La Liga Betting: Malaga vs. Real Madrid

Nila Amerova

Thursday, March 13, 2014 2:51 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 13, 2014 2:51 PM UTC

Malaga welcome league leaders Real Madrid in week 28 La Liga betting with the soccer odds stacked heavily against the hosts across sportsbooks. So where are the value soccer picks in a matchup that to all intents and purposes is a foregone conclusion. Let’s find out.

Malaga massive underdogs

Malaga enter their clash with Real Madrid at the severe disadvantage. To put it bluntly, they would appear to be a no-hope bet at +1100 soccer odds to win outright.

A top six side in the last two seasons and one of the best Champions League newcomers in history by reaching the quarterfinals last year, Malaga’s decline this season is a story rife with strife, disappointment, departures and financial woes.

Sat in 13th place on the back of a 7-8-12 mark and 29 points, the good news for Los Bosquerones (The Anchovies) is that they are still in play for a spot in Spain’s first division. But with only a three-point cushion separating them from the drop they haven’t secured that appointment for next season just yet. Bad news they mightn’t even as evinced by their +900 future odds to be relegated by season end. 

Given this predicament and the advanced stage of the La Liga season (just over a dozen matches left on the schedule), Los Bosquerones must collect as many points as possible down the stretch if they hope to maintain their top-flight provenance. And in recent weeks the prognosis has been somewhat encouraging with two draws and a win; the latter of which a 2-0 win over Osasuna on their last outing. But with a date with Real Madrid slated for week 28 La Liga betting that mini run of good form is as sure to end as the sun is to rise in the morning.

One has to feel for Malaga’s plight in this clash. League leaders Real Madrid are enjoying sublime form, which includes an incredible run of 30 games undefeated (25 wins and 5 draws) across all competitions. Their last defeat was a 2-1 defeat to Barcelona in October. Making the reading worse for Malaga is the fact that 20 matches resulted in clean sheets. In their last eight matches, five were clean sheets and six saw Real Madrid score three or more goals.

Real Madrid boast a 21-4-2 mark this season, which includes a 9-4-1 mark on the road. They’ve scored 76 goals, 34 of which were on the road, and conceded just 26 through 27 laps. There are more stats and accomplishments and standout performances that can be trotted out but let’s not wax lyrical about Real Madrid just for the sake of it. Suffice it to say that as far as this matchup goes, Malaga are clearly outclassed and outmatched. Hence, Real Madrid’s fancied -400 soccer odds to win outright or thereabouts depending on your choice sportsbook.

Malaga vs. Real Madrid Betting Tips and Picks: Undoubtedly, betting on the winner of this match is straightforward: Real Madrid at -400 soccer odds is the only soccer pick that can be reasonably considered. An upset by Malaga is the quintessential long shot bet, a Hail Mary fancy that occupies little (if any) space in soccer-betting circles. But backing Real Madrid isn’t the value soccer pick. For that one must look at other markets such as the totals and double result, to name a few.

Here are a few select choices: the Over 2.5 is a good place to start at -225 at Bet365 but given the gap in depth and quality between these two outfits it’s quite reasonable to expect the totals to go even higher. So for better value, soccer bettors can turn to the Over 3.5 at William Hill, which is matched at +115. Real Madrid to win both halves is matched at -150 at Bet365 while a no bet on Malaga to score is listed at +100 at William Hill and, at the same time, Real Madrid to score only is matched at +100 as well.

Soccer Free Picks: Real Madrid to win outright; Over 3.5 at +115

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