Back Big Fave Cormier and a Couple of Dogs on UFC 230 Card

Andreas Hale

Sunday, October 28, 2018 1:32 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 28, 2018 1:32 PM UTC

After undergoing a makeover due to injuries and card shuffling, UFC 230 hits New York's Madison Square Garden this weekend. Let's check out the Derrick Lewis-Daniel Cormier main event and other action.

UFC 230 Main Event: Derrick Lewis vs. Daniel CormierSaturday, 11:59 p.m. ETFree UFC Pick: Cormier ML (-700)Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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UFC heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier is a massive favorite (-700) against Derrick Lewis (+500) and for good reason. There will be those that say that Lewis doesn’t deserve the opportunity. However, the "Black Beast" has defeated Francis Ngannou and pulled off a spectacular come-from-behind victory against Alexander Vokov at UFC 229 just a few weeks ago. Aside from his loss to Mark Hunt, Lewis has proven his worth during his tenure in the UFC.

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Daniel Cormier \"You don't wanna punch me\"

Derrick Lewis.... pic.twitter.com/m1ipE9wqPQ

— The MMA Bible (@TheMMABible) October 10, 2018
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There is a considerable difference between Lewis’ victories and the challenge he faces against Cormier. The current champion is more cerebral than Lewis' previous opponents and knows exactly what needs to be done against the heavy-handed Lewis. Cormier is absolutely going to force Lewis to work by deploying his wrestling in an effort to wear him down. This will likely come to fruition at some point in the middle rounds and lead to Cormier scoring a submission victory. They are still heavyweights so there is always the distinct possibility that Lewis could catch Cormier with one of those powerful right hands and end the night. It’s not likely.

Too much to put down to gain anything, but if you had to make a pick, it would be Cormier.

Ronaldo 'Jacare' Souza vs. Chris WeidmanSaturday, 11:30 p.m. ETFree UFC Pick: Souza ML (+160)Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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The co-main event finds Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza stepping in for Luke Rockhold to face former UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman. Although Weidman is 1-3 in his last four fights, he enters the fight a -185 favorite to Souza’s +160. Jacare has had his struggles as well with a 3-3 record in his last six, with losses to Kelvin Gastelum, Robert Whittaker and Yoel Romero.

Weidman has long boasted about his grappling ability and has yet to put them truly on display against a high-level jiu-jitsu practitioner. He’ll have his chance against Souza, who would love nothing more than to grapple with Weidman. They are relatively even from a striking perspective with Weidman having the upper hand from a power perspective. The curiosity is more with Weidman than with Souza as Weidman has to completely change his approach with Rockhold pulling out a week ago.

This gives Souza a minor advantage heading into the fight and it could be worth a swing at, given that Souza is the underdog. Both desperately need wins to remain afloat in the middleweight division. What desperation will force Weidman to do in this fight is up to debate. Depending on how he chooses to approach this fight, Weidman could find himself fighting off submissions and losing a close decision. It’s worth a shot.

Roxanne Modafferi vs. Sijara EubanksSaturday, 9 p.m. ETFree UFC Pick: Modafferi ML (+395)Best Line Offered: Heritage

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The sleeper underdog pick of this weekend is Roxanne Modafferi, who faces TUF finalist Sijara Eubanks on the prelims. Eubanks had an impressive tear through the TUF house before being unable to make weight and had to pull out of her flyweight title fight against Nicco Montano. It was originally reported that Eubanks would face Valentina Shevchenko for the light heavyweight title at UFC 230 but plans changed and Eubanks now finds herself against seasoned veteran Modafferi.

The TUF house can be deceiving as fighters with excellent runs often struggle when they move to three five-minute rounds. Nevertheless, Eubanks comes in as a monster -485 favorite to Modafferi’s +385. One would have to think that Modafferi’s grappling could offset Eubanks’ power. More importantly, there are huge questions regarding whether or not Eubanks will be able to make weight. Even if she does, her cardio could be questionable heading into this fight. Also, she has a lot to prove considering she was set to fight for the title, and may have extra incentive to impress, but none of that will matter to Modafferi.

If Modafferi is able to avoid the power strikes and pulls this to the ground, she has a very good chance of winning and it will pay off for those of us who read the tea leaves heading into this fight.

Take a shot with Modafferi and cash out at the top of the week.

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