MLS Cup Playoffs Conference Final Leg 2 - Toronto FC vs Montreal Impact

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, November 29, 2016 8:27 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2016 8:27 PM UTC

The 401 Derby will have massive consequences on Wednesday night with one Canadian club coming out of the second leg of the MLS Eastern Conference Finals. Expert capper Kevin Stott provides his analysis and his MLS pick.

Toronto FC vs. Montréal Impact, BMO Field, Toronto, 7 p.m. EST/4 p.m. PST

Toronto FC (14-11-9, 51 GF-49 GA in Regular Season) rallied for two 2nd Half goals in Leg 2 of this Eastern Conference Finals series last Tuesday at a packed Olympic Stadium in Montréal against the victorious Impact (11-12-11, 49 GF-53 GA in Regular Season), so the with the upstart Seattle Sounders (+100 to win MLS Cup, at Intertops)—winners of the Western Conference over the Colorado Rapids—lying in wait, the Pace here should be quick from the start in Ontario on Wednesday night (FS1 (US), TSN1, RDS, (CAN), Sky Sports 3/HD (UK)).



This 401 Derby will mark the last game in an Impact (+350 to win MLS Cup, Intertops) uniform for Chelsea legend Didier Drogba (10 goals), so that will add to the theater, but it will be Ignacio Piatti (20 goals) the visitors look to on the attack against Sebastian Giovinco (21 goals), Jozy Altidore (14 goals) and a solid Toronto (+160 to win MLS Cup, Intertops) side favored by oddsmakers to win this match (TFC -182, MTL +425, DRAW +310, Intertops).



Dominic Oduro (7 goals) and the Impact have great in this series of late (MTL 3-2 TOR, MTL 2-2 TOR, TOR 0-1 MTL, MTL 0-2 TOR, MTL 3-0 TOR, MTL 2-1 TOR), going 4-1-1 the L6 and outscoring GK Clint Irwin and TFC, 11-7 along the way. But this match is unique in its context and situation, and the odds, both for this Leg 2 and the odds in the MLS Cup Futures Book marketplace show it. Who wins a Leg 1 in a Conference Final and is the longshot to win the MLS Cup? The Montréal Impact, that’s who.

One club will advance to MLS Cup 2016 (Dec. 10) for the first time and proudly represent Canada and logic dictates there are (at least) 2 goals in the scoreboard by Halftime (1st Half Under 1½ -200, 1st Half Over 1½ +155) in Toronto where the Weather outside looks frightful (Cloudy and Damp with Rain early, Low 42° F, Winds WSW 10-20 mph).



The Impact eliminated the Reds last season in the Knockout Round (3-0) and even with the crappy conditions in the forecast, the wisest approach here is to take the Total Over as Giovinco (-175 Anytime Goalscorer, at Bet365), Altidore (+120 Anytime Goalscorer, Bet365) and the host Reds could very well top the Total themselves in this desperation-fueled spot.

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Final Score Prediction: Toronto FC 3 Impact 1MLS Pick: Over 2½ -154Best Line Offered: at Intertops

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