KBO’s Preview, Predictions and Betting Odds for July 5th

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KBO’s Preview, Predictions and Betting Odds for July 5th
Photo by Hyoshin Choi

The Hanwha Eagles surprised the Doosan Bears and notched a road win to even the series at one. There will be four rubber matches on Sunday for series wins. It should be an interesting slate with tons of action. Here are the best bets for Sunday’s KBO slate.

LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions

Sunday, July 5, 2020 – 4:00am EST

Probable Pitchers Per MyKBO Website:

  • LG: Jung Chan-heon (4-1 2.56 ERA)
  • Samsung: Choi Chae-heung (5-2 3.43 ERA)

The Samsung Lions used all 12 innings to notch their come-from-behind win in extra innings. The Lions have now won the first two games over the Twins in the three-game series behind plenty of great hitting.

The Lions will pitch Choi Chae-heung who has been really good this season. However, it’s also due to pitching against bad competition. Chae-heung won his last two starts against SK and Hanwha and has faced SK and Hanwha in his last three starts.

Earlier in the season, Chase-heung performed well against LG, notching the win after allowing one run in six innings back in May. He only struck out two in that game and walked one. 

Chae-heung has allowed just one earned run in his last  12 innings, with 11 strikeouts, two walks, and just nine hits.

He finished last season with a 4.81 ERA where batting average of balls in play was .343. This season, it’s sitting at .258, which is much lower than his normal average throughout his career. His average should regress and start to balloon up eventually.

He’ll go up against Jung Chan-heon of the LG Twins. Chan-heon has been tremendous this season, with a 4-1 record and an ERA of 2.56. He also shut the Samsung Lions down in his first start against the team.

He’s now won four straight games and has allowed just five runs in those four wins. He’s absolutely in mid-season form. In the win against Samsung, he went a solid seven innings and struck out 11 batters while allowing just three hits.

He’s currently striking out 8.1 batters per nine innings and walking 2.1 batters per nine innings along with an FIP of 3.49. This is Chan-heon’s first season starting but last season, in the bullpen, he had a 1.64 ERA and a 2.99 FIP. These types of performances haven’t come out of the blue.

Prediction

The Twins have been scoring enough runs to win games. The pitching hasn’t held up in this series but you can expect Chan-heon to do enough in this game to get the win.

The LG Twins have been a hard team to sweep all season long. They’ll survive this one.

KBO Pick:

LG Twins-125
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Kiwoom Heroes vs. KT Wiz

Sunday, July 5, 2020 – 4:00am EST

Probable Pitchers Per MyKBO Website:

  • Kiwoom: Lee Seung-ho (2-2 4.50 ERA)
  • KT: Kim Min-soo (1-2 5.79 ERA)

We’ve got another rubber match on the slate between the Kiwoom Heroes and the KTT Wiz. In the first game of the two, there were minimal runs. In the second game, there were tons of runs. More runs might be in store for this one.

The Kiwoom Heroes will pitch Lee Seung-ho who had an awful outing against KT earlier this season. He went 2.1 innings and allowed eight runs on seven hits, including three long balls.

Seung-ho has won his last two starts and allowed just three runs in 11 innings off 13 hits and no walks.

He’s striking out 5.5 batters per nine innings and walking 2.8 batters per nine innings while his BABIP is currently .311. Seung-ho’s ERA is sitting at 4.50 but his FIP is 4.67, a little bit higher.

He’ll go up against KT’s Kim Min-soo who has also been wrecked by batting average of balls in play. Min-soo’s BABIP is .392. He’s been a bit unlucky but he’s also been hit hard this season. He has an FIP of 4.41 but hasn’t really shown much of anything during his starts.

Min-soo faced Kiwoom in relief earlier this season and pitched .2 innings of scoreless baseball.

Since he’s started, he’s 1-0 in five starts and has allowed just 10 runs in those starts. He’s also starting to go deeper in games as he’s now finished six innings in his last two starts. 

Prediction

Kim Min-soo has been a lot better as of late. However, he doesn’t possess any put-away stuff and Kiwoom’s offense has been really good. I expect this game to be high-scoring but there’s a chance that Min-soo could perform at a high level.

For that reason, I’m going to take the KT Wiz to go over on their team total.

KBO Pick:

KT Wiz Over 4.5 TT-140
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Kia Tigers vs. NC Dinos

Sunday, July 5, 2020 – 4:00am EST

Probable Pitchers Per MyKBO Website:

  • Kia: Aaron Brooks (3-3 2.51 ERA)
  • NC: Mike Wright (6-2 3.70 ERA)

The NC Dinos won the second game of the three-game series and will now look forward to the rubber game of the three-game series. Both teams will send their import pitchers to the mound in what should be a close game.
Aaron Brooks is 3-3 with a 2.51 ERA on the season but he hasn’t won a  game since 6/10. Brooks has allowed just one run in his last two starts but hasn’t won after two quality outings.

Not only is Brooks limiting runs lately but he’s also struck out 14 batters in his last 13 innings. Brooks, on the year, is striking out 8.3 batters per nine innings and walking 1.9 batters per nine innings. He’s got an FIP of 2.90, which is one of the lowest FIP’s in the league, just behind Koo Chang-mo.

Brooks faced the Dinos earlier this and allowed three runs on six hits in 5.2 innings of work. In that game, he struck out a season-high eight and walked one batter.

Former Baltimore Oriole Aaron Brooks – Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images/AFP

He’ll go up against Mike Wright, who is 6-2 with a 3.70 ERA on the season. He’s been worse than his ERA shares as his FIP is near 5, at 4.93. Wright is allowing four walks per nine innings and a homer per nine innings as well.

He’s allowing a ridiculous amount of hits per nine innings after his last three starts as he’s allowed 23 hits in 17 innings. Somehow, he’s been able to get out of damage. At home, he’s also pitched well as he’s 2-0 in four starts this season. In those four starts, he actually has allowed 10 runs which isn’t great but good enough for that Dinos’ offense.

Wright’s strikeouts are also down as he hasn’t surpassed more than four strikeouts in his last four starts. 

Prediction

This is a game where both teams are going to be fighting for the rubber match. I expect both pitchers to perform well to start the game.

Brooks has been the best import pitcher in the league this season while Wright, although struggled against Kia in an outing earlier this season, is still 6-2 with a 3.70 ERA.

I don’t know what’s going to happen late in the game so I’ll take the under in the first five innings in this one.

KBO Pick:

Under 4.5 First 5+102
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