Indy 500 Picks, Predictions & Odds 2023: Will Dixon Finally Get 2nd Win?

From leading contenders to an appealing long shot, our Indianapolis 500 picks and predictions offer everything you need to get set for the 107th edition of The Greatest Spectacle in Racing. Let's dive in with our Indy 500 picks based on the odds from our best sports betting sites.

It doesn’t get any better than the Sunday of Memorial Day weekend for motorsports fans. The meat in the sandwich of the biggest race day of the year is the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing," the Indianapolis 500.

It'll be the 107th running of the Indy 500 in 2023, a race first held in 1911. The famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway was a two-mile brick track back then. Bricks still adorn the start/finish line at the modern asphalt surface, awaiting a smooch from the winning driver on Sunday.

Marcus Ericsson capitalized on a second-row starting spot in 2022 and went on to win IndyCar’s biggest race of the year. Chip Ganassi Racing figures to hold a good chance of returning to victory lane this weekend. Alex Palou, Ericsson’s teammate,  secured the pole position and is the favorite by the Indy 500 odds. The quartet of Arrow McLaren entries was also fast during qualifying.

Here are our best bets and 2023 Indy 500 picks for the race held at Indianapolis Motor Speedway (odds via PointsBet and FanDuel; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Indy 500 picks to win

• Scott Dixon (+800 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐
• Alexander Rossi (+1200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
• Helio Castroneves (+4500 via FanDuel) ⭐

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Indy 500 odds

Indy 500 predictions

Scott Dixon (+800 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐

New Zealander Scott Dixon has been a fixture of the NTT IndyCar Series for as long as most can remember. He's a six-time series champion and has been in the thick of the points battle on countless other occasions. Yet, despite all of Dixon’s success, his first Indianapolis 500 victory in 2008 still stands as his only triumph in the sport’s biggest race.

Bad luck has been following Dixon at the Indy 500 in recent years. He's piloted the No. 9 Chip Ganassi Racing Honda to the pole position with stellar practice and qualifying in two straight seasons. But issues on pit road during the race proved to be the nail in the coffin both years.

His unraveling in 2022 was particularly sickening after Dixon led a race-high 95 laps and clearly looked like he was driving the car to beat. Now he'll line up on the second row and in the sixth starting position. Perhaps not needing to carry the weight of being the pole sitter will help reduce some of the pressure for the veteran driver and his pit crew.

A mix of Indy 500 veterans and fast, young drivers will surround Dixon on the first several rows. He may only hold one previous win during this prestigious race, but few have been as consistent as “The Iceman” over the years.

Assuming that his crew can avoid committing self-inflicted wounds, a +850 price on Dixon makes for a very compelling wager.

Alexander Rossi (+1200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

Rossi is in a bit of a unique situation, as this will be his first Indianapolis 500 driving for Arrow McLaren. Given how fast all of the McLaren Chevrolets have been, the organization is overdue to secure its first outright win of the 2023 campaign.

Like Scott Dixon, Rossi has been a contender in this race seemingly every year. However, he's only guzzled milk after the Indy 500 once, with that triumph coming back in 2016. Aside from a pair of DNFs in 2020 and 2021, Rossi has been a top Indy 500 finisher on an annual basis. A fifth-place run in 2022 marked his fourth top-five and fifth top-seven finish across the last seven campaigns.

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Rossi will line up in the first car on Row 3 after qualifying seventh. All four Arrow McLaren cars will be starting on the first three rows, a true testament to how fast Rossi and his teammates will be on Sunday. Rossi was also a contender during the only previous oval race this season at Texas before mechanical issues ruined his day.

A +1300 price on a driver with a proven history of success in the sport’s biggest race is certainly intriguing. FanDuel’s odds become that much more attractive with other books pricing Rossi at +1000.

Helio Castroneves (+4500 via FanDuel) ⭐

If there’s any driver in the Indianapolis 500 field capable of overcoming a lackluster qualifying run and starting spot, it’s Helio Castroneves. The Brazilian is a four-time Indy 500 winner, with his most recent triumph coming just two years ago. 

Castroneves did benefit from starting seventh during the 2021 race, but other recent results only further his credibility as a long-shot contender. He finished runner-up to Takuma Sato after starting 19th in 2017. Castroneves then turned the 28th starting spot into an 11th-place finish in 2018. And he placed seventh after once again starting on the last few rows in 2022.

For many drivers, a 20th-place starting position would doom any hopes of chugging milk in victory lane. That's not the case with Castroneves, who has made “The Brickyard” his own personal playground throughout the veteran's storied career.

Castroneves has driven the No. 6 Honda during each of the last two Indy 500s. Meyer Shank Racing may not have the equipment to compete on a weekly basis, but that hasn’t prevented Castroneves from turning in quality runs during the biggest race of the year. With most books listing his outright odds at +4000, FanDuel’s +4500 price offers a slightly greater return.

Indy 500 info

Date: Sunday, May 28, 12:45 p.m. ET
Location: Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Indianapolis, IN
How to watch: NBC
Defending winner: Marcus Ericsson

Indy 500 picks made 5/27/2023 at 10 p.m. ET

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