Lay Money on the Reds for Saturday's Liverpool vs. QPR EPL Soccer Pick

Nikki Adams

Friday, May 1, 2015 4:07 PM GMT

Friday, May. 1, 2015 4:07 PM GMT

QPR's quest for points faces a tough customer on Saturday. Can QPR defy the soccer odds at the expense of Liverpool as they fight for Premier League survival? Here's our soccer pick.

QPR Desperately Seeking Points
Queens Park Rangers head to Anfield Stadium on Saturday, marking one of several 3pm kickoffs around the Premier League in week 35. To say they'll be hard pressed to get any kind of positive result is an understatement. They are trading as the quintessential long shot soccer pick at +900 to win outright and at +425 soccer odds to force the draw on the Reds, which is a rather grim stance on the Premier League odds board  that doesn't bode well towards their fight for survival in England's top flight.

QPR have had a rough go of it in England's top flight, particularly on the road where they've struggled to get into the win column. As it is, they've only clinched two road wins and a draw in 16 outings. That's second worst in the league; only Burnley have a worse record with a 1-5-10 mark.

Not surprisingly, QPR are mired in the relegation battle. They are 19th in the table behind a 7-6-21 mark and 27 points, with most of their points coming on home turf obviously (5-5-8). They  are four points adrift of Leicester City in 17th place and the promise of Premier League football next season.

QPR are after a two-game undefeated streak on the road ahead of week 35 EPL betting – a 4-1 win over West Bromwich Albion and a 3-3 draw with Aston Villa. Against any team in the bottom-half of the table, such form might lend some optimism. Against Liverpool, however, the Rangers have to share in the realism of their chances with odds makers. That is, slim to none.

 

Liverpool Battle For European Spots
Liverpool's recent dip in form is a cause for concern and belies the favourable soccer betting outlook to win outright at -275 soccer odds. Indeed, they are down to fifth in the table, level on points with Tottenham and just a point ahead of Southampton, all while the race for European spots heats up with just four games left on the season. To put a finer point on it, Brendan Rodgers can't afford to have his lads lose focus in an easy home game that is a must-win in more ways than one.

The Reds are winless in their last three games, which includes a 2-1 loss to Aston Villa in FA Cup, a scoreless draw to West Brom and a 1-0 loss to Hull City. However, all three games were on the road. The demands of travel and the pressure that  comes with playing in hostile stadiums affects even the best of teams. It's reasonable to assume those missed opportunities might not affect their home date with QPR.

Certainly, odds makers aren't putting a lot of stock in those. Sending Liverpool into this clash as the firm favourites at -275 to win outright. Underscoring their soccer odds is a 17-7-10 mark and 58 points, which includes a 9-5-3 mark at home. What's more, they boast a 6-1-1 record at home in their last eight home games across all competitions.  

By all accounts, this game is for Liverpool to take. Earlier this season, the Reds beat the Rangers 3-2 on the road.

 

Soccer Betting Verdict:
On one hand, it's hard to ignore Liverpool's dip in form, which thrusts their hefty price tag into question. There's a touch of overzealousness about it. On the other hand, it would be an error in judgement to downplay QPR's desperation for points, which makes them dangerous opponents despite their hefty +900 soccer odds.

Nevertheless, one has to appreciate the fact that the Reds are simply the better team and, as such, they warrant their inflated soccer odds. By that same token, they are also the smart soccer pick to win outright at -275. Although if you're looking to bet on this game, better value is to be had in Halftime-Fulltime betting markets, where the Reds are priced at -110 to win both halves or on the Asian Handicap at -1.5 for 2.100. Either of those could be better options for your soccer picks.. Finally, the Over 2.5 is an attractive soccer pick at -167 at Bet365.

Soccer Free Picks: Liverpool -275 at Bet365

Bonus Soccer Picks: Liverpool to win both halves at -110 and Over 2.5 at -167 soccer odds

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