Our soccer handicapper has looked at the betting odds and come up with some interesting betting advice in his free picks for Manchester City vs. Manchester United.
The saying goes 'a week is a long time in politics,' well, it’s quite a long time in football as well. Before the draw versus Chelsea that Man United achieved not many (including me) would have given them much of a chance against the Blues of London or Manchester. All of a sudden it seems Louis Van Gaal may have more than just a chance against their bitter rivals, could they actually beat the champions? What can we learn from reviewing the soccer odds?
I said in previews of the Chelsea game that it was a huge test for United, they hadn't really played anyone up to that point. Everton had been the only top six team from last year and they were well off the form of that season. I also knew the world class players in van Gaal’s squad would raise their game against Jose Mourinho's men and so they did. I talked about the fact Man United had had less shots on target than West Ham and Everton in previous home games, but against Chelsea they had more. It was a tale of two halves with United missing opportunities in the first 45 minutes and the Londoners dominating the second half of the game. Refereeing decisions also came into it but then they always do.
All of a sudden it seems Manuel Pellegrini's team need this game more than Manchester United do. They lost to West Ham in a lacklustre display in the Premier League, then were beaten by Newcastle in the League Cup. You have to wonder if we've seen them lose both their titles inside a week, although it would be foolish to rule them out winning the league just yet. What they do know is that a defeat would hurt them deeply. There is obviously no sense of crisis at the Etihad just yet, an individual error gave Newcastle their first goal and then you're always susceptible to a second when you're pushing forward.
There does seem to be something missing at City this season. As good as Aguero is, and he is incredible, they seemed more intent on finding their way into games then punishing teams by playing them off the park. I went with Chelsea to win the Premier League at the start of the season because I thought Manchester City would put too much emphasis on the Champions League this season. They still have lots of work to do to get out of the group stages, with a home game against CSKA Moscow just around the corner you wonder which is more important to the owners. We all know which is more important to the fans.
I haven't really looked at stats for this game, because I think passion will take over. On the disciplinary front soccer picks I’m looking at 'over 65' booking points, I can easily see a red card in the match as the players and the officials are tested. Chelsea have got a relatively easy home game against QPR, so Manchester City know defeat could possibly mean a nine point gap to the league leaders and United would close to within a point of them.
Since City’s first Premier league title the head to head has featured lots of goals. Only one has failed to have three or more goals and the majority have featured over 3.5.
Last season the blue half won seven goals to one on aggregate with Aguero and Dzeko both scoring two each. I would back Aguero to score any time in this game. As for Manchester United, I don't think it matters too much if Rooney is fit or not I would stick with the team that played well against Chelsea. I also think they will attack Man City on the break allowing them to have possession, remaining solid in midfield and defence and hoping whatever chances they get their strikers can take them.
I was impressed by van Gaal’s team against Chelsea but I don't think they have achieved consistency yet. Manchester City’s bad week will only make them more determined to put things right and I see Manchester City winning by three goals to 1.
Free Soccer picks: Manchester City win and Aguero to score 19/10 at Bet365