 1 Orlando SC 0

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Free Soccer Pick: Under 2½ -105
Best Line Offered: at Coral

 

Saturday, April 9, 2016

Montréal Impact vs. Columbus Crew
3-Way Odds: Montréal -120, Columbus +300, Draw +240 (Bet365)
Total: 2½ Over -111, Under -111 (Bet365)

The Weather Forecast for Montréal on Saturday calls for Snow and a Low of 30° so any old Ivorians (like Didier Drogba) who will be in attendance will be in Parkas and warm clothing and definitely not in an Impact kit. So any visions of watching Drogba in lovely Spring weather when purchasing those ticket have been replaced with a potential reality of pulling for Ignacio Piatti (3 goals) in scattered Snow Showers, Cold temperatures and moderate Winds (10-15 mph).

Funsies. Even though they played in the MLS Cup, Columbus seems to be in a Funk and the Impact have beaten the Crew in the L2 meetings here in Quebec (MTL 2-1 CLB, MTL 3-0 CLB) and outscored Kei Kamara (1 goal) and the Crew, 5-1. And Montréal has also W3 of the L4 meetings straight up, but this is a tough handicapping spot with Columbus needing a Win like man in the Hospital needs Blood.

So it seems the Weather and the potential Snow could be the big star late Saturday afternoon at Saputo Stadium, making the Under probably the safest approach, especially with the Impact frustrated on Offense—Montréal lost 1-0 at Seattle in MLS Week 5 play—and waiting for Drogba to return for good—he came in the 2nd Half vs. FC Dallas—the Mercury to rise some and that dreaded Twilight. It’s still Hockey weather north of the border, as well as a good part south of it as well. Sometimes it snows in April.

Final Score Prediction: Impact 1 Crew 1

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Free Soccer Pick: Under 2½ -105

 

New England Revolution vs. Toronto FC
3-Way Odds:
Revolution +100, Toronto +275, Draw +210 (Bet365)
Total: 2½ Over -115, Under -108 (BetVictor)

Toronto FC (1-1-2, W-D-L) is starting the season off on a nasty 8-game Road Trip and is coming off a 1-0 Loss to the Colorado Rapids at The Dick in MLS Week 5 play. The L5 Meetings? TOR 1-3 NE, NE 3-1 TOR, NE 1-1 TOR, NE 1-0 TOR, TOR 0-3 NE.

As you can see, the Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ Prop (-142, Bet365) has W3 straight in this series and with the (Yes) Odds so high, you can see that Oddsmakers are expecting a higher-scoring game here, or that at least TFC has the best chance of the first four Road clubs this week to notch a Goal or Goals with Sebastian Giovinco (2 goals) obviously having a massive effect on the price in this particular market.

Look for Charlie Davies (1 goal) and the hosts to find a way to Win on their Home turf against a seemingly perpetually underrated TFC side.

Final Score Prediction: Revolution 1 Toronto 0

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Free Soccer Pick: Revolution +115, Under 2½ -103

 

DC United vs. Vancouver Whitecaps
3-Way Odds: DC United +190, Vancouver + 145, Draw +229 (Sky Bet)
Total: 2½ Over +110, Under -150 (Stan James)

The Vancouver Whitecaps head to Our Nation’s Capital, Washington, DC, not to watch Congressmen spending 72.3% of their working Hours on the bleeding Telephone raising money just try to to get re-elected, but to participate in a game of good old World Football at RFK Stadium between against Lamar Neagle (1 goal) and hometown DC United (0-3-2 [W-D-L], 3 GF-9 GA).

And as you can tell by the double-check-the-who’s-the-host Odds and the Record, it has not been a very good start to the 2016 MLS Regular Season for the hosts. But can Pedro Morales (4 goals) and Vancouver find a way to score here in the Cold (Forecast: Low 30°, Winds NNW to 22 mph, Wind-driven Rain showers)? Well, if we balance Draw No Bet Whitecaps side bet (-125, Marathon) with a Totals bet on the (best-priced) Under (2½ -125, Coral), we might not even care. L5 Meetings: VAN 1-2 DC, VAN 0-0 DC, DC 0-1 VAN, VAN 0-0 DC, VAN 2-1.

Final Score Prediction: DC United 0 Vancouver 1

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Free Soccer Pick: Under 2½ -125, Vancouver Draw No Bet -125

 

New York Red Bulls vs. Sporting Kansas City
3-Way Odds:
RBNY -162, Sporting Kansas City +310, Draw +265 (Bet365)
Total: 2½ Over -111, Under -111 (Bet365)

Felipe (2 goals) and the Red Bulls are unbeaten the L6 meetings (SKC 1-1 NY, NY 2-1 SKC, SKC 0-2 NY, NY 2-1 SKC, SKC 1-1 NY, SKC 2-3 NY) in this Eastern Conference series (4-2-0) and RBNY is 11-8-5 lifetime at Home (31 GF-23 GA) against Sporting Kansas City and Dominic Dwyer (2 goals). RBNY (1-0-3, 4 GF-9 GA) and Mike Grella (1 goal) really need the Win here while unbeaten SKC (3-2-0, 5 GF- 3 GA) will want to protect its nice start, but are in a tough place at the wrong time it seems.

Still, they should stifle the Pace enough to warrant making a moderate Under play, especially with really Cold Weather in the Forecast on Saturday evening in The Big Apple metro area (Harrison, NJ: 29°, Rain-Snow tapering off, Winds NNW 10-20 mph, 80% chance of Precipitation). That’s Cold. Especially for Spring.

Final Score Prediction: Red Bulls 1 Sporting Kansas City 0

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Free Soccer Pick:Under 2½ -111, Red Bulls Draw No Bet -179
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

 

FC Dallas vs. San José Earthquakes
3-Way Odds:
FC Dallas -162, Earthquakes +375, Draw +275 (Bet365)
Total: 2½ Over -111, Under -111 (Bet365)

One day in the not-too-distant Future, all games in the MLS will played at a venue named Toyota Park, except for Columbus which will be re-named Jack Hanna Field at Columbus Zoo Park where a 27-year-old Giraffe named Cindy will one-up the Portland Timbers chainsaw-wielding Railsplitter by karate chopping small Oak Trees in half with her muscular neck.

Chris Wondolowski (3 goals) and the Earthquakes are winless (0-1-3, W-D-L) in their L4 vs. FCD but any perceived value here lies with the visitors from San José and in possibly the Draw No bet market as FCD played very blaah vs the Crew here at Home last weekend and needed a late equalizer just to muster a 1-1 Draw. L5 Meetings: DAL 2-1 SJ, SJ 0-0 DAL, DAL 1-0 SJ, SJ 0-5 DAL, DAL 1-2 SJ. At least one Week 6 game that won’t be freezing.

Final Score Prediction: FC Dallas 1 Earthquakes 1

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Real Salt Lake vs. Colorado Rapids
3-Way Odds:
Real Salt Lake +105, Rapids +229, Draw +229 (Bet365)
Total: 2½ Over -105, Under -120 (Coral)

Five-foot-3-inch, 134-pound Joao Plata (3 goals) and unbeaten Real Salt Lake (2-2-0, 8 GF-6 GA) welcome Marco Pappa (1 goal) their MLS West neighbors Colorado (2-1-1, 3 GF-2 GA) to the Beehive State, a club (Colorado) which has seen just a grand total of 5 goals in 4 games, making Rapids Unders worth consideration until further notice.

However, the Over has W2 straight (COL 1-2 RSL, COL 3-1 RSL), averaging 3.5 gpg so this will be a collision of past Numbers and present potential Realities. Hmmm. The last meeting here (Sep. 19, 2014) in suburban Salt Lake City (Sandy), saw Real SLC and the Rapids play to a 0-0 Draw, while the meeting before saw real SLC roll to a 5-1 victory.

The Weather Channel’s Forecast (on Tuesday) for Sandy on Saturday night: Mostly Cloudy Skies with 5-10 mph Winds and a High of 48° with 66% Humidity. So, much better Weather than almost everyone else playing in the upper half of the Lower 48. In Utah. Of course. Look for the hosts to find a way to show the Home fans what’s up and get that crucial first (and maybe only) goal here and snag the 3 points with the victory at rabid Rio Tinto, where 48° could be expected for this date on the Calendar.

This is a battle of two teams who can play some good Defense, and with the rapids having scored only 3 goals in 4 matches, the only way Colorado will seemingly be able to hang with opponents is to play killer D.

Final Score Prediction: Real SLC 1 Rapids 0

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Free Soccer Pick: Real Salt Lake +120, Under 2½

 

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Houston Dynamo vs Seattle Sounders
3-Way Odds:
Dynamo +130, Sounders +212, Draw +229 (Sky Bet)
Total: 2½ Over -117, Under -105 (Bet365)

This always plays like a good series for the Home side (L5 Meetings: HOU 1-1 SEA, SEA 1-0 HOU, SEA 2-0 HOU, HOU 3-1 SEA, SEA 2-0 HOU), with the contrasting feels, Time Zones and cultures of Texas and the American Southwest versus the Pacific Northwest. But winning on the other guy’s pitch has always been a bitch in Soccer, and this is always baked into the MLS odds cake, although the 3-way line makes choosing exactly what you want/expect that much easier.

Here in the Lone Star State and the 4th-largest city in the US where they have drive-through Liquor Barns (not stores), Will Bruin (3 goals) and the so-far prolific Dynamo (1-1-2, 11 GF-8 GA) welcome Clint Dempsey (1 goal) and the fairly desperate Sounders (1-0-3, 3 GF-5 GA) who need to get some Momentum and Confidence after their worst start ever (0-0-3). Seattle did win (1-0) in MLS Week 5 play, blanking the Drogba-less Impact in the Emerald City, but this team may struggle this season, especially after seeing popular Striker Obafemi Martins head to China to ply his football wares in the Chinese Super League with Shanghai Shenhua. This is another one of those MLS Regular Season matches which fits the Draw mold.

Final Score Prediction: Dynamo 1 Sounders 1

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Free Soccer Pick: Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -137

 

NYCFC vs. Chicago Fire
3-Way Odds:
NYCFC -120, Fire +300, Draw +240 (Bet365)
Total: 2½ Over -116, Under +103 (Marathon)

These two clubs have only played 3 times with Frank Lampard, Andrea Pirlo, David Villa (2 goals) and 2015 expansion side New York City FC (Football Club) going 1-1-1 against Chicago (1-2-1, 5 GF-5 GA) and Kennedy Igboananike (2 goals) and being dead-even on Goals (6 GF-6 GA).

In the lone meeting here of the first home of NYCFC (1-2-1, 7 GF-7 GA) In The House That Ruth Built last season, these two teams played to a 2-2 Draw (May 15, 2015) and an Over but although Yankee Stadium has yielded 7 goals in 3 matches this season, 4 of them came in a 2-2 NYCFC-TFC Draw (March 13), so the Over is 1-2 to start the MLS Regular Season after being so strong in these tight confines built for MLB way back when the Automobile was a new thing.

Oddsmakers has Totals for NYCFC Home games raised to 3’s for matches here because of the high amount of scoring last season and with it at 2½ again, this seems like a big leap of Faith from linemakers that scoring will be down in The Bronx.

Although it will be Cold on Sunday night, NYCFC (0-2-1 at Home) has playmaker Villa and should score once or twice while the same exact thing could be said about Chicago and David Accam (2 goals), with all knowing this is a nationally televised affair on ESPN and many will be watching.

Final Score Prediction: NYCFC 2 Fire 1

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Free Soccer Pick: Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -133, Over 2½ +103

 

LA Galaxy vs. Portland Timbers
3-Way Odds:
Galaxy -150, Timbers +360, Draw +260 (Bet365)
Total: 2½ Over -129, Under +105 (BetVictor)

Fanendo Adi (4 goals) and the defending MLS champion Portland Timbers (1-1-2, 6 GF-9 GA) head to Lalaland to face Robbie Keane (2 goals) and the host LA Galaxy on Sunday night in the MLS Week 6 finale. The L5 meetings in this series is what you want and what you shall get: LA 2-5 POR, LA 5-0 POR, POR 2-2 LA, LA 3-1 POR, LA 2-2 POR). So, 5 straight Overs, a grand total of 24 goals in those 5 matches (4.8 gpg) and the Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) Prop at 4-1. Sounds like a play we could possibly hang our Hats on if we only had Heads.

Look for Nat Borchers and the defending MLS champions from the Rose City to put up a fight, but Head Coach Bruce Arians and the host LA Galaxy (2-1-1, 7 GF-3 GA) need this one to bounce back after a listless 0-0 Draw with the Whitecaps up in Vancouver in Week 5 play.

Final Score Prediction: LA Galaxy 2 Portland 1

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Free Soccer Pick: LA Galaxy -128, Galaxy-Timbers Over 2½ -129
Best Line Offered: at BetVictor

 

MLS Soccer Week 6 Select Best Bets
Revolution-TFC Under 2½ -103
Whitecaps Draw No Bet -125
Real Salt Lake +120
Real SLC-Rapids Under 2½
NYCFC-Fire Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -133
Galaxy-Timbers Over 2½ -129