Italia Serie A Soccer Picks: Will Tevez & Juventus Put Roma in Its Place on Monday?

Lee Phelps

Friday, February 27, 2015 2:10 PM GMT

Friday, Feb. 27, 2015 2:10 PM GMT

Monday night is a big night for Roma in Serie A, with arguably their last chance at winning the title on the line. William Hill's Lee Phelps is looking at the betting odds to make his free picks

On the face of it a top-of-the-table clash in Serie A should be a mouth-watering occasion, but this time Roma vs Juventus lacks some sparkle. Even resounding a home win probably wouldn’t alter the title race, with Juve leading by nine points going into Monday’s match.

 

Roma
Roma are on a run of one win in five or one defeat in 15 depending on how full or empty your glass is. The point is they draw too many games, with over a third of their league games ending in a stalemate, which you should keep in mind when looking at the Serie A betting odds. Putting that into context turning just three of those points into three would mean this game was crucial.

Even with a victory, Juve would have to drop seven more points and Roma would have to win all 13 remaining matches.

Both sides have been involved in European action this midweek, although Juventus’ home game against Dortmund on Tuesday is a bit different to an away game in the Netherlands on a Thursday.

The added fatigue may be an issue, but more important than all of that is the home form. Rudi Garcia’s team haven’t won a match (in 90 minutes) at the Stadio Olimpico since November 30th, a total of nine matches.

 

Juventus
The runaway league leaders beat Dortmund 2-1 this week, with that man Carlos Tevez bagging another goal and keeping the Champions League hopes alive. The away goals was an obvious disappointment to the home team though and does show one of their few weaknesses this season and a potential angle in for us from a betting perspective.

The away side’s form hasn’t dipped this season despite the change in head coach Massimilliao Allegri has maintained the Antonio Conte form, especially at home. They have drawn three of the last five on the road at teams they would have expected to beat, but it’s possible with the lead at the top and their imperious home form (47 unbeaten) that they are coasting to the title.

I don’t see any coasting here though, with their nearest rivals offering a tougher test than they have had of late.

The head-to-heads are interesting and paint a picture of free flowing games in Turin, with goals and red cards, but low scoring tense games in Rome. The last five home matches for Roma against Juve have all gone under 2.5 goals all gone under.

 

Soccer picks
Since 2011 four of the last five matches between the two at the Stadio Olimpico have seen No land in the Both Teams To Score market and that is  2.0 (Evs) to land this time.

I’m keen on that and also keen on Juventus putting Roma firmly in their place. There are a few ways of playing for me. Juve win and under 2.5 goals is 4.75 (15/4), while the 0-1 correct score is 7.0 (6/1).

I also like Tevez to add to his 14 league goals. He netted two penalties in the 3-2 home win over Monday’s opponents and looks a tasty Soccer Pick at 2.9 (19/10).

Free soccer pick: Carlos Tevez anytime goal 2.9 (19/10)

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