How To Bet UFC John Lineker vs. John Dodson

John Lineker celebrating after a fight

Jason Lake

Thursday, September 29, 2016 12:54 AM GMT

John Lineker may be on a five-fight win streak, but he is the underdog on the UFC odds board for Saturday's tilt with former Flyweight contender John Dodson.

We've been burned by John Lineker before. But when we took Michael McDonald to beat him in July at Fight Night 91, McDonald was a value UFC pick at +155. Now it's Lineker who's the underdog for Saturday's Fight Night 96 main event against John Dodson. At press time, Lineker is widely available at +105 to Dodson's –125 at Heritage, where you can get a 50% Cash Bonus. But the question is who's the value pick now?


Prop Wash
Actually, this being a Bantamweight fight, our first instinct here at the ranch was to head straight for the UFC props market. Smaller fighters tend to go the distance more than their bulked-up counterparts, but this isn't the right matchup for that wager. Lineker (28-7 lifetime, 9-2 UFC) is one of the heaviest hitters in his division, scoring 13 wins by knockout, and adding four submissions for good measure. Dodson (18-7 lifetime, 6-2 UFC), who returns to Bantamweight after twice failing to beat Demetrious Johnson for the Flyweight title, has nine knockouts and two tap-outs to his credit.

So we're looking at the moneyline instead, and it's hard not to conclude that Lineker is the sharper pick on the UFC odds board. There was a big early push on Lineker when he opened last month at –105, driving the line to –125; since then, the odds have slowly drifted in Dodson's direction, making him the slim favorite at press time. There's definitely an arbitrage play available if you had Dodson at +105 back in August.


Reach for the Top
The tale of the tape is Lineker's side, too. He's six years younger than Dodson, who just turned 33 on Monday, and according to FightMetric, Lineker is a higher-volume striker, landing 5.68 times per minute to Dodson's 3.17 with a little more accuracy. Lineker is also more successful with his takedowns, although Saturday's fight isn't likely to end up on the ground.

Dodson does have the best training available in Jackson-Wink MMA, so we're not inclined to put too much money on the underdog. However, Lineker has to be our MMA pick in this situation. Dodson has the higher profile thanks to his two title matches, but he's going to have a hard time getting through Lineker's reach, and he could end up running out of steam in the middle rounds if the quick knockout isn't there.

 

Free UFC Pick: Lineker +110
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
Record: 8-3 ML, 1-1 Totals, 9-3 Props (+8.19 units)

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