La Liga Soccer Odds: League Leaders Barcelona Won’t Take Valencia's Visit Lightly

Lee Phelps

Friday, April 17, 2015 1:10 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 17, 2015 1:10 PM UTC

Barcelona's form is imperious at the moment, with their UCL win adding to their league exploits. William Hilll's Lee Phelps has spotted a nice stat and matching odds for his free soccer pick.

Barcelona go into their latest La Liga match in an even more buoyant mood than when they left for Paris, with that emphatic 3-1 win over Paris Saint Germain all-but booking their place in the Champions League semi-finals.

Valencia are one point off Atletico Madrid and automatic Champions League qualification, with an unbeaten run stretching back 10 games now.

La Liga odds board placed host Barcelona -450 favorites with Valencia +1100 underdogs and the Draw priced at +600 at Bet365

Barcelona have only lost one of their last 15 league games against Valencia (W10 D4) but it took place at the Camp Nou last season (2-3). Barca’s home record isn’t perfect of course this season having lost two of the 15 league games played at the Camp Nou winning 13. The defeats coincided with a blank in front of goal to Celta and Málaga. It was that win by Valencia last season that ended a run of 31 home games without a loss, and consisted of 30 wins a draw, which is why soccer odds opened the draw at such an atractive price. 

The lack of goals for Lionel Messi in France in midweek, only means he is more likely to score in the weekend game and the omens are good for him. He has scored more hat-tricks against Valencia than any other side. Hit hat-trick of hat-tricks against them also mean Diego Alves is the goalkeeper he has beaten most in the top flight of Spanish football, bagging 15 against the stopper.


Only once in their history have Valencia recorded 65 or more points after 31 games played in La Liga; it was in the title-winning season of 2003/04. Incidentally before Atletico’s title win, they were the last team to break the Real Madrid Barcelona domination.

They are unbeaten in five away games in the league and haven’t managed six in a row since March 2011. During this excellent run, only two of Valencia’s last 10 goals away from home have come in the first half.

It wouldn’t be a big surprise to me to see them starting in a solid fashion with an eye on frustrating Barca. Valencia have the second best away defence in the division, with just 15 goals conceded.


Soccer picks
I’m looking at a tight start and the draw at 30 minutes at 2.0 (Evens). Five of Barcelona’s games following Champions League exertions have been level at the half hour mark. I’m also really tempted by the second half to be the highest scoring 2.0 (Evs). That would have landed in 12 of Barca’s 15 home games and in seven of Valencia’s last 10 away.

One other soccer pick I like given his record against them, is Messi to score a fourth hat-trick against this opposition at 11.0 (10/1)

Free Soccer Pick: Second half to be the highest scoring. 2.0 (Evs)

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