How to Bet UFC On Fox 21 Main Event: Maia vs Condit

Andreas Hale

Saturday, August 27, 2016 1:43 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 27, 2016 1:43 PM UTC

UFC on Fox 21 features a main event has potential of being a real top class fight. We take a close look into the showdown between #3 ranked Demian Mai and #4 ranked Carlos Condit. Check our free pick. 

The main event of this weekend’s UFC on Fox 21 card features a compelling showdown between #3 ranked Demian Mai and #4 ranked Carlos Condit. The current UFC odds rightfully favor Condit over Maia, despite the fact that Condit is 2-4 in his last six fights. Don’t let Condit’s recent record fool you because it certainly isn’t a reflection of the talented fighter that Condit has been.

Condit lopped a few years off of the fighting career of the then-welterweight champion Robbie Lawler when he dropped a split decision back in January in a fight that many thought he should have won. One could argue that Condit prepped Lawler to be knocked over by Tyron Woodley. Prior to that, a loss to current UFC welterweight champion Woodley came by a doctor stoppage due to Condit suffering a knee injury and The Natural Born Killer’s losses to Johny Hendricks and Georges St-Pierre were highly competitive affairs.

As for Maia, his resurgence has come courtesy of a five fight-winning streak. However, he hasn’t faced the caliber of fighters that Condit has faced. That doesn’t mean that Maia doesn’t deserve to be in this fight. It simply suggests that this will be a major step up in competition. To his credit, Maia is arguably the greatest jiu-jitsu practitioner in all of MMA. His ground game is so superior to the competition that it became a detriment to his overall ability because fighters would absolutely refuse to engage in a grappling match with the Brazilian. To combat that, Maia has worked diligently on his striking and wrestling so that opponents would have to worry about more than being submitted. His striking isn’t extraordinary, but it certainly is serviceable as evidenced by his recent performances while his wrestling allows him more opportunities to drag the fight to the canvas and search for a submission.

So, for the betting crowd, what do we make of this fight? Personally, I feel that Maia being a +100 is being far too generous while Condit could have some value at -120 if you have some money to cough up in order to put in a hefty bet.

To be clear, Carlos Condit will not be winning this fight by submission and Maia will certainly not score a knockout over Condit. There won’t be any surprises here. In 39 fights, Condit has never been knocked out. However, 28 of his 30 victories have come within the distance with 15 knockouts and 13 submissions. But Maia has never been submitted and has only been stopped when he foolishly jumped into a Nate Marquardt right hand back at UFC 102. Of his 23 wins, 11 have been by submission. He hasn’t scored an actual knockout since his first MMA fight in 2001 (his other 2 TKO wins were due to injury). If you want to bet a Maia via knockout or Condit via submission you have better ways to donate your money.

I like Condit’s chances here via knockout or decision. His losses have come at exceptional strikers or superior wrestlers, of which Maia is neither. When Condit smells blood in the water he’ll go for the finish and does so intelligently. However, if he wants to stand outside and outpoint Maia, there’s not much that Maia can do about it outside of hope that Condit has an off night or is inflicted with an injury in the middle of the fight.

If you have the money to spend, the best MMA pick would be to put it on The Natural Born Killer and take a chance on a prop bet that shows value in an early stoppage.

As for the rest of the card…

Anthony Pettis makes his featherweight debut in the co-main event against Charles Oliveira. Although Pettis is a -170, I struggle mightily with finding any reason to put money on him. It’s not as much the weight as it is what’s going on mentally with Pettis. He’s an extraordinary talent who should be a huge favorite against Oliveira. However, should he have any mental lapses in the cage, Oliveira is more than capable of dragging this fight into deep waters in an attempt to drown the former lightweight champion. It’s too risky either way so I’d just stay away.

Paige VanZant returns from her time on “Dancing With The Stars” with a newfound celebrity as she faces Bec Rawlings. I still feel like the sportsbooks are far too generous to VanZant and making her a -200 favorite is a terrible idea. Which is why I would drop a few dollars on Rawlings if you can snag her at a +185 or higher. VanZant is still a work in progress and was utterly dominated by Rose Namajunas in her last fight before suffering a 5th round submission. Her victories have come against fighters who are of the same caliber as the ones that Rawlings has faced. Although Rawlings is 2-2 in her last four, the division is still evolving and her style meshes well with VanZant’s. I would toss a few dollars at Rawlings because there is some value there. But if you like VanZant, stay far away.  

Free UFC Pick: Carlos Condit -115
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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