How To Bet UFC Fight Night 119

Andreas Hale

Thursday, October 26, 2017 1:26 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 26, 2017 1:26 PM UTC

The UFC continues its torrid run of events that will take place every weekend until the end of the year with UFC Fight Night 119 in Sao Paulo, Brazil headlined by Derek Brunson taking on the returning Lyoto Machida.

The lineup for this event has a significant amount of betting value with three fights that I’ll highlight, in particular.

The main event finds Brunson looking to put together a winning streak coming off his recent knockout of Dan Kelly when he faces Machida, who hasn’t fought since 2015 after failing a drug test.

What’s interesting here is that Machida is now 39 and coming off back to back losses when he was finished by Yoel Romero and Luke Rockhold in 2015. While it is difficult to see him ever returning to the form that helped him secure the UFC light heavyweight title, there are some smoke and mirrors when it comes to his opponent.

Before losing a pair of fights to Robert Whittaker and Anderson Silva (the latter being controversial), Brunson went on a streak of beating five fighters in a row and knockout out four of them. But if you look at his record, he’s struggled when stepping up in competition. Aside from Lorenz Larkin, you’ll be hard pressed to find an elite fighter that he’s defeated. Whittaker and Yoel Romero both knocked him out. Nevertheless, Brunson is a -160 favorite while Machida is at +140. But what may be just as intriguing as the line is the fact that you can find a betting line of +135 for the fight to go over 2.5 rounds. Although both fighters have had a great deal of stoppages in their recent fights, I suggest taking the over considering Machida’s awkward style. He may not be as evasive as he once was, but he should be able to remain upright unless his age truly hampers him. As for who to pick, I like Machida given the line. His style makes overly aggressive strikers pay and Brunson isn’t necessarily the most polished striker who often overcommits on his punches.

Free UFC Picks: Lyoto Machida (+140) & Over 2.5 roundsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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The co-main event finds Demian Maia guarding the path to UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley against Colby Covington. Prior to his loss to Woodley, Maia peeled off seven consecutive wins against the likes of Jorge Masvidal, Carlos Condit, Matt Brown and Gunnar Nelson. As for Covington, he’s won four in a row and is coming off of a unanimous decision against Dong Hyun Kim. It’s no secret that Covington has developed a rivalry with Woodley on social media and this is a fast track to what could be an intriguing title fight.

Not so fast. Although Covington sports a 12-1 record and is a slight favorite at -135, he may be biting off more than he can chew with Maia. What jumps out is that Covington isn’t a knockout artist and his strengths (wrestling and grappling) play right into what Maia is arguably the best in all of MMA at. And if Covington’s ego gets the best of him, he’ll bury himself in a grappling contest with Maia. Perhaps Covington will take a note out of Tyron Woodley’s fight and keep his distance. But he’s not as dangerous as Woodley and Maia has proven that he can get to just about anybody not named Tyron Woodley.

Unless Covington has an ace up his sleeve that we’re not aware of, I’m siding heavily with Maia and there’s a distinct possibility that this goes under 2.5 rounds (+190).

Free UFC Picks: Demian Maia (+155) & Under 2.5 roundsBest Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Last but certainly not least is Niko Price taking on Vicente Luque in a welterweight tilt. The undefeated Price has been a wrecking machine of sorts since debuting at UFC 207. Aside from testing positive for marijuana when he flattened Alex Moreno and had the result changed to a No Contest, Price has finished all of his opponents inside of the distance. As a matter of fact, he’s stopped all but one of his opponents in his MMA career thus far and his first-round demolition of Alan Jouban in his last fight is proof that Price is a rising star ready for his shot at the big time.

It’s almost bizarre that Luque enters the fight as a -130 favorite despite dropping his last fight to Leon Edwards by decision. Granted, he had reeled off four straight finishes prior to that. But his overall MMA record is relatively pedestrian at 11-6-1. He’s only been stopped once in his MMA career and has proven to be durable. Regardless, Price has proven to be an exceptional talent and taking him at +110 sounds legitimate. Normally, I wouldn’t take issue with picking the under 1.5 rounds here at +140. But given Luque’s durability, he could hang around longer. See what you can find when it comes to Price winning inside the distance because 7.5 minutes is a little too short for my liking.

Free UFC Pick: Niko Price (+115)Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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