MLB Odds Value In Tigers vs Blue Jays Total

Jay Pryce

Sunday, July 10, 2016 2:07 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 10, 2016 2:07 PM UTC

The Tigers and Blue Jays duel one final time this afternoon before both teams break for the All-Star game. Anibal Sanchez and R.A. Dickey are set to square off. Check out our wirte-up for a play on the total.

Detroit Tigers (46-42) – Anibal Sanchez (5-9, 6.52 ERA)
After a stretch in late June where the Tigers went 10-3 overall, they have dropped four of their last six games. Win or lose this afternoon, they will own a bettor record headed into the All-Star game this year than last, where they entered the break with a 44-44 mark.

Nonetheless, skipper Brad Ausmus would like to see his team win out, and carry some momentum into the second half of the season. He turns to Anibal Sanchez for help today. It is a challenging season for the one-time American League ERA leader (2013), as he sports an ugly 6.52 ERA and 1.60 WHIP into Rogers Centre.  A slew of injuries to the rotation are likely keeping him his job as a starter.

The Tigers are just 3-10 when Sanchez commands the hill in 2016; 1-6 away from Comerica Park with he and the bullpen gifting 7.0 runs on 10.3 hits per game. The OVER is 6-1 with an average combined score of 11 runs sailing over an 8.1 total.

The veteran right-hander is 3-2 with a 4.17 ERA in nine lifetime appearances (seven starts) versus Toronto. The current Jays roster owns a .234 batting average against (29-for-124).

For a club that ranks in the top 10 in runs scored over the last two seasons (4.83 currently), Detroit struggles to cross the plate against the Jays.  In the last calendar year, it has topped three runs just twice in nine matchups.


Toronto Blue Jays (50-40) – R.A. Dickey (6-6, 4.10 ERA)
Toronto’s 3-2 defeat to the Tigers yesterday snapped a seven-game win streak. In the last month, only the Giants (71.4) own a better winning percentage than the reigning AL East champs (69.2) in MLB. The bats have finally come alive for manager John Gibbons. Over the last 30 days, his lineups are crossing the plate 6.5 times per game; it was 4.7 prior to this.

An added confidence booster for Gibbons is the recent play of today’s starter R.A. Dickey. After winning just two of his first 11 starts, the Jays have claimed victory in four of his last seven. The veteran knuckleballer lowered his 4.64 ERA at the beginning of June to 4.10 during the stretch.

Dickey pitches well against the Tigers historically. He is 8-3 with one save and a 4.01 ERA in 20 lifetime appearances (13 starts). The Tigers’ current roster own a .286 batting average against, second baseman Ian Kinsler doing the most damage with three home runs on eight hits in 21 at-bats.


Final Analysis
The Rogers Centre roof will be open this afternoon. Dickey’s knuckle ball tends to float better with it closed, but the wind blowing in from straight-away center should help with the pitches rise and velocity. Although we are not expecting a no-hitter, he should keep the big-slugging Tigers roster tamed. In addition, the UNDER offered on the MLB odds is 11-2 in the Blue Jays’ last 13 at home against a team averaging more runs than they do on the season.

It is definitely a crapshoot playing the total with Sanchez and the Tigers pen, especially on the road against a red-hot Toronto lineup, but considering the conditions, going south of the 10.5 mark offers slight value. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 (-110) is the MLB pick.

Free MLB Pick:  Under 10½ -110
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
Record: 84-54-4 (-104 avg. odds); MLB YTD: 22-10-2 (+104 avg. odds)

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