Looking For Deep Value At UFC Fight Night 105

Jason Lake

Thursday, February 16, 2017 9:00 PM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 16, 2017 9:00 PM UTC

Sunday’s fight card in Halifax has been shuffled around due to multiple injuries. If you’re a chalkeater, it’s time to hit the UFC odds board and take advantage.

Welcome to Halifax, Nova Scotia. This quiet Maritime town will host UFC Fight Night 105 this Sunday (9:00 p.m. ET, FS1), except it won’t be quiet inside the old Metro Centre. Good Lord, no. Haligonians really, really love their combat sports – shout out to New Scott. They packed the place for UFC Fight Night 54 back in October 2014, and they’ll be back for more this weekend.

Unfortunately, the card isn’t quite as strong this time. They’ve had to make some major changes over the past month due to injuries. The new main event features Derrick Lewis taking on Travis Browne in Heavyweight action; it looks like an even matchup on paper, with Lewis the slight –115 favorite on the UFC odds board as we go to press. But let’s look a little further down the card, because that’s where the betting value’s going to be after all these changes.

Mystery, Alaska

There’s one fight in particular that seems ripe for our UFC picks. Sara McMann was supposed to face Liz Carmouche in the Women’s Bantamweight division, but Carmouche had to pull out on February 2 because of an undisclosed injury. Her replacement: Gina “Danger” Mazany, who will make her official UFC debut on Sunday. Mazany was part of The Ultimate Fighter 18, but she lost her two-round prelim fight to Julianna Peña in the first episode and didn’t make it into the tournament.

As they say, this is a tough spot for Mazany. She’s 4-0 lifetime in non-exhibitions, with those four matches spread out over the past nine years – the most recent in May 2016, when she fought in her hometown of Anchorage for the Alaska Fighting Championship promotion. McMann (10-3 lifetime, 4-3 UFC), meanwhile, is a proven commodity in the Octagon, and the No. 7-ranked woman in her division according to Sherdog.

My opponent has changed on short notice. Big thanks to Gina Mazany for accepting the fight so… https://t.co/8qEoUWRtmp

— Sara McMann (@Sara_McMann) February 3, 2017

McMann is available as low as –400 at William Hill as we go to press. She was previously listed as a –225 favorite over Carmouche, the No. 10-ranked Women’s Bantamweight. This doesn’t even begin to address the difference between Carmouche and Mazany. Of course, anything can happen inside the Octagon. Maybe Mazany is a hidden gem who will shine in the international spotlight. I hope so, because it would be a great story. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

Free UFC Pick: McMann –400
Best Line Offered: at William Hill

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