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Forward Michaela Onyenwere #12, guard Sabrina Ionescu #20, and center Han Xu #21 of the New York Liberty look on during the first half against the Minnesota Lynx at Barclays Center on June 07, 2022 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images via AFP.

With the point spread for Wednesday’s WNBA Playoffs opener ballooning to double-digits, is it time to buy back on the underdog Liberty?  Find out with our Liberty-Sky Game 1 picks.

The 2022 WNBA Playoffs begin in earnest on Wednesday. The opening matchup to kick off the postseason pits the 7-seed New York Liberty against the 2-seed Chicago Sky.

In many ways, the fact that the Liberty (18-17-1 ATS, 17-19 O/U) even are in the playoffs is remarkable. After all, this is the same team that started out the season by going 1-7 in the month of May. New York won each of its final three regular-season games including a home-and-home sweep of Atlanta to secure a playoff spot.

Meanwhile, the Sky (17-18-1 ATS, 19-16 O/U) are set to begin their WNBA Championship defense at home in the First Round. Chicago clinched its spot in the postseason a number of weeks ago. However, a rough stretch to end the regular season saw the Sky lose out on the No. 1 overall seed. 

Here are my picks and predictions for Wednesday night’s playoff game between the Liberty and Sky (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook).

Liberty vs. Sky Game Info

Date/Time: Wednesday, August 17, 8 p.m. ET
Coverage: ESPN2
Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, IL

Liberty vs. Sky Odds Analysis

The market certainly has not been shy about laying points with the favored Sky. The point spread for Wednesday’s Game 1 first opened up with the Sky as 7.5-point favorites. Heavy action on the home favorite has caused the line to jump up to a current market consensus of Chicago -10.

Based on the ticket counts and handle percentages at DraftKings, it’s apparent that many bettors are still willing to back the defending champs even at a double-digit spread. Presently, 60% of all ATS tickets are on the Sky. Chicago has also attracted 70% of all handle wagered on the spread.

The total for Wednesday’s series opener has also been adjusted. Oddsmakers opened the game with an Over/Under of 165.5. Betting action quickly caused the line to move to 166 with additional action shifting it up yet another half-point to 166.5.'

Liberty vs. Sky Picks

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Liberty vs. Sky Predictions

Liberty +10 (-110)

The fact that the Liberty won only one of eight games played in the month of May is a pretty clear indicator of where the team was at that point in the season. Head coach Sandy Brondello deserves full marks for keeping the team together and working towards a more positive season outcome. 

As far as this Game 1 matchup, it’s interesting to note that New York went 2-0-1 ATS against Chicago in three regular-season meetings after the month of May. Making this ATS record all the more noteworthy is the fact that the closing point spread for all three games was less than the current line of the Sky as 10-point favorites. This includes the July 29 meeting between the teams in Chicago for which the Sky closed as an eight-point favorite.

There’s no denying that the defending champion Sky are the deeper and more talented team. However, Chicago faltered down the stretch of the regular season and ultimately coughed up the chance to be the top seed in the playoffs. Thus, momentum arguably favors the Liberty as they had to win six of their final eight games just to make it.

The injury report is empty for both teams coming into the playoffs. For the Liberty, that is huge news, particularly with regard to Betnijah Laney. She returned from an extended injury absence late on Aug. 6 and played well. 

While it would likely require an A+ performance from each of Laney, Sabrina Ionescu, and Natasha Howard to upset the Sky outright, covering a double-digit point spread is much more achievable.

Under 166.5 (-110)

There are multiple reasons to consider going against the line move toward the Over. One primary factor to consider is the Liberty's inability to consistently produce at the offensive end. 

New York was one of only four teams to average fewer than 80 points per game during the regular season. In theory, being matched up against a stout Chicago defense won't help matters. Although the Sky faltered at that end of the floor late in the year, that should change with the playoffs starting.

Another interesting aspect of this total is that the line is higher than the closing total for three of four regular-season meetings between these teams. The playoffs are a different animal in terms of defensive intensity compared to the regular season. To further this point, the Liberty will have plenty of incentive to turn this game into a slow-paced, defensive grind. It’s probably the only way they have a shot at scoring an outright upset. 

Much like the point spread that is greater than any closing line for the four regular season matchups between the Liberty and Sky, there’s a tremendous argument to be made that the total has also gotten carried away.

Liberty team total Over 77.5 (-120)

This team total of 77.5 at Caesars sits a full point lower than what other major sportsbooks in the market are offering. Although it may seem somewhat contradictory to play the Over on a team total after rationalizing the Under on the game total, there is a chance that both bets ultimately cash.

New York was hardly an offensive juggernaut this season. However, with Laney returning to the lineup, the Liberty now have their top three offensive players fully healthy. Thus, they are more capable of hitting their season scoring average of 79.6 points per game now more than ever. Note, too, that this offensive average is two full points higher than the WNBA betting prop total.

The improvements that Marine Johannes has made at the offensive end this season also cannot be ignored. She played a huge role in the team’s playoff-clinching win on the final day of the regular season with 18 points in 24 minutes. If she can continue to serve as a reliable fourth scoring option in the playoffs, the Liberty are fully capable of exceeding offensive expectations.

Where to Bet on Liberty-Sky Game 1 Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picksodds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Liberty-Sky Game 1 picks made 8/17/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.