Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Boxing Odds: Mayweather Holding Steady in Split Market

Jason Lake

Friday, May 1, 2015 5:18 PM GMT

As we go to press, Floyd Mayweather is still floating around –200 on the boxing odds board for Saturday’s superfight with Manny Pacquiao. But we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the handle.

We’re still waiting for the hammer to fall. It’s Thursday around dinner time here at the ranch, and the boxing odds for Saturday’s “Fight of the Century” have yet to make any significant moves from where they’ve been for nearly two months. The favorite, Floyd Mayweather, Jr., is holding firm at a range between –182 and –225. The underdog, Manny Pacquiao, is likewise available between +162 and +200.

Grab that reverse middle while you can. The Great Flood is just around the corner; estimates from Vegas suggest that only about 20 percent of the expected handle for Saturday’s big fight (9:00 p.m. ET) has come in thus far. Most early bettors have added Pacquiao to their boxing picks – close to 90 percent of them at some locations. But the wagers placed on Mayweather have been much larger, which is why the odds haven’t moved yet. That’ll likely change by the time they ring the bell.

 

Millions of Dollars, Millions of Dollars
Or so we keep saying. There’s still a divide between those who believe Pacquiao will bring in a ton of public money, and those anticipating Mayweather to do the same. Part of the confusion may have to do with how you define “public.” There will be more than just a few seven-figure bets placed on Mayweather this weekend, and not all those high-rollers qualify as sharp bettors. We’re looking at you, Mr. and/or Ms. Celebrity.

Even if the money does come rolling in on Mayweather, you might not see the boxing odds shift all that dramatically. Jay Rood at MGM Resorts (the host venue) went on ESPN 1100 last Friday and warned he might not jack up the chalk on the favorite. “There are worse things in the world than needing Floyd Mayweather to win a fight,” Rood said.

 

Women Weaken Legs
But what if Mayweather doesn’t even show up? Pacquiao’s trainer, Freddie Roach, has been taking potshots at Mayweather all month, and now he’s claiming that Money could be a no-show. “I really am wondering if he’s going to turn up on the night,” Roach said after Wednesday’s arrival ceremonies in Vegas. “His speech is very low-key. Subdued. I don’t think any fighter is afraid, but I don’t think he wanted this fight. He was forced into a fight he didn’t want to take.”

There wasn’t anything subdued about Mayweather’s arrival at the MGM Grand. But if he seems mellow and reflective, maybe it’s because he’s found love, true love. The gossip rags are joyfully playing up Mayweather’s relationship with Doralie Medina, whom he hired as a masseuse two years ago. They’ve reportedly been dating for months now, but things have been taken up a notch – she’s moved into his mansion in Vegas. Ay, there’s the rub.

 

We Want the Cup
Apparently it isn’t enough to inspect your opponent’s gloves and wraps anymore. Mayweather’s camp asked the Nevada State Athletic Commission to inspect Pacquiao’s athletic supporter. They were worried Pac-Man’s full-grain leather cup would cover more a larger area than just his nether regions, thus protecting him from some legal body blows. It’s a reasonable request. Mayweather Promotions CEO Leonard Ellerbe claimed that Oscar De La Hoya’s cup ended up covering his navel when he fought Mayweather in 2007.

On Wednesday, the NSAC had a look and decided everything was kosher. Officials even signed the cup to make sure it would be the same one Pacquiao will wear on Saturday. Ellerbe expressed his satisfaction with the ruling. Meanwhile, Roach says he still hasn’t been given the opportunity to examine Mayweather’s custom-made gloves. If he doesn’t get the chance at Friday’s weigh-in, maybe it’ll be Pacquiao who doesn’t show up on Saturday.

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