The UFC odds on Ronda Rousey have been prohibitive due to her thorough dismantling of every woman in the bantamweight division. But perhaps we can gain an edge with props in her upcoming battle with Miesha Tate and beyond.
Whatever accolades and plaudits you can conjure to describe the preternatural performances of Ronda Rousey still do not do this cage warrior justice. She has done what no other fighter has before in the UFC and that is finished all her opponents in the first round except one, Miesha Tate, who succumbed in Round 3 of a five-round championship match. Nine of 12 of those finishes were scored within one minute of the opening bell! If this were a video game you wouldn't buy it because the programmers had made it too easy. Consequently, the UFC odds have been skyrocketing. Let's look at the chart below in her last 10 fights as the first two fights of her career were non-lined matches.
Ronda Rousey's Last 10 Lined Matches
W Bethe Correia UFC 190 - Rousey vs. Correia -1400 KO (Round 1) 0:34
W Cat Zingano UFC 184 - Rousey vs. Zingano -800 Submission (Round 1) 0:14
W Alexis Davis UFC 175 - Weidman vs. Machida -850 KO (Round 1) 0:16
W Sara McMann UFC 170 - Rousey vs. McMann -360 TKO (Round 1) 1:06
W Miesha Tate UFC 168 - Weidman vs. Silva 2 -650 Submission (Round 3) 0:58
W Liz Carmouche UFC 157 - Rousey vs. Carmouche -1000 Submission (Round 1) 4:49
W Sarah Kaufman Strikeforce - Rousey vs. Kaufman -800 Submission (Round 1) 0:54
W Miesha Tate Strikeforce - Tate vs. Rousey -400 Submission (Round 1) 4:27
W Julia Budd Strikeforce - Challengers 20 -700 Submission (Round 1) 0:39
W Sarah D'Alelio Strikeforce - Challengers 18 -650 Submission (Round 1) 0:25
Can We Bet Her?
As I have said before I am not willing to bet my mortgage payment in order to pay a light bill. In her last match versus Bethe Correia the UFC odds were as high as -1850 in some shops before they closed at -1400. Apparently the sportsbooks were getting just enough underdog money to make them drop the UFC odds on the seemingly invincible Rowdy Ronda.
Therefore we must find a way to bet Rousey's fights without taking out an equity loan to do so. Despite the fact that she has never demonstrated anything but utter dedication in her training regimen as well as an undeniable laser-locked focus on her upcoming opponents there are no guarantees she won't have an off-night. Even Iron Mike Tyson looked every bit as indestructible before his fall from grace at the hands of James "Buster" Douglas. In fact, Tyson was so dominant during his reign that when he walked into the ring on February 11th, 1990 he was 37-0 (34 KO's) and a -3300 betting odds favorite before getting clocked, rocked and stopped in the 10th round.
Therefore, anything can happen and understanding that hindsight is 20/20 we need to study a fighter's past but be aware that the future is never guaranteed to produce an anticipated result. I believe the only way we can bet for or against Rousey is by virtue of the proposition wagering opportunities. As of this writing Rousey is a prohibitive -1200 favorite over Miesha Tate. But Tate is the only woman to go beyond the first round and is stylistically best suited to hang with Rousey however brief that may be. Tate is a savvy cage veteran who has been defeated twice by Rousey, both by armbars.
Yet Rousey is not so quick to take the fight to the mat these days. She has developed a punishing striking arsenal to complement her menacing mat attack. If Tate is indeed next woman up for Rousey on December 5th then we may want to go over the anticipated 1 ½ total rounds. Tate has enough cage IQ to stay away when Rousey comes calling and turn this into a game of cat and mouse that she will ultimately lose. But I believe Tate is the mouse that can escape long enough to make 'over' in their bout a UFC pick worthy of consideration.