Italian Serie A Soccer Picks: Inter Milan vs. Fiorentina to End in Draw

Kevin Stott

Friday, February 27, 2015 1:15 PM GMT

Milano’s Stadio Giuseppe Meazza is the site of this Week 25 Sunday fixture between Inter Milan and Fiorentina in a clash between two of Serie A’s top teams. With both coming off Europa League games on Thursday, is an Under play worth a look?

Odds Overview
Inter Milan vs. Fiorentina, Sunday 17:00 (BT Sport 1 (UK), 12 p.m. ET/9 a.m. PT): Eighth-place Inter Milan (9-8-7, 39 GF-31 GA) welcome fifth-place Fiorentina (10-9-5, 36 GF-24 GA) to San Siro Stadium in Milan on Sunday for this Serie A Week 25 game and 154th league meeting between two clubs still with actual shots at earning berths in either the UEFA Europa (again) or Champions Leagues (if lucky) next season as well as two teams who will be coming off hosting Leg 2 Knockout Stage Round of 32 games in UEFA Europa League play on Thursday.
Soccer odds are listing host Inter Milan slight +120 favorites with the guests Fiorentina +229 underdogs and the Draw lined at +240 in the Three-Way (Winner) marketplace (bet365). The Total Goals in the posted Seria A odds is set at 2½ (Under -111, Over -111; bet365) with the Both Teams To Score Prop odds having the Yes priced at -125 and the No at +100 (BetVictor). Some other props: Half Time/Full Time: Inter Milan/Inter Milan +260; Draw/Draw +450; Draw/Inter Milan +400; Draw/Fiorentina +600; Inter Milan/Draw +1400; Fiorentina/Draw +1400; Fiorentina/Inter Milan +2500; and, Inter Milan/Fiorentina +3300, bet365); and, First Goalscorer: Xherdan Shaqiri +700 (Pretty much everywhere, including bet365, Sky Bet, William Hill, BetVictor and Paddy Power).


ACF Fiorentina
Fiorentina (6-3-3 Away, 20 GF-13 GA) host Tottenham Hotspur in its Knockout Stage Round of 32 Europa League series on Thursday (Fox Sports 2, 1 p.m./10 a.m. PT) and I Viola (The Purple) head into this meeting with Spurs unbeaten in their L10 but without the services of regular GK Ciprian Tatarusanu, so, 25-year-old Brazilian Norberto Neto was scheduled to get the start. Here, on Sunday at Milan against Inter, the visitors will look for striker Mario Gómez (Anytime Goalscorer +210, SkyBet), Babacar Khouma (+210), Federico Bernardeschi (+250), Josip Ilicic (+375), Joaquín (+550), Alberto Aquilini (+550), recent Chelsea-loanee Mohamed Salah (+300), attacking midfielder Alessandro Diamanti (+300) or maybe even Chinese Super League Guangzhou Evergrande-loanee Alberto Gilardino (+210) for a precious goal or two, and, if Manager Vincenzo Montella can somehow find a way to get The Purple a win and the 3 points here, Fiorentina can move to 42 points and leave Inter still sitting on 35 (points), almost ensuring it will finish ahead of the hosts in the Serie A standings with less than three months to play. And a Fiorentina win combined with either at Lazio loss or draw at Sassuolo on Sunday would also let the Tuscans of Viola leapfrog the 4th-place I Biancocelesti (The White and Sky Blues) in the Italian top flight table. But like Inter Milan, playing its third game in a little more than a week, Fiorentina—which sold talented attacking midfielder Juan Cuadrado to Chelsea over the January Transfer Window—could definitely be a little bit weary here. As could the hosts.


Internazionale
As discussed, Internazionale (5-3-3 Home, 24 GF-14 GA)—winners of three straight in league play—also have to play a Thursday UEFA Europa League Knockout Stage Round of 32 Leg 2 fixture, theirs here at Home in Milan against Scottish giant Celtic, so, Manager Roberto Mancini’s Nerazzurri (Black and Blues) could also be a bit worn down by the time this one kicks off on Sunday in Milan and thoughts of a 0-0 Halftime Score are now dancing merrily through my head (+200, Spreadex). Bring on the Dancing Pigs, Pablo.


Inter Milan has a number of players who could be score here against Fiorentina including the prolific Mauro Icardi (tied for Serie A lead with 14 goals; Anytime Scorer +125, SkyBet), recent Bayern Munich-signee Xherdan Shaqiri (+225), Rodrigo Palacio (+240), Arsenal loanee Lukas Podolski (+175, Sky Bet), Hernanes (+210), forward George Pu?ca? (+300), Federico Bonazzoli (+250), Fredy Guarin (+375) and 20-year-old Mateo Kovacic (+375). With so many potential goal scorers like Fiorentina’s Gómez and Khouma and Inter’s electric Icardi and Shaqiri, the Both Teams To Score bet seems really appetizing and defenders could be tired for this tilt. But whether or not that ends up being a good thing for the Over or the Under is just too hard to handicap, although it seems the Over would be a safer play with a mistake maybe meaning that extra goal that puts the game over the posted 2½ Total goals.


Best Betting Approaches and Trends
European soccer legends Internazionale lead this series in Serie A play, going 63-50-40 (230 GF-190 GA) against Fiorentina overall and 45-13-18 (146 GF-77 GA) against I Viola here at the San Siro. Inter Milan have W12 consecutive here at Home against Fiorentina, keeping a Clean sheet in 6 of those 12 Serie A meetings. But, the Tuscans 77 goals at Inter Milan are the most the hosts have allowed to an Italian side, so this could evolve into a shootout, especially knowing that Fiorentina have allowed goals in 10 straight league games. The Purple are also unbeaten in their L7 (4-3-0)—conceding and scoring in all 7—and rolled to an easy 3-0 victory in Week 6 when these two clubs met earlier this season. But when they played here at San Siro last season, Inter Milan won 2-1 and I Nerazzurri have to be confident knowing they haven’t lost to this Tuscan side here in the L12 meetings. But with both tired and so much at stake, it seems the safest and simplest approach may be to attack this from the Both Teams To Score angle and maybe also sprinkle un po soldi on the Draw as your soccer pick, knowing that quite often Serie A is a tie-friendly league. And when I say tie, I mean draw and not tie like game or tie like necktie. So, tie in the context of scoring—or possibly not scoring (0-0)—the same number of goals. I know. It gets confusing. Life’s like that, bruh. We’re all Aliens. Godere mio amico.


Predicted Final: Inter Milan 1 Fiorentina 1
Free Serie A Picks: Both Teams To Score Yes -125 (Boyle Sports), Draw +240 (bet365)

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