Main Favorites Betting Analysis For Day 7 Of The ATP Australian Open

João Mourato

Friday, January 22, 2016 6:21 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 22, 2016 6:21 PM GMT

Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are the two main favorite in action on ATP Australian Open Day 7. Find out if there is value on their betting spread and the best sportsbook to place your wager.

Roger Federer (3) vs David Goffin (15)
After two outstanding performances against Nikoloz Basilashvili and Alexandr Dolgopolov, Roger Federer lost his first set on this event against Grigor Dimitrov. The Suisse struggled on baseline rallies against Grigor, ending the match with 15 winners / 43 unforced errors from the baseline. Roger tried to rush into the net as often as possible to avoid baseline rallies, winning 73% of points at the net.

David Goffin had a very tough second round against Damir Dzumhur, losing the second set by 0 – 6 and clearly struggling with the heat, however managed to overcome that difficult match. On the following round he was priced as underdog against Dominic Thiem, but the rain came in Goffin’s rescue. With the roof closed, the conditions got better for David’s counter punching, with the Belgian defeating Dominic in four sets.

This will be the fourth career meeting between these two players, with Federer leading 3 – 0 on h2h.

David has never been an easy match-up for Federer, with the Belgian winning one set in two of their three previous meetings. Roger can’t get into longer baseline rallies with Goffin and his backhand slice will be crucial to cut David’s rhythm. The Suisse has been serving at good level this week, placing 64.2% first serve in and holding 95.6% of service games. If Roger can keep his numbers around 65% it will be very hard for Goffin to break him, on the other hand the Belgian is not so reliable on serve, winning only 69.6% of service games this week. The key for Federer is to keep the points short and he should get the job done in straight sets, however his spread is quite high at -8.0 (-105) on Pinnacle and we believe there is no value on these tennis odds.

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Novak Djokovic (1) vs Gilles Simon (14)
After a brilliant first set, Novak Djokovic was close from losing his first set on this competition. The Serbian won by 6 – 1 7 – 5 7 – 6, saving two set points on third set tie break. This was Djokovic’s toughest contest on this event, but the world no.1 found his best tennis on pressure points and ended the match without dropping his serve. Novak said he was very pleased for winning that match in straight sets, but felt he could have done some things better on 2nd and 3rd set.

Gilles Simon is for the third time on Australian Open’s 4th round, with his best career result achieved in 2009 when he reached the quarterfinals. The French had a tough five sets battle in the 2nd round against Evgeny Donskoy, but had no problems in the following round against Federico Delbonis, dismissing the Argentinean by 6 – 3 6 – 2 6 – 1. The French was extremely solid against Delbonis, ending the match with 24 winners / 15 unforced errors.

Simon won the first contest they played in 2008, but since then Djokovic won nine straight matches.

Djokovic will be looking for a better performance after the problems he had against Seppi. The Serbian always seeks for perfection and will try to win this match with an authoritarian performance. Simon is never an easy opponent to face with his consistent baseline game and counter punching skills, but Djokovic should be just too good for the French. The spread for this match is at -8.5 (-108) on Pinnacle and we suggest to add this bet to your tennis picks.

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