La Liga Betting: Sevilla vs. Real Madrid

Mike Richardson

Tuesday, March 25, 2014 6:19 PM GMT

El Clásico lived up to its name on Sunday, and your Humble Handicapper made a tidy profit from that match, however, that’s not enough. He goes back to La Liga to win some more when Real Madrid take on Sevilla.

Next up for Real Madrid is Sevilla
This is as good a time as any to let you know that the best soccer odds on Real winning La Liga this term are 5/6. Sevilla were 26 points behind them before El Clásico kicked off and are on no bookie’s radar for winning the league this term. They’re 7th place in the table which means they are fireproof in terms of relegation.

So if you’re not going to win money on Sevilla winning the league or being relegated…WHERE’S THEMONEY MIKE?

Let’s get the basics out of the way. Real winning this game is at best soccer odds of 4/7, a draw is at 10/3 and a Sevilla win is at 9/2.

The bookies also have Real winning both halves at 11/8 and Sevilla winning both halves is at 10/1.

Irrespective of all that Real Madrid have beaten Sevilla four times out of their last five meetings and have outscored them a whopping 20 goals to 7. That would sort of average out to Real Madrid winning at 3-1 which is available at best soccer odds of 11/1.

However, if you put Sevilla’s 1-0 victory (their only recent victory over Madrid) down to a fluke it comes out at 20 goals to 6 (little difference) but if you just factor in Real Madrid’s home victories over Sevilla you’d see the goals for/against were more like 14-4 (and average out about 3-1 again).

However, Sevilla are playing at home in this match and as they have managed to find the back of the net against Real Madrid four times out of the last five and three times in their last two home matches against Real, I'd suggest you DON’T back Real Madrid to win to nil, even at best soccer odds of 12/5.

Discounting their El Clásico match last weekend, Real Madrid have outscored their opposition 15-5, that would average out at 3-1 (that score again)!

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Mixed messages!
Sevilla have won four of their last five games BUT that one defeat was at home. Sevilla have failed to keep a clean sheet in all but two of their last five games, however their last clean sheet was in their most recent game.

Sevilla have won their last two home games 4-1 against Valladolid (that score is available at best soccer odds of 150/1) and 1-0 over Real Sociedad (at 25/1). But they won’t beat Real.

The bookies have the shortest correct score odds on a Sevilla victory at 2-1 for 18/1. That tells you all you need to know about who’s going to win this one.

Prediction: Real Madrid win 3-1 available at best soccer odds of 10/1 with Paddy Power.