Money Mayweather has won his last 5 out of 6 fights dating back to '09 by decision. He's not the staggering puncher he once was and his level of competition has gotten considerably better. Marcos Maidana is a pit bull who doesn't get gassed and will go the distance unless the ring doctor intervenes and says, no mas. I guess there is always the possibility of Maidana shocking the world and knocking Mayweather on his royal arse but that possibility would only exist in the early rounds.
So what do we have left? Betting Mayweather flat is prohibitive. The boxing odds on the champ ranges from -1000 to -1800 and nobody is worth that. So, we have essentially two plausible scenarios before us. Mayweather can knock out Maidana which is unlikely as Maidana has never been stopped and Mayweather hasn't stopped anyone in five years. Which leaves us with a bet on Mayweather in the most likely scenario of victory at far less juice than the -1800 some offshores are dealing.
In your boxing prop odds you could do far worse than betting Mayweather -225 to win by decision.
Maidana by KO +950 (-1700, any other result)
This fight will end in one of two ways. Most likely Mayweather will knock off Maidana in the same fashion as he has won his last several bouts and that is by rat-a-tat-tatting, sticking, moving, shucking, jiving and ultimately outpointing his opponent. Or Maidana will come out with guns blazing and catch the 37-year-old Mayweather clowning and stun the boxing world.
While most subscribe to the former, the latter will fetch you a far better price. If Maidana is to win this fight he won't be doing it by leaving it in the hands of the judges. Mayweather will score more often and Maidana will be hopelessly behind by the eighth round if it goes that long. Maidana's camp understands that and in order for their fighter to win, he must do it early and that means a KO of the king.
We give Maidana a puncher's chance in this fight and the prop odds are begging us to toss a few bucks his way. Now remember this proposition wager calls for a KO by Maidana. Any other result, including a TKO by Maidana, will cost you -1700. We think this prop has a chance to cash.
Play Maidana +950 to win by a knockout.
Maidana Wins in
If we give Marcos Maidana the chance of winning this fight, then we have to believe it will be by a TKO or KO because Maidana is not going to outpoint the silky smooth Floyd Mayweather. Nobody else has and Maidana is not built to out-slick Money. However, he does have dynamite in his fists and if he's going to seal the deal, the deed will be done in the early rounds. That brings us to the props being offered on which round Maidana will secure his place in history.
Because we're getting so much return on our investment, we can afford to bet several rounds and still make plenty of green if this clicks. Maidana isn't likely to win this fight late. If he wins, it will come early and we intend to capitalize on that possibility.
Play Maidana winning in rounds 1 (+9000), 2 (+8000), 3 (+7500), 4 (+7200) and 5 (+7200).