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Liberty vs. Sun WNBA Picks: New York Puts Up a Fight

Liberty vs. Sun WNBA Picks: New York Puts Up a Fight
Natasha Howard of the New York Liberty looks to pass during the second half against the Minnesota Lynx. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images via AFP.

A double-digit point spread in favor of the Connecticut Sun seems a bit hefty given the New York Liberty’s improved play of late. We offer up our top WNBA picks for Wednesday’s Liberty-Sun picks.

Although the Liberty (8-8 ATS, 7-9 O/U) come into this matchup off a loss, they have been showing tremendous improvement recently. New York has won five of its last eight games after starting the year off 1-7. Furthermore, the Liberty have been competitive against some of the top teams in the league even in defeat.

As for the Sun (9-8 ATS, 9-7-1 O/U), they too will be looking to bounce back from a loss. Connecticut’s loss to the Washington Mystics on Sunday carried the added sting of eliminating them from contention for the Commissioner’s Cup Final. Despite that setback, the Sun still sit atop the Eastern Conference standings.

Here are my WNBA picks and predictions for Wednesday’s game between the Liberty and Sun (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Liberty vs. Sun Game Info

Date: Wednesday, June 22, 7 p.m. ET
Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT

Liberty vs. Sun Odds

Liberty vs. Sun Odds Analysis

The opening point spread for Wednesday night’s contest favored the Sun by `10. Needless to say, the line reflects the stark difference in power rating between these two teams. At the time of writing, the vast majority of sportsbooks continue to list Sun -10. Only one shop has adjusted to -9.5 thus far.

The total for this game has also seen limited movement after opening at 162. Updated consensus odds list the Over/Under at 162.5. Some books have bumped the number up further to 163. 

Looking at the ticket counts for this matchup, Connecticut has been the preferred side for the majority of bettors. Presently, 65% of all ATS tickets are on the home favorite; however, 82% of the cash is on New York. The Over has been the popular play regarding the total, garnering 83% of all bets placed.

Liberty vs. Sun Picks

  • Side: Liberty +10.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ★★★
  • Total: Under 163 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★
  • Game prop: Sun team total: Under 87.5 (-130 via BetMGM) ★★★★

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Liberty vs. Sun Predictions

Liberty +10.5 (-115)

Since the calendar turned to June, the Liberty have looked like a completely different team compared to how they began the season. Not only has New York won five of eight games played this month, but all three of its losses were by nine or fewer points. 

From a talent standpoint, the Liberty will be at a disadvantage against the first-place Sun. However, New York’s top duo of Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard are playing top-notch basketball of late. 

If the Liberty can get complementary scoring efforts from players like Marine Johannes and Sami Whitcomb like they did on Sunday against the Seattle Storm, they are more than capable of keeping this contest competitive. 

With much of the market listing this spread at Sun -10, bettors are able to obtain a half-point of value through BetMGM.

Under 163 (-110)

Bettors have a couple of previous data points to refer to when handicapping this game as this will be the third head-to-head meeting between the Liberty and Sun this season. Considering that the first two matchups saw 160 and 157 total points scored, respectively, going against the grain of the market and betting the Under makes sense for Wednesday’s matchup.

When it comes to average pace, the Sun rank right around league average. Meanwhile, the Liberty average the second-slowest tempo in the WNBA.

The Sun tend to play at a pace preferable to their opponents. Thus, despite the fact that Connecticut ranks second in both offensive rating and scoring offense, the Sun can become involved in their fair share of low-scoring affairs. Case in point, none of their four total matchups against the Liberty and Mystics this season surpassed 160 total points. 

Given how New York has been improving defensively of late, it’s worth betting on that trend to continue on Wednesday.

Sun team total: Under 87.5 (-130)

Playing the Sun team total Under harkens back to one of the key points from above. The fact that Connecticut tends to match the pace of its opponent suggests that Wednesday’s game will feature a slower tempo and fewer possessions both ways.

Although the Sun scored 92 points in their second meeting with New York this season, the fact that the game was a 27-point blowout makes some of the numbers misleading. With how competitive the Liberty have been of late, this game is bound to be more competitive. 

In addition, BetMGM’s team total for Connecticut sits one full point higher than those at other shops in the market.

Where to Bet on Liberty-Sun Picks

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Liberty vs Sun picks made on 6/22/2022 at 1:43 p.m. ET.