MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, June 19, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 19, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay underdog that has a better chance of winning than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

The team with the worst record in the American League is on a bit of a roll right now and look for that to continue Wednesday when Kyle Lohse and the Milwaukee Brewers (28-41, 12-21 away) pay a visit to Erik Bedard and those Houston Astros (27-45, 14-24 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX at 8:10 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Houston as a home underdog for this contest at current odds of +110.

The Astros remain in last place in the American League West with a 27-45 record, but they have now won five of their last six games and they are 17-15 since a 10-30 start to the year. Yes, Houston has benefitted from facing some weak competition as of late, but that may be the case again tonight as Milwaukee is not a good enough road team to be favored over anyone away from home.

The Astros blasted Milwaukee 10-1 in the series opener here last night as +106 underdogs, making the ‘Stros 5-0 the last five times they went off at odds of +100 or higher. In fact, as oftentimes happens with last place teams, Houston is actually undervalued as it is only -0.71 units this season based on betting one unit on the closing odds at Pinnacle, and the Astros are an impressive +14.99 units during their current 17-15 run as they were underdogs in all 17 wins!

Tonight’s starter Bedard has turned his season around nicely after a terrible start to his first year with the Astros, as while he is still just 2-3 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 12 starts, he has now allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight outings, posting a 3.35 ERA over those starts, and both of his wins have come within his last three outings including one last time out vs. the Chicago White Sox when he allowed one unearned run and three hits in six innings.

The Canadian born southpaw is proving that he still has some gas left in the tank at the age of 34, and he now has the support of a vastly improved Houston bullpen. Yes, the Astros’ pen remains dead last in the Major Leagues with a 4.63 ERA, but it has been a totally different story lately as that unit has a 2.42 ERA in 21 innings over the past 10 games following two more scoreless innings last night.

The Brewers have been fairly competitive at home this season but that has usually not been the case on the road, where they are nine games under .500, and the performance of Lohse this year has practically mirrored that of his team.

Lohse was a big off-season signing that was supposed to bolster the Milwaukee pitching staff after going 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA for the St. Louis Cardinals last season, but he already has more losses on the road alone so far this year than he had anywhere all of last season, as he is 1-4 with a 3.92 ERA and a .266 batting average allowed away from Miller Park.

Furthermore, the previously dreadful Houston offense has scored 27 runs in its last five wins, so look for yet another upset by the Astros on Wednesday.


MLB Pick: Astros +110

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