Is There Underdog Value In Murray vs. Raonic's Australian Open Match?

Jim Makos

Thursday, January 28, 2016 6:28 PM GMT

It's not easy to tip a huge underdog in tennis betting, and today we do it with Murray & Raonic's game. But when the dynamics justify it, the rewards that may far exceed the risk!

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Free Tennis Pick: Raonic +220
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

 

Milos Raonic has reached the semifinals in the Australian Open against the odds. He’s just one game away from the Grand Slam’s final, where he or Andy Murray will be competing against the winner of the epic battle between Djokovic and Federer. For the semifinal that takes place on Thursday my money would go on Djokovic, but betting-wise I find Friday’s semifinal more interesting.

I remind you that last Sunday I tipped Raonic, right before his win versus Wawrinka. Back then his odds were trading at 30 (+2900) but you won’t find higher odds than 15 (+1400) nowadays.

Today I am predicting that he stands a good chance to make it through against the favorite, Murray. It may come as a shocker though, that my prediction is not based on the game’s tennis odds rather than the Australian Open winner odds! Let’s see why.

 

The Australian Open Winner Market
Due to this market being available for weeks or even months, odds behavior can be trusted more as the charts are much more reliable, not to mention that it hasn’t been too much action on the game’s actual odds. So, Raonic’s odds show a very strong downtrend which has picked up momentum, following his recent top performance against higher-ranked players, such as Wawrinka and Monfils.

His odds are trading at around 10-15 (900-1400) at several sportsbooks online, which has been their lowest price obviously. 
Now, let’s take a look at Murray’s respective chart.

Andy’s odds are declining, yet the decline isn’t that impressive as Raonic. Of course, that is expected, given Murray was the second favorite for the title on the tournament’s opening game. What’s worrying though is that odds, haven’t yet printed a new lower low, at least at William Hill. Notice that the support level (red line) hasn’t yet failed, as the UK bookmaker hasn’t offered odds lower than 5.0 (+4900). And while that support is based on odds that were available back in October, it’s not a factor cappers may want to ignore, if their tennis picks are based on betting trends and crowd behavior.

Combining that fact with the powerful momentum that has been built up in Raonic’s odds chart, I’m going with the underdog here. Surely, Murray is the favorite in Friday’s semifinal. However, the reward/risk ratio is far superior in the case of Raonic, given his implied probability seems much higher considering the odds action. I’m picking Raonic today and pray that the momentum carries on!