MLS Soccer Picks: FC Dallas Tough to Beat Against DC United

Kevin Stott

Monday, July 13, 2015 1:55 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 13, 2015 1:55 PM UTC

This inter-conference game sees host FC Dallas welcoming DC United to Toyota Park at Frisco, Texas. Are we going with the Under or the Home team, or is there possibly a better approach and pick here in this contest?

Odds Overview 
DC United at FC Dallas (MLS Live, CSN-Washington, TXA-21 (USA): 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT):

Eastern Conference leaders DC United (10-5-6, 23 GF-18 GA) head to the Lone Star State on Saturday night to face host and now the 3rd-place team in the Western Conference, FC Dallas (9-5-5, 26 GF-23 GA, 24 points) in this week 22 fixture at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas—a suburb 25 minutes out from the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. Soccer odds makers here have made host FC Dallas -133 favorites here over visiting DC United (+333) with the Draw priced at +250 (William Hill). The Total Goals here has been set at 2½, with Over priced at -105 and the Under set at -117 (bet365). Some Props wagers for this weekend game from the Lone Star State: Both Teams To Score: ‘Yes’ -117, ‘No’ -111 (Ladbrokes); Draw No Bet: FC Dallas -300, DC United +240 (BetVictor); and, To Win To Nil: FC Dallas +187, DC United +550 (bet365).


DC United
Reality is catching up with DC United (3-2-5 Road, 5 GF-8 GA), losers of 3 of its L6 games, but with last weekend off and a 9-point lead in the Eastern Conference, DCU still has some breathing room but this test at Dallas will be revealing. So far on the Road this season, DCU has played extremely low-scoring games, averaging just 1.3 gpg. For DC United and Head Coach Ben Olsen, Defense has become their their calling card (Eastern Conference-low 18 Goals Allowed) and outstanding Goalkeeper Bill Hamid is a huge part of the reason the Black-and-Red are where they are right now. DCU is led on the attack by Chris Rolfe (6 goals), Jairo Arrieta (5 goals), Chris Pontius (2 goals), Perry Kitchen (2 goals), Conor Doyle (2 goal), Sean Franklin (1 goal), Bobby Boswell (1 goal), Luis Silva (1 goal), Fabián Espíndola (1 goal), Steve Birnbaum (1 goal) and Kofi Opare (1 goal) and the best (highest) odds out there currently for DC United to win MLS Cup are +600 at Betfair Sportsbook. The second half of the season will be a true test for this DCU squad.

Must Read: Orlando City FC vs. NY Red Bulls ... New England Rev vs. NYCFC

FC Dallas
FC Dallas (6-2-1 Home, 14 GF-8 GA) has now W3 straight MLS games overall, with GK Dan Kennedy registering a Clean Sheet in all three contests (DAL 2-0 HOU,  DAL 3-0 NE, ORL 0-2), after knocking off expansion side Orlando FC, 2-0 on Saturday night at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando. The victory helped move FC Dallas up to a tie for the lead on points (32 points) in the Western Conference, but in 3rd place on Goal Differential (Seattle +6, FC Dallas +3). On Offense, FC Dallas is led by Fabian Castillo (7 goals), Blas Pérez (5 goals), Mauro Diaz (4 goals), Testro Akindele (3 goals) and Ryan Hollinshead (2 goals), and unlike some teams, this team has a nice balance of scoring on its roster as we near the All-Star Break. With FC Dallas (16/1 to win MLS Cup, BetVictor) now playing some of its best soccer of the season and the game in Dallas, this may be the perfect opportunity to bet on the hosts against a team which has been very weak scoring goals on the Road so far this season.


Current Form, Series Trends, Conclusions
In lifetime MLS play in this series, DC United is 15-12-14 (74 GF-68 GA) in this series against FC Dallas and DCU is a more than respectable 9-5-6 (44 GF-34 GA) here in Dallas on the Road against this club. The last time they played was in Week 2 where DC United pounded FC Dallas 4-1 at Home. With FC Dallas (Current Form—LDLDWWW) playing so well and having such a nice scoreless streak going, expect DCU (Current Form—LLWWDL) to have trouble scoring here. The last time DC United won here in Dallas was back in 2007 (DCU 4-0). Although the standings make it look like DC United is dominating the conference and doing great overall in the league, it’s important to digest this 5 Road Goals statistic as well as remembering that Toronto FC has only played 18 games (to 21 for DCU) and will have a healthy chunk of its games down the stretch being played at Home. With GK Hamid, DC United is really good this season. But like most teams in this sport, DCU plays way much better at Home and can be pretty average on the Road (3-2-5, 5 GF-8 GA). The odds sort of reflect this reality, but not totality and there seems to be value here with FC Dallas at the small plus for our soccer picks. With a hot Kennedy in goal for FC Dallas and Hamid in net for DC United, expect few goals in what would be deemed a pitcher’s duel in MLB.

Predicted Final Score:  FC Dallas 1 DC United 0
MLS Pick: Under 2½ -117 (bet365), FC Dallas -117 (BetVictor)

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