MLS Week 19 Rundown For Soccer Picks

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, July 13, 2016 8:47 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 13, 2016 8:47 PM UTC

Let’s handicap that inter-conference match and the 9 others this weekend in MLS Week 19 and see if we can make some logical Trend- and Form-based soccer picks.

LA Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo
Robbie Keane (6 goals) and the LA Galaxy (7-8-3, 31 GF-18 GA) welcome Will Bruin (4 goals) and the 9th-place Houston Dynamo (4-6-8, 23 GF-25 GA) to Southern California for this Western Conference from the StubHub Center in Carson on Friday night (UniMás, MLS LIVE). The L5 meetings in this series (HOU 1-4 LA, HOU 3-0 LA, LA 1-0 HOU, LA 1-1 HOU, HOU 1-0 LA) reveals these two as even as can be, both 2-2-1 and having scored 6 goals. 

But the soccer pick here has to be with Head Coach Bruce Arena and the host LA Galaxy (5-4-0, 20 GF-8 GA at Home), who are unbeaten in suburban Lipstick City (Carson) and have plenty of attacking firepower in players like Keane, Gyasi Zardes (4 goals), Giovanni dos Santos (7 goals) and Mike Magee (5 goals). And backing the Galaxy (DLDDWW), especially with the hapless Dynamo (DDDLWD) still winless on the Road (0-3-7, 9 GF-17 GA) heading in.

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Final Score Prediction: LA Galaxy 2 Dynamo 1
Free MLS Pick: LA Galaxy -187 at StanJames
Free MLS Props Bet Pick: Team To Score First, Galaxy -187 at PaddyPower


Columbus Crew vs. DC United
Ola Kamara (8 goals) and the 9th-place Columbus Crew (3-7-7, 22 GF-28 GA) play host to 7th-place DC United (5-6-7, 17 GF-20 GA) on Saturday (MLS Live, News Channel 8, TWCSC-Ohio, CW-Columbus) in a big Eastern Conference fixture for both teams. The L5 meetings in this series reveals (CLB 5-0 DCU, DCU 1-2 CLB, DC 2-0 CLB, DCU 0-0 CLB, CLB 1-1 DCU) the Crew with a 2-2-1 edge over DCU), but those were better Columbus sides with Kei Kamara leading the way although Costa Rican Álvaro Saborío (4 goals), Fabian Espindola (3 goals) and DC United (1-5-3, 5 GF-11 GA on Road) haven’t proven they can Win or score consistently on the Road this season, averaging a little more than half a Goal a game (0.56 gpg) with 5 goals in 9 Road matches and scoring just twice in its L4. No man ask for.

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Final Score Prediction: Crew 1 DC United 1
Free MLS Pick: None


FC Dallas vs. Chicago Fire
Along with the Colorado Rapids, FC Dallas (11-4-5, 31 GF-24 GA) has been the most impressive team in the MLS to date this Regular Season as this franchise—formerly known as the Dallas Burn—still seeking its first MLS Cup championship (FC Dallas 10/1 to win MLS Cup, Sky Bet) start to gain that valuable Confidence heading into the All-Star Break. And what better club to have pay a visit to Frisco, a team with its own Toyota Park, the 10th-place Chicago Fire (3-5-8, 15 GF-21 GA) in the weaker Eastern Conference and a side with the least Wins (3) in the MLS at this writing. 

A look at the L5 meetings in this inter-conference series (CHI 2-0 DAL, CHI 1-0 DAL, DAL 2-3 CHI, CHI 2-1 DAL, CHI 1-2 DAL) reveals a strange reality with Chicago W4 straight and outscoring FCD 8-2 in the process with with 2 Clean Sheets and four of the five games being played in Chicagoland. This is a better FC Dallas (DDLWWW) team and Chicago (0-2-6, 6 GF-13 GA, WDLLWL) is still winless on the Road. Embrace Logic. Take the Toros.

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Final Score Prediction: FC Dallas 3 Fire 1
Free MLS Pick: FC Dallas -250 at PaddyPower
Free MLS Props Pick: FC Dallas Match Result and Both Teams To Score +187 at PaddyPower


Colorado Rapids vs SKC
Dominic Dwyer (8 goals) and Sporting Kansas City (8-4-8, 24 GF-22 GA) head to the Rocky Mountains not to ski nor to pan for Gold, but to play a game of World Football and American Soccer against the host Colorado Rapids (9-7-2, 21 GF-13 GA), a club which has allowed the least goals in the MLS (13) and which has the least Losses (3), so there may be some correlation between the two things. I’ll get back to you. Here in the Altitude, new-Old GK Tim Howard and the Rapids (7-2-0, 12 GF-4 GA) face, Graham Zusi, the red-hot Benny Feilhaber (5 goals), Brad Davis (2 goals), Dwyer and an SKC squad unbeaten in its L5 (DWDWW) matches. 

So this should be one of the better games of the week although there is that remote possibility nothing will happen, and if there is a candidate for a 0-0 Final Scoreline (Correct Score: 0-0, 13/1, Paddy Power) this 10-game slate, this one on Saturday night (MLS LIVE, Altitude, KMCI-38) is it, especially with the Rapids having allowed only 4 Road goals in 9 matches (0.44 rgpg). The Rapids (W4 in series) beat Matt Besler and SKC here on May 11, 1-0 in the last meeting between these two Western Conference sides. Seems Underish. The exodus is here.

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Final Score Prediction: Rapids 1 Sporting Kansas City 1
Free MLS Pick: Under 2½ -120 at PaddyPower


Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Orlando City SC
The Vancouver Whitecaps (7-4-8, 29 GF-33 GA) play host to Orlando City SC (4-9-4, 28 GF-29 GA) in an inter-conference battle which could be hard for the kickers from the Sunshine State who will have to travel 2,615 miles to play this game and who will be losing 3 Body Clock Hours going from ET to PT. (Plus, the Canadian conversion rate, bruh.) With Orlando SC (20/1 to win MLS Cup, Bet365), these two clubs have only met once with Vancouver shutting out Kaká & Co., 1-0 at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando last March, so, this will be the team’s first official MLS game in Vancouver. 

And with two Assistants acting as Interim Head Coaches with Adrian Heath now let go, this seems like a pretty good betting spot for Pedro Morales (6 goals), Kekuta Manneh (5 goals) and the Whitecaps (4-4-2, 15 GF-11 GA at Home), especially with the game starting at 10 p.m. EDT (for the OCSC EDT Body Clocks) and ending around Midnight Eastern time. So, Kaká (3 goals) and OCSC are travelling to a foreign country and will be playing (on just 2 Days Rest, but so will Vancouver) in a match with a late ending for them and in a stadium in which they have never played before? All signs and point to taking the host Whitecaps (20/1 to win MLS Cup, Coral). Is the water warm enough? Yes Lisa. shall we begin? Yes Lisa.

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Final Score Prediction: Whitecaps 2 Orlando City 1
Free MLS Pick: Whitecaps -110 (Betfred)


Real Salt Lake vs. NE Revolution
Yura Movsisyan (7 goals), Juan Manuel Martínez (6 goals), Joao Plata (5 goals) and Real Salt Lake (8-5-5, 29 GF-28 GA) welcome Lee Nguyen (5 goals), Kei Kamara (3 goals) and the New England Revolution (5-7-7, 26 GF-33 GA) to Rio Tinto Stadium and suburban Salt Lake City on Saturday night (MLS Live, KMYU, CSN-New England) for this big inter-conference match for both teams, with the Revolution in 6th place and fighting for that last playoff berth in the Eastern Conference, although it’s too early to fret about that in the MLS. The Revolution (1-3-5, 12 GF-22 GA) do miss Prince but they did get the prolific Kamara from the Columbus Crew but it will be problematic for New England (40/1 to win MLS Cup at 888Sport) playing at Altitude (4,450 feet) in Sandy and losing 2 Body Clock Hours going from EDT to MDT, meaning this game should end around Midnight (for their New England Circadian Rhythms.) RSL is 5-2-2 (21 GF-9 GA) lifetime against the Revolution here in the Beehive State and is unbeaten at Home the L6 games against the Revolution (5-1-0), outscoring them 20-6 in the process. Nights are warm and the days are young.

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Final Score Prediction: Real Salt Lake 3 Revolution 1
Free MLS Pick: Real Salt Lake -110 at PaddyPower


San Jose Earthquakes vs. Toronto FC
Chris Wondolowski (7 goals) and San Jose (5-7-6, 19 GF-21 GA) play host to Toronto FC (6-5-6, 19 GF-19 GA) at Avaya Stadium on Saturday night (MLS Live, SN360, CSN-California) in yet another inter-conference affair in which the visitors will be traveling a very great Distance (2,668 miles) and in which Circadian Rhythms (Biological Body Clocks) may be affected with the game ending after Midnight, Toronto time in this particular case. And TFC (DLWLDW) will also be playing in another country, and another country within a country in California which now boasts the world’s 8th largest economy. Oranges and Porn. The L5 meetings in this series (TOR 3-1 SJ, TOR 1-0 SJ, SJ 2-1 TOR, TOR 0-3 SJ, TOR 1-1 SJ) reveals the Home team is 3-1-1 with both sides a dead-even 2-2-1 over those L5. Here at at Avaya Stadium, expect the Earthquakes (DDLDDL) to benefit from any bad calls, but deep in the bowels of The Lab here in Sin City, my trusted and hairy Research Assistant (Maine Coon Cat) has kindly pointed out that 6 of the L7 Quakes MLS games have gone Under (7-8 counting US Open Cup play), with an average of just 1.57 total gpg. Good job boy.

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Final Score Prediction: Earthquakes 1 Toronto FC 0
Free MLS Pick: Under 2½ -150 at PaddyPower
Free MLS Props Pick: Under 1½ +220 at PaddyPower


Sunday, July 17, 2016

Portland Timbers vs. Seattle Sounders
This installment of the Cascadia Cup on Sunday afternoon (FOX, MLS LIVE (US), Sky Sports 5/HD (UK)) seems to have lost some of its luster with the Seattle Sounders (5-2-10, 14 GF-21 GA) in last place in the Western Conference and 8 points away from a Playoff berth and the defending MLS champion and host Portland Timbers (6-7-6, 28 GF-29 PA) dead-even in wins (6) and Losses (6) and actually at a -1 Goal Differential, currently (Tuesday) leaving them in 7th place and out of the Postseason also, just behind their other Cascadia Cup Pacific Northwest rivals, the Vancouver Whitecaps. 

In the L5 meetings in this series (SEA 2-1 POR, POR 4-1 SEA, SEA 1-0 POR, POR 2-4 SEA, SEA 2-0 POR), you can see that Jordan Morris (6 goals), Clint “Deuce” Dempsey (2 goals) and the Sounders (1-2-5, 7 GF-13 GA on Road) are 4-1-0 against Fanendo Adi (9 goals) and the Timbers with the Home club also 4-10 in those 5 meetings and the Over W3 of 4 and the L2 here in Portland (5 and 6 goals). So will Desperation and a national (and international) TV audience mean goals, goals, goals in the Rose City, Monsieur? Nat Borchers and Portland (-111 at StanJames to -162 at PaddyPower favorites) should find a way to win, but there are better games this weekend so let’s watch and learn on this one.

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Final Score Prediction: Timbers 1 Sounders 1
Free MLS Pick: None


Montreal Impact vs. NYCFC
About face. Forward march. That’s what Designated Players Andrea Pirlo, Frank Lampard and David Villa have done with NYCFC (8-6-6, 31 GF-34 GA) this Regular Season. But only in the freaky MLS—and only in the Eastern Conference—could a second-year franchise with a -3 GD be sitting proudly in 1st place (heading into Wednesday’s sextet of matches). But so it is. Here, on Sunday (ESPN, MLS Live, RDS, TSN2 (US), Sky Sports 5/HD (UK)) Ignacio Piatti (10 goals), Didier Drogba (5 goals), Dominic Oduro (4 goals) and the Montreal Impact (6-7-4, 28 GF-25 GA) play host to that NYCFC lot, who actually seem to play better on the Road (5-1-3, 15 GF-13 GA) than they do at Home at Yankee Stadium. Bambino no like EuroFootball on his Diamond. 

With NYCFC so new, these two have only met 4 times (NYCFC 1-1 MTL, NYCFC 2-3 MTL, MTL 1-2 NYCFC, NYCFC 2-1 MTL), with NYCFC going 2-1-1 against the Impact and winning the first time they ever played here in Saputo Stadium (July 4, 2015) in the province of Quebec. With the Reds (4-3-1, 16 GF-11 GA at Home) having so many players who can score including Belizean Rookie Michael Salazar (2 goals) and NYCFC (LWWWWL) having a loaded Roster as well with the electric playmaker Villa (12 goals), Thomas McNamara (4 goals) and their own stud Rookie in Jack Harrison (2 goals), each team should find the back of the net here and it seems NYCFC always demands a faster pace of its opponents. 

And with these two playing to a 1-1 Draw here two months ago on May 16th (TFC 56% Time of Possession, 7 Shots on Target, NYCFC 3), it just seems that maybe another 1-1 scoreline may be in the MLS cards, with neither side wanting the Loss, New York City Football Club decent on the Road and the Montreal Impact just not that menacing at Home. Vegetable casserole for all.

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Final Score Prediction: Impact 1 NYCFC 1
Free MLS Props Picks: Both Teams To Score (Yes) -133 (Bet365), Correct Score 1-1, +600 at PaddyPower


Philadelphia Union vs. NY Red Bulls
Week 19 in the MLS ends with an Eastern Conference showdown between the host and 2nd-place Philadelphia Union (8-5-6, 32 GF-26 GA) and the 4th-place New York Red Bulls (7-3-9, 28 GF-25 GA) in suburban Philadelphia (Chester) on Sunday night (FS1, MLS Live (US), Sky Sports 5/HD (UK)) on Sunday night. With 25 total Goals scored on the Road in RBNY games (1-2-7, 11 GF-16 GA) averaging a robust 2.78 gpg and the Trends, everything points to taking the Over here. Roland Alberg (6 goals) Chris Pontius (6 goals), CJ Sapong (5 goals) and the Union (7-2-1, 23 GF-12 GA) have been dominating at Home and have played in 10 games resulting in 25 goals at both Philly Sites, right on (2.50 gpg) the usual 2½ oddsmakers usually hang on the board for MLS Odds Totals. 

The L5 meetings in this series (RBNY 4-1 PHI, PHI 1-3 RBNY, RBNY 0-2 PHI, PHI 2-2 RBNY, PHI 3-1 RBNY) has seen 4 Overs and a stupid average of 3.80 gpg having been scored. That’s high. Bradley Wright-Phillips (9 goals), Mike Grella (6 goals) and the Red Bulls (WWLDLD) were on a major roll in June and then sort of hit the skids, while Philadelphia (WLWLLW)—which played English Premier League side Crystal Palace in a Friendly here at Talen Energy Center on Wednesday—is solid here at Home in the steamy Pennsylvania Summer heat but an absolute hot mess on the Road. A deeper handicapping dive shows the Over is 8-2 the L10 in this series, with 31 goals (3.1 gpg) having been scored in those matches and the Over having W6 straight here in The City of Brotherly Love and Bouncing Soccer Balls (4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 5 total goals), averaging an even higher 4.50 gpg. So you know what to do. The street heats the urgency of now.

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Final Score Prediction: Union 2 Red Bulls 2
Free MLS Pick: Over 2½ +120 at PaddyPower
Free MLS Props Pick: Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) -150 at Bet365


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