MLS Betting: Nine Matches Rundown For Valuable Picks Week 16

Kevin Stott

Thursday, June 23, 2016 8:14 PM GMT

Let’s take our weekly walk through the nine matches on the MLS slate this weekend, see if there is any money that can be made and offer up some logical picks for our SBR soccer fans.

Seattle Sounders vs. NYCFC
The Seattle Sounders (5-1-8, 13 GF-17 GA) welcome European legends David Villa (11 goals), Andrea Pirlo and Frank Lampard and NYCFC (5-6-5, 25 GF-31 GA) to CenturyLink Field in the Emerald City on Saturday for this inter-conference and nationally televised date and big game for both sides with Seattle scuffling and still likely without star Clint Dempsey, still with or ending play with the USMNT team at the Copa América Centenario where the Stars and Stripes faced Lionel Messi and Argentina in the Semifinals in Houston on Tuesday night.

Even though it hasn’t dominated MLS odds at Home, Yankee Stadium, second-year club NYCFC has done decent enough on the Road (2-5-3, 14 GF-21 GA), generating more than half (11) of its 21 points from Draws (5) and Wins (2) away from The Big Apple. With the visitors having to travel 2,403 miles and losing 3 Body Clock Hours (EDT to PDT), there should be huge Site advantage here but a great deal of that perceived edge is not worth its weight here with NYCF holding its own on the Road, Jordan Morris (4 goals) and the Sounders (4-0-3, 7 GF-5 GA at Home) being so down this season and Dempsey (2 goals) likely not involved. These two clubs gave only met one time with Seattle rolling to a 3-1 victory in The House That Ruth Built last season.

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Final Score Prediction: Sounders 1 NYCFC 1
Free MLS Pick: Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) -136
Best Line Offered: at StanJames

 

DC United vs. New England Revolution
The New England Revolution (4-7-4, 21 GF-26 GA) head down the Atlantic Coast to DC to face the DC United (4-5-6, 14 GF-16 GA) at RFK Stadium on Saturday night (MLS Live, CSN-NE, NewsChannel 8) in an Eastern Conference affair with DCU able to leapfrog the Revolution in the standings and into 6th place and a playoff spot with a Win. The L5 meetings (DC 3-0 NE, NE 0-0 DC, DC 2-1 NE, DC 2-1 NE, NE 1-1 DC) between these two teams reveals the Home team is an unbeaten 3-2-0 with the Revolution failing to score in both meetings last season.

The TWC forecast for DC for Saturday evening calls Clear Skies, a Low of 67° with SSE Winds of 5-10 mph, so nice weather in the Washington, DC in both MLS sides’ first game of the Summer. Álvaro Saborío (4 goals) and DCU haven’t exactly been dominating at MLB picks so far this year (3-1-4, 10 GF-9 GA at Home), but Lee Nguyen (4 goals) and the Revs are just 1-3-3 (10 GF-17 GA) on the Road and to have any chance to make a run at the MLS Cup, New England (25/1 to win MLS Cup, 888Sport) needs to start winning more Away games, especially within the East. There are better games on the board than this, which looks like it fits the Draw mold.

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Final Score Prediction: DC United 1 Revolution 1
Free MLS Picks: None

 

Philadelphia Union vs. Vancouver Whitecaps
Talen Energy Center in Chester, Pennsylvania in the Site of this inter-conference affair between the Vancouver Whitecaps (6-3-7, 24 GF-27 GA) and the host Union, who will be playing on just 2 Days of Rest (Saturday, Friday) after hosting the Chicago Fire here on Wednesday night. The Whitecaps are currently led in scoring by Pedro Morales (6 goals) and Kekuta Manneh (4 goals) while Chris Pontius and CJ Sapong both had 5 goals headed into Week 16 play for Philadelphia.

The L5 meetings in this series (VAN 3-0 PHI, PHI 3-3 VAN, VAN 0-1 PHI, PHI 0-0 VAN, VAN 1-0 PHI) has seen three Shutouts, including a 0-0 scoreline here in Philly (2012), although the last meeting in this metropolitan area saw the Union and Whitecaps play to a 3-3 Draw (June 7, 2014). Vancouver (22/1 to win MLS Cup, Coral) hasn’t played to a Draw yet on the Road (2-0-5, 11 GF-18 GA) and will be up against it here against a Union side which hadn’t lost at Home heading into Wednesday’s date with the Fire. Lean  hosts here, although they should be tired after having to play Chicago on Wednesday. At least they didn't have to travel.

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Final Score Prediction: Union 2 Whitecaps 1
Free MLS Picks: Union Draw No Bet -150, Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -125 
Best Line Offered: Union Draw No Bet -150 at PaddyPower, Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -125 at StanJames

 

Montreal Impact vs. Sporting Kansas City
Didier Drogba (5 goals) and the Montreal Impact (5-5-4, 22 GF-20 GA) play host to Dominic Dwyer (6 goals) and Sporting Kansas City (6-3-8, 16 GF-18 GA) at Saputo Stadium in Montreal on Saturday night (MLS Live, KMCI-38, TVA Sports) in a big inter-conference showdown for both sides. A look at the L5 meetings (SKC 2-1 MTL, MTL 1-2 SKC, MTL 0-3 SKC, SKC 4-0 MTL, MTL 1-0 SKC) in this series reveals 4 straight Overs in games averaging 3.25 goals with the L2 here in Quebec falling exactly on 3.

Ignacio Piatti (8 goals), Dominic Oduro (4 goals) and the Impact (3-2-1, 11 GF-7 GA) have played a lot of Draws of late (4 of L6), but someone has won the L5 times these two have played and with key SKC cog Graham Zusi either still with the USMNT in the Copa América or just wrapping up play and still worn down, the perceived edges here all seem to be with the Hosts. The Weather forecast for Saturday night in Montreal calls for Mainly Clear Skies and a Low of 65° with light and variable Winds, so, conditions as expected.

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Final Score Prediction: Impact 2 Sporting Kansas City 0
Free MLS Pick: Impact +150 
Best Line Offered: at BetVictor

 

Columbus Crew vs. New York Red Bulls
Bradley Wright-Phillips (8 goals), Mike Grella (6 goals) and the red-hot New York Red Bulls (7-1-7, 26 GF-20 GA entering Wednesday) head to the Ohio capital of Columbus and Mapfre Stadium to face the Crew (2-6-5, 18 GF-20 GA) in a big Eastern Conference tilt for the hosts have seemingly fallen some from the club we saw in last season’s MLS Cup.

Entering play on Wednesday—the Red Bulls were at Salt Lake City—New York had W4 straight in MLS play, outscoring opponents 13-0, but RBNY (10/1 to win MLS Cup, 32Red; down from 20/1 last week) still had just 1 Road Win heading to Utah, making it tough to suggest backing the Road team here who will be playing on just 2 Days Rest (Thursday, Friday) despite their incredible form. A look at the L5 meetings in this series (NY 1-0 CLB, CLB 2-0 NY, NY 2-1 CLB, CLB 2-1 NY, CLB 1-2 NY) reveals the Home team has W4 in a row and two consecutive Clean Sheets with the Crew winning both meetings in the Buckeye State.

But Columbus has been a Draw-Machine of late, tying 4 of 6 games and with the Crew desperate for a Win and RBNY playing its second match in four days and second straight on the Road, this one looks like a good candidate to be a Draw, although it seems the (perceived) edge would be in taking RBNY in the Draw No Bet market where you can find the better soccer club at plus-money (RBNY +110, Paddy Power).

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Final Score Prediction: Crew 2 Red Bulls 2
MLS Picks: Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -150, Red Bulls Draw No Bet +110
Best Line Offered: at PaddyPower

 

Orlando SC vs. Toronto FC
MLS Rookie of the Year Cyle Larin (7 goals), Kevin Molino (4 goals), Kaká (2 goals) and Orlando City (3-8-3, 25 GF-23 GA) have just 3 Wins but also have just 3 Losses and are another Draw-Machine (9), but here at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando on Saturday MLS Live, SN360, TV27) against Sebastian Giovinco (8 goals) and Toronto FC (22/1 to win MLS Cup, William Hill), the hosts could really use the Win not only for the 3 points but for their Heads. These two teams have only played three meetings with Orlando SC just joining the MLS, but Toronto has Won all 3 meetings (TOR 5-0 ORL, TOR 4-1 ORL, ORL 0-2 TOR), outscoring OCSC 11-1 in the process.

So, so far, TFC—who still might be without MF Michael Bradley who was playing with the USMNT in the Copa América Centenario tournament—has totally owned OCSC. Prospective bettors take note that the Weather Forecast for Orlando on Saturday night is calling for Scattered Thunderstorms (40% Chance of Rain), a pleasant Low of 77° with S Winds of 5-10 mph, so the Rains could keep the score down and the field heavy (with water), translating to slower play and tougher footing. This looks like a good Under candidate and it could very well be 0-0 at Halftime in the Sunshine State.

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Final Score Prediction: Orlando 1 Toronto 1
Free MLS Pick: Under 2½ -142 
Best Line Offered: at 888Sport

 

FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake
Maybe the best match of the weekend, FC Dallas (8-4-5, 24 GF-24 GA) welcome Nick Rimando and Real Salt Lake (7-3-4, 25 GF-23 GA) in a Western Conference showdown from Toyota Park in Frisco (suburban Dallas), where the TWC Weather Forecast on Saturday night calls for Partly Cloudy skies, a Low of 77° with S Winds of 10-20 mph. The L5 meetings (RSL 0-1 DAL, DAL 2-0 RSL, RSL 2-1 DAL, DAL 2-1 RSL, RSL 0-0 DAL) has seen FCD go 3-1-1 against RSL, winning both games here and outscoring RSL, 4-1 in the process.

With warm weather, players like Joao Plata (5 goals) and Juan Manuel Martínez (5 goals)—aka “El Burrito”—for Real Salt Lake and Forwards Tesho Akindele (5 goals) and Michael Barrios (5 goals), there should be goals here, making both the Over ( 2½ -118, 888Sport) and the Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -137 (Stan James) worth consideration. Veteran Kyle Beckerman may not be with Real Salt Lake due to his current duty with the USMNT in the aforementioned Copa América. There should be goals.

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Final Score Prediction: FC Dallas 2 Real Salt Lake 1
Free MLS Picks: Over 2½ -118, Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -137 
Best Line Offered: Over 2½ -118 at 888Sport, Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -137 at StanJames

 

San Jose Earthquakes vs. LA Galaxy
The California Clásico will be devoid of some of these two clubs best scorers with Earthquakes prolific Striker Chris Wondolowski and the LA Galaxy’s Gyasi Zardes both either still playing or just getting off duty with the USMNT in the Copa América, while the Galaxy’s Robbie Keane is with his native Republic of Ireland in Europe now participating in EURO 2016.

The L5 meetings between these two Western Conference stalwarts (LA 1-1 SJ, LA 3-1 SJ, SJ 1-0 LA, LA 5-2 SJ, SJ 3-1 LA) has seen the BTTS ‘Yes’ go 4-1, the Home team go 4-1-0 with 16 goals scored in the L5 games. With Keane, Zardes and Wondo out of the picture and the match at Avaya Stadium in San Jose, this is a different handicap and goes from looking at the Over to looking at the Under, with Giovani dos Santos (6 goals), Mike Magee (5 goals) capable of supplying goals but in a hostile environment in an old-fashioned MLS rivalry Saturday night (MLS, Live, Univision).

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Final Score Prediction: Earthquakes 1 LA Galaxy 1
Free MLS Pick: Under 2½ +110 
Best Line Offered: at PaddyPower

 

Portland Timbers vs. Houston Dynamo
The L5 meetings in this series (POR 2-2 HOU, POR 2-0 HOU, HOU 3-1 POR, HOU 1-1 POR, POR 2-0 HOU) has seen the Home team go an unbeaten 3-2-0 with 2 Draws being played, and with this MLS Week 16 match at Providence Park in Portland, Giles Barnes (4 goals), Will Bruin (3 goals) and the 10th- and last-place (Western Conference) Dynamo (0-2-6, 7 GF-14 GA on Road) are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time on Sunday night (ESPN2, MLS Live), even with the defending MLS champion Timbers (5-5-6, 25 GF-27 GA) possibly without MF Darlington Nagbe (USMNT), who like some others in the MLS, will either be done playing in the Copa América or just returning to the team.

But with Fanendo Adi (9 goals), Diego Valeri (5 goals) and Jack McInerney (4 goals) Portland (5-1-2, 16 GF-12 GA at Home) has enough firepower to score at least 2 here and find a way to get the win, even though the Dynamo have been playing to Draws (3 straight, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0) and Unders (4 straight). The Pacific Northwest and Rose City is to place to go and expect a Draw let alone a Win for a last-place soccer team from Teaxs with no Road Wins and just 7 goals in 8 Road dates. Let’s chop a slab or two off the ol’ log, Timber Joey. Seems like a good bet.

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Final Score Prediction: Timbers 2 Dynamo 0
Free MLS Picks: Timbers -142, Under 2½ -125
Best Line Offered: Timbers -142 at SkyBet, Under 2½ -125 at Betfred