La Liga Soccer Picks: Real Valladolid vs. Real Madrid

Mike Richardson

Tuesday, May 6, 2014 6:51 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 6, 2014 6:51 PM UTC

It’s gambling time again, and this pick sees your Humble Handicapper heading to Spain to tidy up some more cash with La Liga. Wednesday night sees Real Valladolid host Real Madrid in a game that screams "WIN MONEY ON ME!!!!"

First things first, let's look at Spain’s La Liga table. At the top sit Atlético Madrid (the team that banished Chelsea from the Champions League) on 88 points, and right behind them are Barcelona with 85points. Just behind them, after a draw at the weekend, sit Real Madrid on 83 points. You might wonder what that means for the La Liga winner odds, and your Humble Handicapper can tell you that Atlético Madrid are favourites at 10/11, while Real Madrid are 23/10 second bests and Barcelona are 7/2 bronze medal favourites.

Valladolid by comparison are second last in the table with 35 points, well clear of bottom club Real Betis who have 22 points and are already relegated. The bookies have Valladolid at 4/6 (third favourites) to go down with them, alongside Osasuna and Almeria (1/2 and 4/6 respectively).


Enough with the league winners and relegation fodder…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?
It’s worth considering the relegation / winning odds when you consider what each side is playing for, but the bookies think this one is a done deal. Real Madrid are wild favourites at 1/5, the draw is an unlikely 6/1.


Better return
Back Real Madrid to open the scoring at ¼. Those are not great odds, but a "safe-as-houses" bet. That tells you pretty much everything that you need to know in order to place valuable soccer picks. If you’re wondering why the odds are the way the odds are, I can tell you that Real Madrid have scored 100 goals this season, more than any other side! They have conceded 34, a little under one per game, but noticeably more than Atlético Madrid (who have conceded 24).

Looking at the last five meetings between these two sides shows a very clear pattern: Real Madrid win – every time.  It’s five out of the last five for Madrid, but they have only kept one clean sheet in that run.

Therefore you might well be tempted by both sides to score at 10/11, but I prefer No at 4/5. While it's very true that Madrid have only kept one clean sheet against Valladolid in their last five meetings, they have kept three clean sheets in their last four games. Therefore your Humble Handicapper is backing Madrid to win to nil at best soccer odds of 11/8. If you fancy a laugh you can back Valladolid to win to nil at best odds of 30/1, but why would you waste your money on that?

Madrid have outscored Valladolid 19 goals to 8 in their last five meetings, which works out at roughly 4-2, something offered up at best soccer odds of 33/1. As your Humble Handicapper has already stated, Real will keep a clean sheet, so do not bet too heavily on that score.

Madrid have scored four goals against Valladolid in four of their last five meetings, but when you look at their winning margin, it’s a lot closer: a one-goal winning margin twice, a two-goal, and a three-goal winning margin, once each. The bookies seem to think it’ll be a heavy victory with Real Madrid winning by three or more goals at 11/8, but you might like to go a little wild, and back four or more goals at 7/2. Your Humble Handicapper thinks it’ll be a bit closer though.

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Free Soccer Pick: Real Madrid win 3-0 available at best soccer odds of 9/1 with BetVictor.

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