Liverpool To Defeat Defending Champs Sevilla In Europa League Final

Nikki Adams

Friday, May 13, 2016 6:05 PM UTC

Friday, May. 13, 2016 6:05 PM UTC

Liverpool take on two-time defending champions Sevilla in the Europa League final. Find out what soccer odds are trading and where the value soccer picks are to be had.

Sevilla Bid For Third Straight Title
Sevilla are through to a third straight Europa League final, what is going to be a decisive game for the Spanish side’s European future. Following a disappointing domestic campaign, in which Sevilla got off to a slow start before clawing back up to seventh in the table and without hope of finishing higher with just one game left on the season, Sevilla are slated to miss European action if they fail to beat Liverpool. That amounts to added pressure for the titleholders, over and above those placed by simple competitive expectations.

Los Rojiblancos’ run through European competition this season has been a mixed bag, symptomatic of their up-and-down season. After going 2-0-4 in Champions League group play – with a group that contained Juventus, Man City and Borussia M’gladbach – Sevilla finished third and earned a spot in the Europa League R32. They capitalised on the second chance at European glory with a knockout phase run that saw them win five, draw two and lose just one fixture. The lone loss came to Molde in the R32 away leg after winning the home leg 3-0. Indeed, away performances have been a struggle with just one win, two draws and a loss.

Still, Unai Emery’s side negotiated a spot in the final, taking advantage of the forgiving nature of the two-legged knockout phase and, arguably, an easier draw than Jurgen Klopp’s Red. Sevilla faced off against Molde, Basel, Athletic Club and Shakhtar Donetsk.


Liverpool Favoured To Win
Jurgen Klopp’s appointment at Liverpool is perhaps the most inspired appointment the club has had since Rafa Benitez’s heyday. Already in a short span of time the German has made an impact on the club, although more so in Europe than in Premier League. Liverpool are sat eighth in the table with European action a distant hope in the future, unless they triumph in the UEFA Europa final over Sevilla and earn a spot in next season’s top-flight club competition, the UEFA Champions League.

A lot is at stake therefore in this final for Liverpool, who began this competition in the group stage and navigated a course to the final, often against the odds. It wasn’t easy from the start and particularly in the latter stages as they faced tough opponents in Manchester United, Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal. At one point, Liverpool looked to be on the way out – down two goals to Borussia Dortmund in the second leg of their quarterfinal they had to score three to resurrect their title hopes. And boy did they, on one of the most extraordinary nights at Anfield this side of the century.


Europa League Outrights and Match Betting Odds
Given Sevilla’s experience in the competition behind two consecutive titles one would think it would equate to an advantage in the market. Alas, it doesn’t. Emery’s side enter the final in Basel as the distinct underdogs in both outrights and match betting markets. They are priced as the +120 soccer pick to triumph for a third straight season in outrights and as far flung as the +225 soccer pick to win in 90 minutes.

Liverpool emerge as the favourites priced at -133 to win the final in outrights. Things are a bit more tight in match betting markets where the Reds are priced as the tempting +150 to win in 90 minutes soccer bet or thereabouts depening on your choice sportsbook, but they are still favoured over Sevilla in principle. The draw, meanwhile, is trading as high as +240 soccer odds at various sports betting outlets.

Consensus betting polls reveal the public is falling in line with the aforementioned market outlook. Liverpool has acquired 60.62% of the match betting market while Sevilla have only 29.20% of the market and the draw comes up with 10.18% of the market share (see Chart 1).

Chart 1: Europa League Final Match Betting

Looking at Outright betting polls the edge Liverpool appears to have over Sevilla is even more pronounced. As it is, Liverpool have 78.17% of the market share while the two-time defending champions only emerge with a paltry 21.83% of the market. (See Chart 2).


Chart 2: Europa League Final Outright Betting


Europa League Final Tips and Predictions
Evidently, the market and public are in harmony where this European final is concerned. The majority of the money coming down the wire is going towards Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool. To be fair, they do seem to be the value soccer pick as well. Liverpool proved they can beat any opponent in this competition, never more so when they came from behind to upset competition favourites Borussia Dortmund. On the flipside, Sevilla do appear to be there for the taking given their overall output this season across all competitions. However, they bring a winning mentality to this final and stand to make history with a third straight title.

A lot is at stake in this final and neither side can take anything for granted. Sevilla are worthy opponents and could very well defy the soccer odds. For our money, we can’t help but buy what Liverpool are selling on our soccer picks and, as such, we’re recommending a bet on Liverpool to win at +150 with Bet365 in match betting markets.

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Free Soccer Pick: Liverpool to win at +150
Best Line Offered: at William Hill

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