La Liga Tips & Predictions: Valladolid vs. Atletico Madrid

Mike Richardson

Friday, February 15, 2013 8:24 PM UTC

Friday, Feb. 15, 2013 8:24 PM UTC

Valladolid host Atlético Madrid and, while it may not look like a classic encounter on paper, winning (paper) money in this match is just a click away.

The winner of the Spanish league looks to be all tied up and up in the name of Barcelona. However, Atlético Madrid will be pretty chuffed with their performance thus far this season. After 23 games they are sitting pretty comfy in the silver medal position on 50 points while reigning champions Real Madrid languish four points behind. Atlético Madrid may be 66/1 to win La Liga, slightly worse than the odds are on Real Madrid (who are as low as 40/1). But when the bookies are offering odds as ridiculous as 1/200 on Barcelona winning La Liga everywho else is just along for the ride.

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Enough with the league winning odds…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?

Second place Atlético Madrid are a full 20 points better off than 10th place Valladolid which explains exactly why the sports books have an away win at 20/19, while a home victory is at 11/4. If you want to bet on a clear winner in this match you have to bet on Atlético Madrid. If you fancy getting on Valladolid to win this game I'll have a pint of whatever you've been smoking.

Atlético Madrid winning both halves is similarly at not very interesting soccer odds of 9/4. If you think that the likely won’t happen, why not go crazy and bet on Valladolid winning both halves which is offered up at 6/1.

Just to give you a bit more sense of the gulf between the two sides while Atlético Madrid are the bookies favourites in La Liga, if you take out Barcelona and Real Madrid Valladolid are 28/1 to finish top six.

Gimme fives. Atlético Madrid lost in their last league game they have got two victories two defeats and a draw in their last five. Valladolid have two draws, one defeat and two victories in their last five. More interesting is the fact that Valladolid have two draws back to back in their most recent games, but I can't see them drawing three games on the trot even at 12/5.

In their last five Valladolid have scored eight goals and conceded just five. That might suggest they will win this game 2-1 but that score is offered up at 12/1 with Ladbrokes. That's less tempting odds than the game ending drawn 0-0, which is offered up at 10/1 and I just don't believe that this game will not see any goals. 

Looking at the direct comparison head-to-head stats between the two sides Atlético Madrid fans will be thrilled by the fact that they have won the last three games straight. What's more the away side has outscored the home side 9 –2 in the last three games which might just suggest a score of 3-1 or 3-0, both scores certainly worth a punt at 16/1. 

The biggest scoring game between the sides in recent memory was back in January 2010 when Atlético Madrid travelled to this venue, the last time they played here in fact and took Valladolid apart 4-0, that score is offered up at 50/1 with Paddy Power. It certainly doesn't look like we’ll see that much of a rout, but I do think the table positions, tells you all you need know in this game.

Atlético Madrid have only won four times on the road this season drawing two and losing five, scoring 11 goals and conceding 17 on their travels but Valladolid have five victories for draws and three defeats at home this season.

The home side have scored 23 times at home this term but have conceded 15. This would suggest the draw mentioned above, but I can't bring myself to bet heavily on that, it may be close, but not that close.

Prediction: 2-1 to Atlético Madrid available at 8/1 with William Hill. 

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