How To Bet UFC Fight Night 106

Vitor Belfort

Andreas Hale

Saturday, March 11, 2017 9:56 PM GMT

Saturday, Mar. 11, 2017 9:56 PM GMT

A legend returns to the Octagon for one last hurrah while a new entry in the middleweight division looks to add what would be the biggest name to date to his resume when Vitor Belfort takes on Kelvin Gastelum at UFC Fight Night 106 in Belfort’s home country of Brazil.

UFC cards staged in Brazil are often filled with fighters from the country and UFC Fight Night 106 is no different. Being the home team usually has its advantages, but do they matter for those who are looking to wager on the weekend of fights?

Starting with the main event, Belfort enters as a high as a +340 underdog. He’s lost badly in his last two fights and the 39-year-old is clearly backsliding in the final run of his lauded MMA career. Gastellum, who made his return to the middleweight division with a one-sided drubbing of Tim Kennedy in December, is on a two-fight winning streak with victories against Kennedy and former UFC welterweight champion Johny Hendricks.

But does this justify the wide line? The answer is yes. However, that doesn’t mean you should avoid it.

Yes, Belfort is the rightful underdog and there isn’t a ton of value betting on Gastelum. However, take a look at the over, which currently can be found at +135. Gastelum has looked good in his previous two outings but he is known for wearing down his opponents with his wrestling and ground and pound than his devastating power. It’ll be up to Belfort to remain upright for a round and a half, and Gastelum should have enough respect for the Brazilian to keep this fight going to a decision or a late stoppage. Steer clear of betting the fighters and take a look at the over for some value.

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Another fight to keep an eye on is the co-main event that finds Mauricio “Shogun” Rua facing Gian Villante. Shogun enters the fight as a -140 favorite and is riding a two-fight winning streak. Villante just came back from a loss to score a knockout over Saparbek Safarov. It make sense that Shogun is the favorite but given Villante’s recent history, you should probably look hard at the under at +130 at 5Dimes. Villante. Of his last five fights, Villante has only gone to decision once. It’s likely he’ll look to pressure the weathered Rua in the early going. This could be in his best interest or his detriment as Rua is still a fully capable finisher who has cut the lights off on four of his last six opponents. Although Rua can get old at any moment, I’d probably stay away from betting on either fighter and look at the under.

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The other fight that is worth mentioning from a betting standpoint is the surging Edson Barbosa vs. Beneil Dariush. Barbosa is hovering around a -160 favorite but has been exceptional in his past few fights with wins against former champions Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis. He suffered a loss in an exciting throwdown with Tony Ferguson but has otherwise been close to the top of the division. Dariush does have a common opponent in Michael Johnson (he won a disputed decision while Barboza lost a decision), but his portfolio isn’t as solid. With Barboza’s rangy attack and devastating leg kicks, I fully expect Barboza to take a fun, yet unanimous decision.

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