LA Galaxy vs. New England Revolution: MLS Odds, Preview, Prediction and Soccer Picks

Kevin Stott

Thursday, May 28, 2015 1:06 AM GMT

Thursday, May. 28, 2015 1:06 AM GMT

The New England Revolution are really playing some pretty good soccer this season, but with Robbie Keane back and GK Jaime Penedo, the visiting LA Galaxy should prove to be quite the challenge and finding a soccer pick here will take some critical thinking.

Odds Overview

LA Galaxy at New England Patriots, [Monday 00:00] (Fox Sports 1, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports GO, TSN, MLS Live (USA); 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT): This inter-conference meeting between the Western Conference’s LA Galaxy (4-5-4, 12 GF-15 GA heading into Week 13) and the Eastern Conference’s New England Revolution (5-5-3, 18 GF-16 GA) at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts on Sunday evening should prove to be a good test for the visiting Galaxy who are winless on the Road so far this season. Soccer odds makers have made the host Revolution +120 favorites here with the LA Galaxy healthy +210 underdogs with the Draw priced at +225 (Sky Bet). The Total Goals in this game has been set at 2½ Under -150 (Over +110, Ladbrokes) so you can see that this is expected to be a low-scoring affair despite the fact the series has seen a very strong trend toward Overs the last couple of seasons.

Some Prop wagers for this weekend fixture from the Plymouth Rock: Draw No Bet: Revolution -200, Galaxy +150 (Paddy Power); Correct Score: 0-0 +750, 1-1 +550, 2-2 +1300, Revolution 1-0 +650 (Paddy Power); and, Both Teams To Score: Yes -117, No -111 (Ladbrokes).

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LA Galaxy
The LA Galaxy (0-3-4 Away, 4 GF-12 GA) and long-time legendary Head Coach Bruce Arena began Week 13 play in MLS in 7th place in the Western Conference largely because of the team’s poor and winless Road record. In the Galaxy’s Week 12 on Friday night at Home at the StubHub Center in Carson, California, the hosts somehow miraculously escaped with the win and the 3 points when Alan Gordon (4 goals) scored on a header in Stoppage Time for the game’s lone goal and a 1-0 win against the Houston Dynamo, ending a 5-game winless streak. With the LA Galaxy—whose Week 13 game at Real Salt Lake was profiled here at Sportsbook Review on Tuesday—usually a stronger team than they have been to start this season, it’s important to remember that team legend Landon Donovan has retired; Irish striker Robbie Keane (2 goals) has just returned from a groin injury; and, that this team won’t remain unbeaten at Home and winless on the Road and should be in the postseason race although the league (and the conference) has somewhat caught up with the Galaxy (+500 to win MLS Cup, BetVictor) in recent years, with some new teams like Sporting Kansas City, the Seattle Sounders and DC United looking like clubs who may be good ones for the next several years.

One big thing Galaxy fans can look forward to this Summer is when recent Liverpool-retiree Steven Gerrard heads to Lalaland to join the club as a Designated Player in July. With Arena at the helm, UK legends Gerrard and Keane, and players like Jose Villarreal (1 goal)—who returned to the Galaxy starting lineup against the Dynamo after healing from a hamstring injury—and 33-year-old Panamanian goalkeeper Jaime Penedo, this team should be improved in the next couple of months, but the Galaxy need to start winning on the Road. And that will be quite the undertaking here at Foxboro and Gillette Stadium, the home of the NFL’s Super Bowl champion New England Patriots. So, the stadium itself isn’t really used to losing.

 

New England Revolution
The New England Revolution (3-4-0 at Home, 10 GF-4 GA) began Week 13 play in 2nd place in the Eastern Conference, 2 points off leaders DC United (6-4-2, 22 points), so, you can this team is unbeaten at Home and GK Bobby Shuttleworth has allowed only 4 goals in 7 games at Gillette Stadium, good news for potential New England and/or Under backers. The Revolution (+700 to win MLS Cup, bet365) are coached by Jay Heaps and led offensively by striker Charlie Davies (5 goals), striker Juan Agudelo (4 goals), midfielders Kelyn Rowe (3 goals) and Teal Bunbury (2 goals)—who was voted Weirdest Name in the MLS by a small band of ocelots roaming the halls at league headquarters—Lee Nguyen (1 goal), Chris Tierney (1 goal) and Scott Caldwell (1 goal). Of note here for the Revolution will be the absence of midfielder Jermaine Jones who just underwent surgery for a hernia. But with Davies and Agudelo both being capable of scoring here and the game being held in New England, the thought here is that the host Revolution will expect to win this fixture while the guest Galaxy will have doubts, being winless on the Road and struggling to mount much of an attack of late.

 

Current Form, Series Trends, Conclusions
The Galaxy will be traveling 2,995.9 miles to play this game on the opposite coast and will have their Body Clocks 3 hours ahead (PT) of the host Revolution’s (ET), and will have slept in a hotel bed the night before, so, huge advantage New England in that Travel respect. The Galaxy (DDDLLW) have also been having problems winning of late, while the Revolution (Current Form: WWDDLD) have been busy earning points like the 1 they did last game here at Home against DC United in a battle of the Eastern Conference’s 1-2 clubs in a 1-1 Draw in Week 12. In this series lifetime, the Revolution are 14-9-18 (57 GF-64 GA) against New England in MLS play and a woeful 7-3-10 (35 GF-24 GA) here at Home against the Galaxy, although the last time they played here the Revolution stomped a mud hole in Los Angeles, 5-0.

As far as that aforementioned trend toward the Over in this series the L4 games have averaged well over 4 goals per game (gpg) with scorelines of LA 2-1, LA 5-1, NE 5-0 and NE 3-1 (at LA). So, that’s a robust 18 goals in the L4 meetings, and usually that kind of recent relevant trend would be enough for an auto-play on the Over (2½), but here is where Art and Science meet in handicapping. The Science (numbers) say to take the Over here, with an average of 4.50 gpg in the last four meetings. But with Los Angeles struggling away from Home so far this season and New England and Shuttleworth having allowed just 4 goals in 7 games here at Gillette Stadium, the feeling is this will be a tough game for the visitors to mount a consistent attack and one where Davies or Agudelo probably gets the game’s lone goal for the Revolution.

Seldom are pinpoint Prop wagers pumped up in this little corner of the Internet, but this is a good game in my eyes to take a shot on an Exact Score prop wager of New England 1-0 (+650, Paddy Power) with your soccer picks for an extremely modest amount. So, the Science (and math) says goals, while the Art and the gut and the feel speak of a low-scoring, tight game at the end of the weekend with both clubs maybe a little tired at the end of the weekend on a Sunday afternoon in late, late May. This could very well end 0-0 or 1-1, but logic says that the hungry hosts find a way to get that first (and maybe only) goal to please the home faithful here with quality scoring attempts are few and far between in this battle between two pretty good MLS clubs in the whole scheme of North American soccer things. The site could be the ultimate difference in this match and the Revolution players still on the squad from that 5-0 romp here in 2013 will draw from that experience. Now go forth and multiply.

Predicted Final Score: Revolution 1 LA Galaxy 0

Major League Soccer Picks: Under 2½ -150 (Ladbrokes), Exact Score Prop: Revolution 1-0 +650 (Paddy Power)

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