Liverpool Set For A Win In Europa League Final

Jim Makos

Wednesday, May 18, 2016 1:21 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 18, 2016 1:21 PM UTC

Will the Europa League Cup end up to English or Spanish hands? We analyze the soccer odds charts before the Final and discuss betting trends.

All eyes will be on Europa League’s Final tonight as Sevilla and Liverpool will battle neck and neck. However, betting soccer odds already show the Englishmen as favorites in tonight’s clash. What’s more, handicappers seem to not be favorite-longshot biased and actually, are backing the favorite! Will the outcome prove them correct?


Europa League Winner Market
We start off with a look at the betting odds charts in the Winner market as we’ve done in the past. These long-term betting markets offer great insight of dynamics and preferences for sports bettors, who put money where their mouth is. 
Mind you, the lines presented in the charts are not drawn due to team stats or form status. Actual wagering is creating the charts in a similar manner with stock charts, which according to popular belief contain every news detail.
We’ve reversed the odds charts though, so that we examine the probability charts that offer a better picture to work with.


Sevilla’s climb was the reason I strongly believed tonight’s contenders would both come from Spain. Although that prediction was proven wrong for Villarreal, Sevilla is in fact into the final and their chance improved since the last time. Yet, recently the positive trend seems to have lost momentum, as their chance declined from 50% to 42% at this time of writing.
Meanwhile, Liverpool’s soccer odds are dropping, leading to their probability chart to show a strong uptrend. Their chance skyrocketed from 25% to 55% following the win against Villarreal and continues to do so, almost touching 60%.
In my last post, I mentioned that “I doubt their probability would increase past 40%, as they will still need to score again to knock out the Spaniards”. Indeed, their chance hit 35% upon scoring first. Isn’t it nice to tell the future by looking at a chart?
It’s not hard to draw the big picture here: Punters are showing a preference in favor of the Englishmen in the Europa League Winner market. Hold onto this conclusion as we will now analyze the timely charts of tonight’s game.


Liverpool vs Sevilla Match Odds Charts
Not surprised to witness an odds decline in match odds, as well. The sentiment dominating the Winner market is apparent herein, as gamblers consider betting on the game’s favorite.


It’s obvious that punters consider Liverpool’s odds to offer some value, hence the odds’ decline we see. They began betting on 2.50 (+150), didn’t stop when they shortened to 2.40 (+140) and odds are now trading close to 2.30 (+130) at betting exchanges.
In the meantime, Sevilla’s odds are on the rise of course. Looking at the chart and given my decade-old experience of chart analysis, I suppose a breakout is imminent. If that happens, Sevilla’s odds can easily drift to 3.75 (+275) or higher (+300 maybe?) as the momentum will build up and Liverpool’s enthusiastic backers will pour more money onto the English team, driving their odds lower.
This kind of price action is a bit rare for games like this. Usually there is minimal odds action, since the market has had plenty of time to find its balance and price in every little detail of the game. For tonight’s game though, that’s surely not the case.
Other sportsbooks have also shortened Liverpool’s odds. Here’s the chart for Bet365 and William Hill offerings on Liverpool.


Hence, trend-following bettors should take a stab on Liverpool winning the trophy on Wednesday night. Besides, most tipsters have included them in their soccer picks. If, on the other hand, you prefer their rivals’ long odds, note that you are betting against the crowd. Often, it’s recommended to stand out from it. I just don’t think this is a good example!

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