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ATP Finals: Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner Betting Picks

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ATP Finals: Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner Betting Picks
Russia's Daniil Medvedev reacts after defeating Germany's Alexander Zverev. Photo by Marco Bertorello/AFP.

Local hero Jannik Sinner will face Daniil Medvedev in their final match of the group stage of the ATP Finals in Italy on Thursday. We make our top Medvedev-Sinner picks.

Sinner was one of the most dangerous players on tour in September and October, particularly on indoor hardcourts. He won two titles in Sofia and Antwerp, and he then reached the semifinals in Vienna. After winning the first set over Frances Tiafoe, he ran out of gas. Sinner would go on to lose two more indoor matches, flaming out of Paris and Stockholm, and missing out on qualifying for the ATP Finals in the process.

An injury to his friend and fellow Italian Matteo Berrettini brought him back into the tournament, and he brought the fans in Turin to their feet with a dominant two-set victory over Hubert Hurkacz.

Medvedev has already qualified for the semifinals after taking his first two matches without dropping a set. Sinner will need Hurkacz to defeat Alexander Zverev in the early match on Thursday before he’s able to play Medvedev for a spot in the semis.

Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday’s ATP Finals match between Sinner and Medvedev (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Medvedev vs. Sinner Match Info

Date/Time: Thursday, November 18, 3 p.m. ET
TV: TennisTV
Location: Turin, Italy

Medvedev vs. Sinner Odds Analysis

Sinner opened up as a +250 favorite before he was bet all the way down to +220. He has seen similar line movement across every book, and the public and the sharps appear to be aligned on him.

Medvedev vs. Sinner Picks

To win: Sinner (+220) ★★★★
Spread: Sinner +1.5 sets (-125) ★★★★★

SEE ALSO: Alexander Zverev vs. Hubert Hurkacz Picks

Medvedev vs. Sinner Predictions

Sinner (+220)

The 20-year-old Sinner may have lost pretty convincingly to Medvedev in their previous meeting, but that was a different time. It was this year’s tournament in Marseille, which was all the way back in March. Sinner’s service motion underwent a serious renovation since then, and he has become one of the most dangerous players on tour.

Sinner has found a way to work the power he possesses off of the ground into his serve, which has instantly become yet another weapon. He rounded a corner when he tweaked his service motion, winning in Washington and then going on the aforementioned run. These two players should be a lot closer by the odds, and they should play a match more closely resembling their first meeting, which also came in Marseille in 2020. Sinner lost that one in three sets.

This match will also mean absolutely nothing to Medvedev, who has already qualified for the semifinals. We have seen the players who’ve already qualified throw in the towel and save their energy in these spots over the years.

Sinner will be motivated to beat Medvedev for the first time and give the fans in Italy precisely what they paid for.

Sinner +1.5 (-125)

We can also back Sinner with a spread of insurance while taking him at plus money for the upset. If Hugo Gaston could generate three set points against Medvedev in Paris a couple of weeks ago, then Sinner should be more than up to the task of taking a set against the World No. 2.

While Medvedev’s defense is close to unparalleled, his play at the net is probably his biggest weakness. Sinner should be able to pull some points into the net and win there. He should also be able to return Medvedev’s serve better than anyone the Russian has faced to this point.

Sinner is a dangerous player because he has nothing to lose, whereas Medvedev will likely be mentally checked out and focused on saving his energy for two more matches. He's on to the semis and will hope to advance to defend his ATP Finals title.

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Medvedev-Sinner picks made on 11/17/21 at 7:30 p.m. ET.