Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Betting Odds Skewed as Fan Bet with Hearts Rather Than Smarts

Lee Phelps

Tuesday, April 28, 2015 6:08 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 28, 2015 6:08 PM UTC

The world is waiting for Mayweather versus Pacquiao and we are looking at the best betting opportunities with Lee Phelps from William Hill's boxing podcast.

It is the fight we have been waiting years to see and now it’s almost here. It’s not about the hype, it’s not about the belts, it’s not about the venue, it’s not even about the money ….. okay maybe it is about the money, after all Floyd Mayweather Jr is in the ring and has his ‘0’ to protect against Manny Pacquiao.

The betting has Mayweather as the boxing odds-on favorite to win and become the undisputed greatest fighter of his generation. He, of course, already thinks he is TBE (the best ever). A win for Pacman would further cement his tag as the ‘People’s Champion’ and catapult him back to the top of the pound for pound ‘rankings’.


Round betting
There are plenty of betting markets for the boxing punter, including the method of the win, total rounds, the exact method of victory and for this fight there are loads of specials too. The market we’re looking at is the round by round betting and grouped rounds.

Round by round simply means you have to pick the exact round the fight ends, which is tricky to say the least unless you have a heavyweight who is knocking everyone out, like Deontay Wilder or Anthony Joshua in the UK.

Grouped Rounds refers to a section of the fight when you think it will end, so you can get the second half of the fight (rounds seven to 12), rounds one to three or narrow it down to just two rounds. For example a Pacquiao win in seven to 12 is 8.5 (15/2), in nine to 12 is 13.0 (12/1) or 10 to 12 is 19.0 (18/1).


Floyd Mayweather
Pretty Boy / Money / TBE has gone the distance in his last five fights, last stopping an opponent in 2011 when he dropped Victor Ortiz, who had lowered his guard, so even that what was an unexpected stoppage. Before that he had heard the final bell in five of the previous six fights.

Mayweather isn’t about pleasing the crowd, he is about winning, so he will take his time and build a points win rather than risk being hit and trying to knock his opponent out. Of his 26 stoppages, half came in his first 15 fights, and 10 of his last 12 have gone 12.


Manny Pacquiao
It’s a similar story when you look at the Philippine’s recent record, with nine of the last 10 going the full distance. However it’s not the same reason necessarily. There has been a suggestion Pacquiao doesn’t ‘want to’ knock his opponent and would rather them see the final bell. Instead he takes them apart!

Many fight fans say this fight should have taken place when Pacman was in his pomp. He used to knock people out for fun, including Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, Ricky Hatton, Oscar De La Hoya, Miguel Cotto and so on.


Boxing pick
I know it sounds boring but I don’t see either fighter throwing caution to the wind here, because both know the other is capable of devastating punches. It would be sensational if either is stopped so it’s a points decision for me, but at 1.33 it’s not the right kind of price for me.

My heart is with Pacquiao, but betting with your heart is a mugs' games, so my boxing pick has to be a Mayweather points win at 1.73 and a saver on the draw at 21.0 (22/1).

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