Major League Soccer Most Profitable Picks For Week 12

Kevin Stott

Thursday, May 19, 2016 12:59 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 19, 2016 12:59 PM UTC

Handicapping information for all 10 MLS matches this weekend and soccer picks for some games as well as those hopefully creamy ones distinguished as Best Bets.

Friday, May 20, 2016

Philadelphia Union vs. DC United
After three consecutive 1-0 Clean Sheets in this Eastern Conference series, DC United has won the L2 meetings—both Overs—but in matches played at Home in the friendly confines of RFK Stadium in Washington, DC (L5 Meetings in series: DC 3-2 PHI, DC 2-1 PHI, PHI 1-0 DC, DC 1-0 PHI, PHI 0-1 DC). Here at PPL Park, expect Philadelphia (4-3-3, 14 GF-11 GA)—which has scored in its L6 games and has played some pretty good Defense so far this season in front of GK Andre Blake (34 saves)—to be ready for Álvaro Saborio (4 goals), Patrick Nyarko (3 goals), Fabián Espíndola (3 goals) and DC United (3-4-4, 13 GF-13 GA).

The Union (3-2-0, 10 GF-4 GA) are unbeaten at Home—they play both here at PPL Park in Philadelphia and also at Talen Energy Stadium in suburban Chester—so far this Regular Season and with Forward CJ Sapong (5 goals), Chris Pontius (4 goals) and Sebastien Le Toux (2 goals), among others, Philadelphia has its own group of scorers and should find a way to win this one. DC United is 3-0-4 (7 GF-9 GA) lifetime in Philadelphia in MLS play and the L5 matches between these two clubs here in the City of Brotherly Love and Bouncing Soccer Balls all went Under the Total with all 5 being Clean Sheets (PHI 1-0 DC, DC 1-0 PHI, PHI 2-0 DC, PHI 0-1 DC, PHI 0-1 DC), so backing the hosts and the Under small seems somewhat logical.

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Free Soccer Picks: Under 2½ -111, Union +120
Best Line Offered: at PaddyPower


Saturday, May 21, 2016

NYCFC vs. New York Red Bulls
It’s off to the “Concrete Jungle where dreams are made of” for this fun Big Apple metro area showdown between Old Dogs, the New York Red Bulls (3-1-7, 13 GF-20 GA) and the 2015 expansion New York City Football club, aka NYCFC (4-4-3, 17 GF-16 GA), who for the time being at least are having a better season than RBNY, although this is a league where clubs can go from zero to hero in the blink of an eye with six teams in each Conference qualifying for the Playoffs. These two have only played three times (NY 2-0 NYCFC, NYCFC 1-3 NY, NY 2-1 NYCFC), and as you can see, the Red Bulls have shown the New Kickers On The Block what’s up in The Big Apple, winning all 3 meetings and outscoring NYCFC 7-2 in the process.

The Weather Forecast for The House That Ruth Built and The Bronx—the borough in New York City where Yankee Stadium dwells—for Saturday night calls for a steady Rain in the evening with Showers continuing late (60% chance of Rain), a Low of 53° with light NE Winds around 5-10 mph, so possibly wet and nippy and miserable but perfect for a MLB stadium, right? Two things to be aware of here are that RBNY (0-1-5, 2 GF-11 GA on Road) and Bradley Wright-Phillips (3 goals) have been absolutely horrible on the Road this season and will be coming off just 2 Days of Rest (Thursday-Friday) after hosting the Chicago Fire on Wednesday night (MLS Live, 7:30 p.m. EDT/4:30 p.m. PDT). So, this sort of seems like a good spot for David Villa (8 goals), Thomas McNamara (3 goals) and host NYCFC (1-4-1, 7 GF-7 GA) until you realize this second-year franchise has just 1 Win at Home and has never beaten the Red Bulls.

Can you say ”Draw mold”? Despite the oddsmakers number, it always seems that the configurations of Yankee Stadium make for an extra, weird goal and the only time these two played here, there were 4 goals scored. With playmakers and scorer Villa on a roll for NYCFC and Wright-Phillips and RBNY trying to rally, both teams should score here and the Over seems like the best call.

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Free Soccer Picks: Over 2½ -110, Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -150
Best Line Offered: at PaddyPower


Chicago Fire vs. Houston Dynamo
The L5 meetings (HOU 1-1 FIRE, FIRE 2-1 HOU, HOU 2-0 FIRE, FIRE 1-1 HOU, HOU 1-1 FIRE) in this inter-conference series has seen three Draws and the Both Teams To Score “Yes” go 4-1—its 7-1 over the L8—but both 10th-place (Eastern) Chicago (1-4-4, 8 GF-12 GA) and 10th-place (Western) Houston (3-2-6, 18 GF-19 GA) are off to nasty starts and can’t be trusted in terms of reliability. The Fire (1-2-2, 6 GF-7 GA at Home) will come into this 4 p.m. CDT (Chicago time start) Saturday afternoon start with just 2 Days Rest (Thursday-Friday) after travelling to Harrison, NJ to face the Red Bulls on Wednesday night.

The Weather Forecast for Bridgeview (suburban Chicago) on Saturday afternoon calls for Cloudy conditions with an 80% chance of Rain—although pleasant 70° temperatures are forecast—with fairly decent NNE Winds of 10-20 mph. So, Mother Nature could definitely affect this match, among several others this week. Giles Barnes (4 goals), Will Bruin (3 goals), Andrew Wenger (3 goals) and the Dynamo (0-0-5, 5 GF-11 GA on Road) haven’t earned a point on the Road yet and are worth fade consideration here in the Draw No Bet market (Fire -153, BetVictor), backing Kennedy Igboananike (4 goals) and Chicago.

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Free Soccer Picks: Fire Draw No Bet -153, Both Teams To Score “Yes” -129
Best Line Offered: at BetVictor


New England Revolution vs. FC Dallas
The Skinny here is that prolific MLS scorer Kei Kamara is now a member of the New England Revolution (2-7-3, 15 GF-20 GA) after being traded by the Columbus Crew just before the Trade Deadline last week following a silly incident the match before with Kamara fighting to take a PK with a teammate with the Crew leading 3-1. So, all of a sudden the Revs plug in one of the best scorers in the league just like that. Sploink. FC Dallas (7-2-4, 19 GF-19 GA) is coming off two straight Home Wins (Timbers, Sounders), but with the Home side having lost just one time in the L11 meetings in this series and with Kamara (5 goals) now onboard, New England should evolve some Offensively ... and it needs to with just 2 Wins (but 7 Draws) in the their first 12 matches.

The Weather Forecast for Foxborough on Saturday evening calls for Cloudy conditions with occasional Showers late, a 40% chance of Rain, a Low of 50° with SSW Winds of 10-15 mph, so potentially not the greatest of conditions and maybe good for the Under. The L5 meetings (DAL 3-0 NE, DAL 2-0 NE, NE 0-1 DAL, DAL 1-0 NE, NE 2-0 DAL) in this series reveals that Dallas won here in its last trip (1-0) and actually the L6 games in this series have all been Clean Sheets, great for the Both Teams To Score “No” Props market (No +110, BetVictor) punters. Dallas was the better team with the site a neutralizer in the Handicap but with Kamara joining and potential Purple Rain, there are too many variables here and this one’s probably best just left alone. It’s hard to trust Road clubs in Soccer in general and FC Dallas (2-0-4, 6 GF-14 GA) has a 0 GD and will be traveling east from CDT to EDT and losing an Body Clock Hour, for what it’s worth.

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Free Soccer Picks: none
Best Line Offered: n/a


Toronto FC vs. Columbus SC
oronto FC (4-2-4, 13 GF-11 GA) is now comfortably back at Home after a 8-match Road Stint to start the season and the Reds and Sebastian Giovinco (8 goals) will have to try to get scoring from some other places than the prolific Giovinco with no other TFC player scoring twice and Striker Jozy Altidore (Hamstring) now Injured and Out. Columbus SC (2-4-4, 12 GF-15 GA)obviously comes in now without former star scorer Kei Kamara—dealt to New England—but the Crew (0-2-3, 2 GF-6 GA) still have Federico Higuaín (3 goals) and did make it all the way to the MLS Cup last season and may be better off without Kamara in the long run.

But for now, it seems to be a negative and this seems like a good spot for Will Johnson (1 goal) and the Reds. The Weather Forecast for Toronto on Saturday night calls Clear to Partly Cloudy skies, a Low of 52° with NNE Winds of 5-10 mph. The L5 Meetings in this series (TOR 0-2 CLB, CLB 3-3 TOR, CLB 2-0 TOR, CLB 2-3 TOR, TOR 3-2) reveals some high-scoring affairs in this series, but that was when Kamara was in a Crew kit. The Reds really need the Win here, but it’s hard to imagine the Crew and Higuaín not scoring.

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Free Soccer Picks: Toronto FC +110, Over 2½ +105
Best Line Offered: at BetVictor


Orlando City SC vs Montréal Impact
These two clubs have just 1 Win between them and 7 Draws in their L12 overall matches combined, so like many in the MLS, these two continue to hover and earn their points where they can get them. With OCSC just joining the MLS last year, the two have only played three times (ORL 2-1 MTL, MTL 2-0 ORL, MTL 2-2 ORL) with each team winning once on their Home turf and a Draw in the first-ever meeting (March 28, 2015) between the two sides in Quebec. The Site (Citrus Bowl) could be an edge here for Orlando City SC (2-5-3, 17 GF-16 GA) but Chelsea legend Didier Drogba will truly relish playing in the warmer (but possibly wetter) Weather of the Sunshine State—the Weather Forecast for Orlando on Saturday evening calls for Thunderstorms, an 80% chance of Rain, a Low of 73° with WSW Winds of 10-15 mph—although 2015 MLS Rookie of the Year Cyle Larin (4 goals), Kevin Molino (4 goals), Adrian Winter (2 goals) and playmaker Kaká (2 goals) have developed a very nice Roster but still only have one Win at Home (1-4-0, 10 GF-7 GA). So with all of these elements and the visitors having a plethora of scorers of their own in the 38-year-old Drogba (4 goals), Ignacio Piatti (6 goals) and Dominic Oduro (4 goals), this one should go Over unless the Weather becomes too much of an impediment—a real damp possibility in the MLS in the Spring months. This one could be fun.

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Free Soccer Picks: Over 2½ -118
Best Line Offered: at Marathon


Sporting Kansas City vs. Real Salt Lake
The L5 meetings in this series (SKC 1-2 RSL, RSL 2-1 SKC, RSL 2-1 SKC, SKC 0-0 RSL, SKC 0-0 RSL) shows three straight RSL wins (after two scoreless Draws), so with Dominic Dwyer (5 goals) and Sporting Kansas City (5-2-6, 13 GF-14 GA) having just 1 Win in its L9 matches—a 2-1 Win here at Home vs OCSC in its last game—thinking about backing sparkplug Joao Plata (4 goals) and an RSL side which has beaten this SKC team 3 straight seems worth consideration, although the Draw No Bet (RSL +220, Paddy Power) marketplace would provide the safest approach from that particular angle (an RLS upset) and is being offered at a more-than healthy return price.

The Weather Forecast for Kansas City on Saturday night calls for Partly Cloudy conditions, a low around 55° with ESE Winds from 5-10 mph, so, again, a little Chilly for mid-May. Quality attempts in this one could be limited and this is another match which fits that Draw mold with the better team (for now) on the Road and playing a side that is coming off its first Win in 9 matches and needs to defend (and not lose) on its Home turf (Sporting Kansas City 3-1-2, 8 GF-7 GA at Children’s Mercy Park).

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Free Soccer Picks: Real Salt Lake Draw No Bet +220
Best Line Offered: at PaddyPower


Seattle Sounders vs. Colorado Rapids
Jermaine Jones (3 goals), Argentine Luis Solignac (3 goals) and the 1st-place (Western Conference) Colorado Rapids (7-3-2, 15 GF-9 GA) have allowed an MLS-low 9 goals behind GK Zac MacMath and are off to their best start in years, are playing some really good Soccer and will be getting American and soon former Everton GK Tim Howard on maybe the best Defensive club in the league right now this Summer. Hello Commerce City. But that’s when things get tough for teams in Sports—when you’ve reached the top and the season is still not even halfway over and everyone’s gunning for you, knowing you’ve suddenly become a hard club to score against.

And the host Sounders (4-0-2, 7 GF-4 GA) know that role all too well, giving up just 4 scores in 6 Home dates this season and after allowing the least numbers of goals last season for quite sometime...only to disappoint and see another chance at an MLS title go down the road. The Weather Forecast for the Emerald City on Saturday night calls for Cloudy conditions with occasional Rain Showers (60% chance of Rain), a Low near 50° with S Winds of 5-10 mph, so very Seattle-y with 80% Humidity.But can Jordan Morris (4 goals), Chad Marshall (2 goals) and Clint Dempsey (2 goals) find a way to score here against a team 11 points ahead of them (34-23) in the league table? This is a tough spot for both sides and the Home crowd and Site could help being the difference in a match in which it’s hard to see where the goals will come from. A 0-0 Halftime Scoreline Prop bet is currently priced at a high of +190 (Coral) on Oddschecker.

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Free Soccer Picks: Under 2½ -111, Both Teams To Score ‘No’ +110
Best Line Offered: at 888sport and PaddyPower


Sunday, May 22, 2016

Portland Timbers vs. Vancouver Whitecaps
The L5 Meetings in this series (VAN 2-1 POR, VAN 0-2 POR, POR 0-0 VAN, POR 1-1 VAN, POR 0-0 VAN) has seen 4 Unders and the last game going Over by ½ a goal with 2 goals scored in the L3 games here at Providence Park including two scoreless 0-0 Draws. Toss in some potentially crappy Sunday afternoon Weather (TWC: Increasing Clouds with Showers expected after Midnight, 60% chance of Rain, a Low of 51° with SW Winds of around 5 mph) in the Rose City and this could be muddy. With Fanendo Adi (8 goals) the Timbers (3-3-6, 17 GF-22 GA) just 3-5-1 (13 GF-9 GA) here at Home lifetime against Vancouver (6-2-5, 20 GF-20 GA) in MLS play and Pedro Morales (5 goals) and the Whitecaps feeling good about themselves lately after beating Toronto in TO last weekend and getting Japanese sensation Masato Kudo onboard and in a groove for his new team in his new surroundings, this is a tough betting spot.

Masato scored in a 2-1 Whitecaps victory over these defending MLS champion Timbers in Vancouver back on May 7, so this is probably best just watched and yet another match with a strong chance of ending up tied with the Timbers just 3-1-2 (11 GF-10 GA) at Home at Providence Park so far this season. Hey, Timber Joey jus’ wanna chop some Log, bruh. Please? This Pacific Northwest and Cascadia Cup date should be one of the better games in the MLS this weekend is appropriately ESPN’s nationally televised game of the week and any Rain and nasty Weather would only make for added entertainment value.

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Free Soccer Picks: Timbers Draw No Bet -187
Best Line Offered: at Stan James


LA Galaxy vs. San José Earthquakes

Another great game to close out the MLS Week 12 weekend features this Southern California series dubbed the “California Clásico” and in the L5 Meetings (LA 3-1 SJ, SJ 1-0 LA, LA 5-2 SJ, SJ 3-1 LA, SJ 1-1 LA) has seen the Both Teams To Score (‘Yes’) go 4-1 with an average of 3.60 gpg with the Home club winning the L4. And with gunners like Robbie Keane (4 goals), Gyasi Zardes (4 goals), Mike Magee (4 goals) and Giovani dos Santos (5 goals) on the Galaxy (5-4-1, 24 GF-12 GA) and Chris Wondolowski (7 goals) and Alberto Quintero (3 goals) on the Earthquakes (5-3-3, 15 GF-14 GA), there should be at least 3 goals and possibly 5 scored here, especially with a healthy 35-year-old Irishman Keane back in the fold for the hosts.

The Weather Forecast for suburban Los Angeles (Carson) on Sunday (late) afternoon calls for plentiful Sunshine, a High of 68° with W Winds of 10-20 mph, so the nicest forecasted conditions for all 10 games looked at here. San José won both meetings between the two last season at Avaya Stadium but the Quakes haven’t won here in Lalaland since the 2012 season and got smacked around 5-2 here at The Stub last year (June 17) in a game which saw the most goals scored in the California Clásico in its 20-year MLS history. With the LA Galaxy in a groove and possessing the best Goal Differential (+12) in the MLS at this point in Time, backing the hosts is the logical pick and maybe using LA with a solid MLB pick would make a nice little 2-leg Parlay.

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Free Soccer Picks: LA Galaxy -200, Over 2½ -166, Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -137
Best Line Offered: at 32Red, Unibet, and at Coral


MLS SOCCER WEEK 12 SATURDAY BEST BETS PICKS: NYCFC-Red Bulls Over 2½ -110, NYCFC-Red Bulls Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ -150 (Paddy Power), Fire Draw No Bet -153 (BetVictor), Toronto FC +110 (Marathon), Toronto FC-Crew Over 2½ +105 (BetVictor), OCSC-Impact Over 2½ -118 (Marathon), Sounders-Rapids Under 2½ -111 (888sport)

MLS SOCCER WEEK 12 SUNDAY BEST BETS PICKS: LA Galaxy -200 (32Red), LA Galaxy-Earthquakes Over 2½ -166 (Unibet)

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