Indianapolis 500 Odds, Picks, and Preview: Castroneves a Longshot to Defend Title

The 106th edition of the "Greatest Spectacle in Racing" takes place on Sunday. From pole-sitter Scott Dixon to defending champion Helio Castroneves, we run down the big names and best outright picks to win the prestigious Indianapolis 500.

Race fans, start your engines! Memorial Day Weekend is upon us. As per tradition, that means that the "Greatest Spectacle in Racing" on the annual motorsports calendar is also on the horizon. The 2022 Indianapolis 500 will run Sunday afternoon. This will be the 106th running of the most prestigious open-wheel auto race in the world.

The build-up to the Indy 500 began a full week in advance with practice and qualifying. NTT Data IndyCar Series veteran Scott Dixon was able to nail down the pole position in the Indianapolis 500 starting lineup. He even managed to make a little history in the process by accumulating the fastest four-lap average qualifying speed in Indy 500 history.

Thirty-two other drivers are all that stand in the way of Dixon winning his second Indianapolis 500 on Sunday. From defending champion and four-time Indy 500 winner Helio Castroneves to seven-time NASCAR Cup Series Champion and Indy 500 rookie Jimmie Johnson, the field for this year’s race packs quite the punch.

For bettors, successfully handicapping this race comes down to a mix of driver stats, data obtained from qualifying and a little bit of luck. After all, this is the Indianapolis 500. One simply cannot describe just how difficult it truly is to win this prestigious race.

Here are my outright race winner picks for Sunday’s Indianapolis 500 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetRivers; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

Indianapolis 500 Race Info

When: Sunday, May 29, 11 a.m. ETWhere: Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Indianapolis, INHow to watch: NBC, Peacock, UniversoDefending winner: Helio Castroneves2022 Favorite: Scott Dixon

Indianapolis 500 Odds

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Indianapolis 500 Odds Analysis

It comes as no surprise that Dixon is the consensus betting favorite to win the 2022 Indianapolis 500. This marks the second straight year in which the “Flying Kiwi” has been the Indy 500 favorite. It comes with the territory of starting from the pole position. Dixon also led the field to green last year, and thoroughly one-upped himself last weekend by setting the all-time qualifying speed record for this race.

Dixon’s Chip Ganassi Racing teammate and defending IndyCar Series Champion Alex Palou will also start on the front row on Sunday. He is a close second choice to his veteran teammate and is even priced as a co-favorite at some of our top-rated sportsbooks.

The final leg of the three-car front row for the 2022 Indy 500 is young Rinus VeeKay. Along with his teammate and boss, Ed Carpenter, VeeKay is one of just two non-Chip Ganassi drivers that will start on the front two rows for Sunday’s race. He can be found at favorable double-digit prices across the betting market. Such is also the case for the two CGR drivers who will start on Row 2, Marcus Ericsson and 2013 Indy 500 winner Tony Kanaan.

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Indianapolis 500 Picks

Alex Palou (+700 via BetRivers)Pato O’Ward (+1200 via FanDuel)Marcus Ericsson (+1800 via DraftKings)Takuma Sato (+2200 via FanDuel)Graham Rahal (+4000 via BetRivers)

Who Will Win the Indianapolis 500?

Palou (+700)

When it comes to the Chip Ganassi Racing duo that will start from the front row, we are splitting hairs. While Dixon certainly has the experience edge over Palou, the 25-year-old Spaniard has come up fast in the IndyCar Series. Palou surprised many by winning the 2021 NTT Data IndyCar Series Championship. After a strong run in qualifying, perhaps an Indy 500 win could also come sooner than expected.

This will be Palou’s third crack at winning the most prestigious auto race in the world. He nearly accomplished the feat last year, only to succumb to Castroneves in the closing laps. Palou still hung on to finish runner-up after having his Indianapolis 500 debut cut short the previous year.

While he has yet to win a race in the 2022 IndyCar season, Palou does have three top-5 finishes and four top-10 results through five races. He sits second to Will Power in the point standings. With a prime starting spot and CGR mastery on his pit box, it’s hard to argue with a 7-1 ticket on Palou to win the 2022 Indy 500.

O'Ward (+1200)

This will also be the third Indianapolis 500 start for Mexican driver, Pato O’Ward. He may be only 23 years old, but O’Ward has shown out in his first two Indy 500 appearances. He is 2-for-2 in top-10 finishes. After finishing sixth in his debut appearance two years ago, O’Ward upped his showing to fourth last season.

The Arrow McLaren SP driver will start seventh in this year’s 500 after a solid qualifying run. O’Ward has been one of the fastest drivers in the IndyCar Series dating back to last season. While consistency has plagued him a bit early on in the 2022 campaign, he has two top-5 finishes including an outright victory in the Grand Prix of Alabama late last month.

While he has only run in the Indy 500 twice before, O’Ward is one of the few drivers who can claim to have a better average finish (5.0) than average starting position (13.5). He is an enticing bet to make at 12-1 odds.

Ericsson (+1800)

The Chip Ganassi Racing fleet will have five cars in Sunday’s Indianapolis 500 field. Of the bunch, Ericsson is easily the most overlooked. This is only natural considering his teammates include Dixon, Palou, former Indy 500 winner Tony Kanaan, and Johnson. Considering that he was fast enough in qualifying to draw a top-5 starting spot, an 18-1 price on Ericsson to win the 500 is certainly competitive.

When it comes to Ericsson’s history at “The Brickyard”, he doesn’t have a lot going for him. In three previous Indy 500 starts, he has an average finish of 22.0 and not a single top-10 placing. However, the Swede notably had his best-ever showing in the prestigious race a year ago when he finished 11th.

In recent years, having a high starting spot has been vital to winning the Indianapolis 500. Castroneves won the race after starting eighth last year. That result snapped a streak of four straight Indy 500 winners who started fourth or better. Ericsson may not have a top-4 starting spot, but he sits just outside of that. An 18-1 price for a driver who will begin the race on the second row is worth a look.

Sato (+2200)

When it comes to high-profile auto races like the Indianapolis 500, experience and a proven track record of success are two factors worth considering when choosing betting picks. It certainly paid off a year ago as Castroneves claimed a record-tying fourth Indy 500 victory. Only two other drivers in this year’s field have won the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing” multiple times before. Japan’s Takuma Sato is the name to monitor ahead of Sunday’s race.

Sato’s history in the Indy 500 has truly been of the all-or-nothing variety. In a dozen starts, he has hoisted the Borg-Warner Trophy on two occasions in 2017 and 2020. Aside from those two victories, he has all of one additional top-10 finish in this race.

Despite the lackluster average finish, Sato has proven on multiple occasions that he knows how to win this race. He will start 10th on Sunday driving for Dale Coyne and Rick Ware Racing. Combine his experience with a solid starting spot and Sato is not one to sleep on.

Rahal (+4000)

Last year will go down as the Indy 500 win that Graham Rahal let get away. Those who only tuned in for the final laps wouldn’t have known so given that Rahal was knocked out of the race altogether midway through. The DNF result was hardly a true indicator of just how fast his car was.

Failure by his crew to secure the left rear tire on a green flag stop caused the wheel to fly off as Rahal exited pit road. He slammed the fence and sustained irreparable damage as a result. Rahal will aim for a reprieve on Sunday in what will be his 15th career Indianapolis 500 start. In his 14 prior appearances, the American has scored a trio of top-5 finishes.

Rahal’s lackluster qualifying run undoubtedly is a big reason why he is priced as a 40-1 longshot. He will start 21st when the green flag drops on Sunday’s race. One would have to go back to 2005 to find the last time the Indy 500 race winner started outside of the top-20. With that said, if anyone can replicate what the late Dan Wheldon accomplished after starting 26th that year, it would be Rahal.

Past Indy 500 Winners

2021: Helio Castroneves2020: Takuma Sato2019: Simon Pagenaud2018: Will Power2017: Takuma Sato2016: Alexander Rossi2015: Juan Pablo Montoya2014: Ryan Junter-Reay2013: Tony Kanaan2012: Dario Franchitti

Where to Bet on the Indianapolis 500

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Indianapolis 500 picks made on 5/27/2022 at 4:15 p.m. ET.