Jordan’s WNBA Picks 14-16-1
Minnesota Lynx at Chicago Sky
Already as the line has opened this morning, the money is coming in on Chicago and for good reason. The Sky may have their shortcomings on defense and in the turnover department, but this is a good basketball team.
Chicago comes into Wednesday 8-5-1 ATS and they are a smooth 5-2 ATS when playing at home.
On top of that, the Sky’s defense gets a lot better when they play at home, hence the reason they are so good ATS there. Chicago is holding opponents to 91.9 points per 100 possessions at home this season, which ranks them 3rd-best in the league.
The Lynx have played well lately though, which makes this one tough to handicap the whole game. Minnesota is posting an offensive rating of 103.8 over their last five games, which ranks them second among all teams during a five-game stretch.
With that in mind, I do like the Sky, but I was lucky enough to lock them in as underdogs, which they are no longer. I don’t mind them on the moneyline, but I think a better play might be the first half total once again.
After opening at 79, it has bumped to 80 points, but for good reason. The Sky and Lynx play extremely fast in the first half, as they both rank in the top five in league pace.
Chicago is also one of the better first-half scoring teams in the league, with a 102.6 offensive rating. However, Chicago also gives up 104.2 points per 100 possessions in the first half and while that does dip a lot when they play at home, their first-half home pace of 101.7 will more than make up for their improved defense. I’m trusting the process and going with a first half over.