Lock Wolsfburg to Take Road Win vs. Mainz as Bundesliga Soccer Pick

SBR Staff

Wednesday, November 4, 2015 5:04 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015 5:04 PM UTC

Mainz faces Wolfsburg this weekend and the soccer odds show some pretty good value. Will Mainz lose at home yet again? Let's review this game and decide on a free soccer pick.

The +130 on offer at Bet365 for Wolfsburg to beat Mainz in this match is excellent value. Mainz’s home form has been dreadful of late. They have lost their last four games at the Coface Arena, to Werder Bremen, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich and the lowly 1860 Munich, conceding 10 goals and scoring just twice. Wolfsburg are on a high after winning three in a row in the Bundesliga, a run of form that has catapulted them to third in the table, and they will arrive at Mainz brimming with confidence and keen to keep the pressure on second-placed Dortmund. 


Wolfsburg have shaken off the loss of talismanic star player Kevin de Bruyne, who was sold to Manchester City in the summer, and continued the strong form that saw them finish runners-up in the Bundesliga last season and win the cup. They have only lost twice in the league this season – to the near-invincible Bayern Munich and Borussia Monchengladbach – and have seen off a lot of good teams, including wins over Bayer Leverkusen, Darmstadt 98 and Hoffenheim in their last three games. Bas Dost has hit six goals, while Julian Draxler has been a revelation as De Bruyne’s replacement in midfield. The only question mark lies in Wolfsburg’s away form. At home they have won five, drawn one and lost none, taking 16 points out of a possible 18. Away from home they have the third worst record in the league, having won one, drawn two and lost two. 

It is this poor form on the road that has seen them lingering 10 points behind the mighty Bayern Munich in third. They have to improve their away record, and there is no better place to change that than the Coface Arena. At home, Mainz have lost four out of six games so far this season and are there for the taking. This is a perfect opportunity for Wolfsburg to get back to winning ways, and their recent form suggests they have the strength in defense and spark going forwards to make it happen.

One thing you can certainly bet on is that this game will see goals. Mainz haven’t kept a clean sheet since August 29. Since then, they have shipped 19 goals in nine games – including eight in the past three matches – and have a particularly leaky defense. But going forward they are an exciting team. Two of their forwards, Yunus Malli and Yoshinori Muto, are sitting near the summit of the top scorer charts, with six apiece in the league this season. In their last game, a 3-3 draw with Augsburg, Muto hit a hat-trick. Wolfsburg have also found their shooting boots and hit nine goals in their last four league games. Soccer odds such as the -150 on offer at Sporting Bet looks good in this match. You can also get -187.5 at Sky Bet on both teams to score, which is another interesting bet. 


Odds Overview
For a correct score, the +1700 on offer at BetVictor for Wolfsburg to win 3-1 looks a good soccer pick, as does the +800 PaddyPower is offering on a 2-1 win for Wolfsburg. Malli is +650 to score first, and Dost is +450, and they are both shrewd bets, while Ricardo Rodriguez is an interesting outsider at +1200. Rodriguez takes penalties if Dost is off the field and has a keen eye for goal. You can also get +130 at Betfair for Dost to score at any time. 

Free Soccer Pick: Wolfsburg +115

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